UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

15 hours ago

UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer odds, picks and predictions
In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event is expected to start approximately at 11:15 p.m. ET. The early prelims are slated to begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+) with the prelims scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card set for 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Gastelum (20-9-0) | Pyfer (13-3-0)
Gastelum last fought almost a year ago when he claimed a unanimous-decision victory against Daniel Rodriguez June 22, 2024. It was a nice bounceback for Gastelum as he suffered a submission loss to Sean Brady Dec. 2, 2023. Gastelum is 3-6 in his past 9 fights dating back to April 2019 when he lost a title bout to Israel Adesanya at UFC 236.
Pyfer also hasn't fought since last June when he picked up a Round 1 KO/TKO victory over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303, rebounding from a unanimous-decision setback to Jack Hermansson in a Fight Night main event in February 2024. Pyfer is 5-1 in his last 6 bouts since July 2022.
The veteran Gastelum heads into this fight as a big underdog. He gives away 4 inches in reach and is 5 years older than Pyfer. The significant strikes landed per minute is basically even with Gastelum at 3.74 and Pyfer at 3.72. Gastelum has a 46.66% significant strikes accuracy percentage, while Pyfer is at 41.95%.
The 28-year-old Pyfer has managed a 1.45 takedown average, while Gastelum checks in at 1.10 in the category. On submission average, Pyfer has a 0.87 mark in the category, while Gastelum has posted just a 0.10 mark in that area.
UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line) : Gastelum +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Pyfer -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
: Gastelum +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Pyfer -400 (bet $400 to win $100) Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
2.5 Rounds (Over -135 | Under +100) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -130)
UFC 316: Gastelum vs. Pyfer picks and predictions
Backing Pyfer (-400) will cost 4 times the potential return. That's way too much risk for a singular bet. Even if you were to toss the -400 into a multi-leg parlay, it chips away a lot of value from your betslip.
Pyfer is a punching machine and is tremendous in finding ways to get the knockout. On the flip side, Gastelum is on the downside of his career, dropping 6 of the past 9 bouts (as mentioned). While Gastelum hasn't been knocked out in his career, going 6-0 via the method, eating punches at a rapid rate, whether he is knocked out or not, will leave a bad taste in the mouths of the judges.
Backing PYFER BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) at plus-money is a much better value on the 7-way method of victory line.
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OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play, as Gastelum has the chops as a veteran to hang around even if he is eating punches and falling behind on points in the eyes of the judges.
Pyfer should be able to do much more to get in favor of the judges. For distance, that's neither here nor there, however. He can win via KO/TKO, and via submission, but Gastelum's defense is solid, and his veteran leadership will at least help him hang around to let the judges decide. YES (-105): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a good play at near even-money.
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