Coolie vs War 2: Rajinism Or Hrithik-Jr NTR Jugalbandi, What Will Strike Gold On Day 1?
Coolie became the first Tamil film to cross $2M in pre-sales in North America. And if War 2 beats Pathaan's Rs 55 crore, it will become the highest opener in the YRF spyverse.
Come August 14 and it's going to be a clash of titans at the box office! Six years after the blockbuster YRF spy film War comes its sequel and joining Hrithik Roshan this time is Jr NTR, in his Bollywood debut, and Kiara Advani. On the other hand – and leading this race by a huge margin – is Coolie starring Rajinikanth. And interestingly, both the films will release in multiple languages.
Coolie has already recorded a staggering advance booking, thus becoming the first Tamil film to cross $2 million in premiere pre-sales in North America. The release of a Rajinikanth film is no less than a festival and it's no different this time either. Along with some Indian companies that have declared a day-off, a firm in Singapore has announced a paid holiday for its Tamil workers.
In Chennai, reports reveal that black-market scalpers are selling tickets for as much as Rs 4,500. Another report suggests that Coolie has already generated significant revenue, recovering over 66% of its Rs 375 crore budget before hitting theatres.
Kerala and Karnataka have announced early morning shows starting as soon as 6 am while Tamil Nadu's first screening is set for 9 am in adherence to state government guidelines. As per BookMyShow, the film has recorded one-million interests. On the other hand, 1.1 million users have expressed their interest in War 2. As of Tuesday (August 12), the Ayan Mukerji directorial has garnered advance sales worth Rs 4.1 crore and the numbers refuse to slow down.
All eyes are set to see if the film will be able to beat War's day one figures (Rs 51 crore) or even Shah Rukh Khan's Pathaan (Rs 55 crore) and become the highest opener in the YRF spy universe. But what are our trade guru's predicting? Will Rajinism loom large or the Hrithik-Tarak combo win big? According to trade expert Atul Mohan, the most important centres where 'this clash is going to be interesting' are Hyderabad and Bengaluru.
Will Hyderabad Side With Its Very Own Jr NTR Or Demi-God Rajinikanth?
He explains, 'Bengaluru has a mix of Tamil-speaking Rajini fans and Hindi-speaking audiences. It's a neutral centre and we've to keep a watch on it to understand what kind of trend emerges. Hyderabad has a big Rajinikanth, Nagarjuna and Jr NTR fan-base. These cities are like home-grounds for both Rajinikanth and Jr NTR. In Bengaluru, however, the screen count is still very low for Coolie and War 2 and the advance bookings are still very limited."
As is expected, he reiterates that Tamil Nadu and Kerala are the big markets for Coolie. Chennai-based trade expert Ramesh Bala agrees with Mohan and states that in the southern belt, War 2 has chances of doing well only in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. 'War 2 maybe pulling its weight in the Telugu speaking states and the northern belt but its screen count in the overall southern belt is much lesser," he states.
But the home-ground factor may not favour Jr NTR completely. 'AP and Telangana are Jr NTR's home-ground but Coolie also has Nagarjuna. Rajinikanth too has a big fandom there. His films have a track record of performing well there. Robot and 2.0 are some examples. These are movie-crazy states. Sometimes, what happens is that the fans of Jr NTR's competitors and peers like Allu Arjun, Ram Charan, Mahesh Babu and Pawan Kalyan may start rooting for the other film. That may happen in this case also," Bala elaborates.
More Stars Equates To More Footfalls
According to Bala, another reason why Coolie could hit the jackpot is its star cast – Nagarjuna, Aamir Khan, Upendra, Sathyaraj and Soubin Shahir. 'Coolie is a multi-starrer with stars belonging to each of the southern states. And superstar Rajinikanth is popular all over the country. Aamir is popular in the Hindi belt. Lokesh Kanagaraj-Anirudh Ravichander is a great combination. Needless to say, Coolie carries good buzz. A film with five stars will have an upper hand over a film with two stars. Five stars will pull in five times more fans in theatres," he remarks.
War 2 And It's 'Underwhelming' Buzz
One can't argue that the buzz surrounding War 2 is rather lacklustre, which gives Coolie a generous advantage. Mohan says, 'It's underwhelming. People were so excited to watch Hrithik and Tiger Shroff in War. I'm not seeing the same hype in case of War 2. The trailer received mixed reactions. The music hasn't picked up. Ghungroo and Jai Jai Shivshankar were massive chartbusters. But War 2's Aavan Javan couldn't leave a mark."
He further adds, 'People are trolling the VFX aspect of the film but one can't judge a three-minute trailer of a film made for the big screen on their mobile phones and draw conclusions. The packaging is good. But compared to War or any other YRF spy universe films like Pathaan or Tiger 3, the excitement level is low. But in north India, very few screens will run the Hindi dubbed version of Coolie. So, let's wait and watch."
The reason behind War 2's limited buzz could also be lack of promotions, feels Bala. 'The makers of Coolie have been promoting their film quite aggressively – hosting events and giving many media interviews. The same cannot be said about War 2. Coolie's day one figures could be Rs 100 crore gross. With overseas collections added, it may go up to Rs 150+ crore," he predicts.
The Rajinikanth Euphoria Captures The Globe
Bala, in fact, is also confident Coolie will fare 'much better' than War 2 even at the global box office. Mohan agrees and adds, 'Rajinikanth enjoys a massive fandom in the USA. The south Indian diaspora is spread across the USA, Singapore, Malaysia and Middle-East and these regions are leading the front for Coolie. The Tamil-speaking population is quite high there, so naturally they're waiting to watch Coolie. As for War 2, the UK, Australia and New Zealand should bring good numbers."
Not All Clashes Are Unhealthy
Producer and film business expert Girish Johar feels that a clash often proves beneficial for exhibitors. 'Expectations surrounding both the films are huge. It will be a fantastic day for cinema lovers. Box office will be blazing all guns. There's ample space for multiple releases during a big holiday window. I believe that even in the Hindi-speaking northern market, Coolie will get sufficient space to perform. Down south, War 2 will also create some bit of noise. And looking at the pre-sales, I think War 2 will garner Rs 45+ crore on day one," he tells us.
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