Prabowo in Paris: Beyond the Parade, Geopolitical Synergies
The flags of France and Indonesia fly during the Bastille Day military parade in Paris, France, with Indonesian President Prabowo as the guest of honor, July 14, 2025.
After French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Jakarta in May, Prabowo Subianto stood as the guest of honor at the July 14 Bastille Day military parade in Paris. Beyond symbolism, this moment reflected a growing diplomatic, political, and military convergence between France and Indonesia. Given their history, their respective geopolitical situations, and their shared strategic interests, the two countries were meant for each other – and destined to work together. Their rapprochement is less a diplomatic adjustment than a return to structural normality.
France long overlooked the Indonesian reality – its demographic weight, economic rise, and growing geopolitical relevance – focusing instead on other ASEAN partners for various reasons: Malaysia due to the Chirac-Mahathir personal connection, Singapore for trade, and Vietnam for historical ties. It wasn't until 1986 that a French president visited Jakarta, and the second visit came more than three decades later.
A real turning point occurred in 2011, when the two countries elevated their relationship to a strategic partnership. Since then, and probably to catch up, bilateral ties have gained unprecedented momentum, with the partnership now standing as a key pillar of Europe's broader engagement with Southeast Asia.
A Common Geopolitical Language
In an increasingly fragmented 'apolar world,' Paris and Jakarta are natural partners. They often speak the same geopolitical language.
Both are ancient land (or agrarian) and sea powers (Srivijaya was rising as a hegemon when Charlemagne was crowned emperor in 800). Both are regional leaders in their respective organizations (ASEAN and the European Union), with multilateral agencies and driven by the similar diplomatic doctrines, which in both states have been quite consistent since the 1950s: bebas aktif (sovereign, free, and active) in Indonesia and gaullo-mitterrandism in France. Mohamed Hatta's declaration in 1948 about 'paddling between two rocks' foreshadowed de Gaulle's speeches in Mexico or Phnom Penh in the mid-1960s, asserting national independence amid great power rivalry.
In previous crises, it happened that Indonesia's kebebasan (the idea of freedom or sovereignty) overshadowed keaktifan (the need for action and initiative), giving sometimes a feeling of ambiguity, even passivity. In France as well, during the Sarkozy and Hollande mandates, some analysts warned about the end of the French 'singularity,' especially in the Middle East.
The exchange of presidential visits to Jakarta and Paris represents a return to the traditional foundations of diplomacy. Both Macron and Prabowo believe that their nations cannot afford silence or neutrality; as leaders, they show a strong appetite for international relations and are adopting more assertive or disruptive positions than their predecessors. Anchored in strategic autonomy (Macron) or kebebasan, they can engage with great powers and participate in international negotiations to promote a rules-based (rather than hegemonic) order. This explains their consistent positions on current international issues: supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity while maintaining a degree of engagement with Russia, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, avoiding direct confrontation with China – an approach Macron defended at the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue.
There is still much to do, especially in terms of 'human security' (as defined by the United Nations), through a 'coalition of action' or a 'coalition of countries that will not be bullied' – without hegemons but possibly with 'abang' or older brothers (certainly not 'bapak' or fathers), to provide equipment and expertise only if needed. Paris and Jakarta can endorse this role, while acknowledging the 'South momentum,' partly based on the 'Weakness Politics,' in the wake of the 1955 Bandung Conference. This vision is fully consistent with Macron's broader push for a 'third way' in international affairs, recognizing ASEAN's central role in the Indo-Pacific.
Thriving Defense Cooperation
Beyond these uninhibited diplomacies, military cooperation is now the cornerstone of the Franco-Indonesian strategic partnership.
The French defense industry has significantly benefited from Jakarta's ongoing efforts to modernize its armed forces. Since 2021, Indonesia has acquired 42 Rafale fighter jets from Dassault Aviation, two Scorpène-class submarines from Naval Group – built locally by PT PAL with substantial technology transfers – 13 Ground Master 400 long-range radars from Thales, and two Airbus A400M transport aircraft. Today, Indonesia ranks as France's second-largest defense customer in the Indo-Pacific, after India.
These shared military capabilities are matched by growing operational cooperation. The Pégase air projection missions, the Garuda Guerrier land exercises, and the Komodo naval drills all illustrate this deepening strategic alignment. A symbolic milestone came in February 2025, when the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier docked in Lombok – its first port call in Indonesia. French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu travelled to the archipelago and hosted his Indonesian counterpart, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, aboard the flagship vessel, foreshadowing a new chapter of political-military momentum. In August 2025, the French Armed Forces will participate in Super Garuda Shield, the largest multinational joint military exercise in Southeast Asia, organized by the Indonesian National Armed Forces.
Building on this growing interoperability, the two countries launched a 2+2 strategic dialogue, bringing together their foreign and defense ministers – the first time Indonesia has joined such a format with a European partner.
Political Momentum or a New Normal?
As the two countries celebrate the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations, Macron and Prabowo chose to publicly affirm the strength of bilateral ties through two state visits within weeks – a unique diplomatic gesture. But this moment signals something deeper: a maturing strategic bond between two regional powers seeking greater agency in an uncertain world.
The Joint Declaration released in May 2025, titled Horizon 2050, is a compelling example and reflects a shared ambition to deepen cooperation in the years ahead. Its 68 points cover a broad range of areas – from international governance to food security, energy transition, maritime cooperation, biodiversity, higher education, culture, sports, and the rule of law.
As the international order grows increasingly fragmented and transactional, France and Indonesia offer a vision of diplomacy grounded in independence, multilateralism, and pragmatic engagement. In the long term, such bilateral cooperation will serve as a vital bridge between Europe and Southeast Asia, reducing the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the pitfalls of divisive bloc politics.
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Yomiuri Shimbun
11 minutes ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
A Night in D.C. after Trump's National Guard Deployment
The sunlight dimmed along this stretch of U Street to the familiar soundtrack of a city ready for the weekend: rumbling buses taking home tired commuters, high heels clacking along sticky sidewalks and chattering crowds ready to order their first round. Then a group gathered on a street corner with pots and pans, jingling them as the darkness grew closer. They whooped and cheered for a few minutes, a brief moment of joyful resistance seeking to counteract the image of the crime-riddled city described by the president. Among the clubgoers in miniskirts and sweat-soaked T-shirts, there were federal agents hopping in and out of unmarked cars. A protester held a sign reading 'America has no kings.' Police officers were met with boos and phones ready to record. 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The Mainichi
7 hours ago
- The Mainichi
European leaders to join Ukraine's Zelenskyy for meeting with Trump
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) -- European and NATO leaders announced Sunday they will join President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington to present a united front in talks with President Donald Trump on ending Russia's war in Ukraine and firming up U.S. security guarantees now on the negotiating table. Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Finland are rallying around the Ukrainian president after his exclusion from Trump's summit on Friday with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their pledge to be at Zelenskyy's side at the White House on Monday is an apparent effort to ensure the meeting goes better than the last one in February, when Trump berated Zelenskyy in a heated Oval Office encounter. "The Europeans are very afraid of the Oval Office scene being repeated and so they want to support Mr. Zelenskyy to the hilt," said retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand, a former head of France's military mission at the United Nations. "It's a power struggle and a position of strength that might work with Trump," he said. Putin agreed at his summit in Alaska with Trump that the U.S. and its European allies could offer Ukraine a security guarantee resembling NATO's collective defense mandate as part of an eventual deal to end the 3 1/2-year war, special U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said in an interview Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." It "was the first time we had ever heard the Russians agree to that," said Witkoff, who called it "game-changing." Later, French President Emmanuel Macron said the European delegation will ask Trump to back plans they drafted to beef-up Ukraine's armed forces -- already Europe's largest outside of Russia -- with more training and equipment to secure any peace. "We need a credible format for the Ukrainian army, that's the first point, and say -- we Europeans and Americans -- how we'll train them, equip them, and finance this effort in the long-term," the French leader said. The European-drafted plans also envision an allied force in Ukraine away from the front lines to reassure Kyiv that peace will hold and to dissuade another Russian invasion, Macron said. He spoke after a nearly two-hour video call Sunday with nations in Europe and further afield -- including Canada, Australia and Japan -- that are involved in the so-called "coalition of the willing." The "several thousand men on the ground in Ukraine in the zone of peace" would signal that "our fates are linked," Macron said. "This is what we must discuss with the Americans: Who is ready to do what?" Macron said. "Otherwise, I think the Ukrainians simply cannot accept commitments that are theoretical." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said earlier at a news conference in Brussels with Zelenskyy that "we welcome President Trump's willingness to contribute to Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine. And the 'coalition of the willing' -- including the European Union -- is ready to do its share." Macron said the substance of security guarantees will be more important than whether they are given an Article 5-type label. "A theoretical article isn't enough, the question is one of substance," he said. "We must start out by saying that the first of the security guarantees for Ukraine is a strong Ukrainian army." Along with Von der Leyen and Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb also said they'll will take part in Monday's talks, as will secretary-general of the NATO military alliance, Mark Rutte. The European leaders' support could help ease concerns in Kyiv and in other European capitals that Ukraine risks being railroaded into a peace deal. Neil Melvin, director of international security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said European leaders are trying to "shape this fast-evolving agenda." After the Alaska summit, the idea of a ceasefire appears all-but-abandoned, with the narrative shifting toward Putin's agenda of ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO or even the EU. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday that a possible ceasefire is "not off the table" but that the best way to end the war would be through a "full peace deal." Putin has implied that he sees Europe as a hindrance to negotiations. He has also resisted meeting Zelenskyy in person, saying that such a meeting can only take place once the groundwork for a peace deal has been laid. Speaking to the press after his meeting with Trump, the Russian leader raised the idea that Kyiv and other European capitals could "create obstacles" to derail potential progress with "behind-the-scenes intrigue." For now, Zelenskyy offers the Europeans the "only way" to get into the discussions about the future of Ukraine and European security, says RUSI's Melvin. However, the sheer number of European leaders potentially in attendance means the group will have to be "mindful" not to give "contradictory" messages, Melvin said. "The risk is they look heavy-handed and are ganging up on Trump," he added. "Trump won't want to be put in a corner." Although details remain hazy on what Article 5-like security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe would entail for Ukraine, it could mirror NATO membership terms, in which an attack on one member of the alliance is seen as an attack on all. Zelenskyy continues to stress the importance of both U.S. and European involvement in any negotiations. "A security guarantee is a strong army. Only Ukraine can provide that. Only Europe can finance this army, and weapons for this army can be provided by our domestic production and European production. But there are certain things that are in short supply and are only available in the United States," he said at the press conference Sunday alongside Von der Leyen. Zelenskyy also pushed back against Trump's assertion -- which aligned with Putin's preference -- that the two sides should negotiate a complete end to the war, rather than first securing a ceasefire. Zelenskyy said a ceasefire would provide breathing room to review Putin's demands. "It's impossible to do this under the pressure of weapons," he said. "Putin does not want to stop the killing, but he must do it."
Japan Times
7 hours ago
- Japan Times
Trump's peace-deal demands leave Ukraine's Zelenskyy with only bad options
Volodymyr Zelenskyy finds himself in an impossible bind: risk Donald Trump's wrath or accept a quick deal to end Russia's war in Ukraine by paying the disastrous price of ceding territory for vague security guarantees that could see Moscow come back stronger in a few years' time. This is the existential dilemma confronting the Ukrainian leader as he travels to Washington for talks with the U.S. president on Monday. Fresh off a summit in Alaska with Vladimir Putin that bypassed a ceasefire, Trump has left Zelenskyy little room to maneuver. The situation is made even more tenuous by the memory of his last visit to the White House in February that erupted into a bitter exchange between Zelenskyy and Trump and briefly led to a halt in military support. This time a coterie of European leaders will accompany him, but they have questionable leverage and haven't always been on the same page. The entourage will seek clarity from Trump on exactly what security guarantees the U.S. is willing to provide as it attempts to orchestrate a meeting with the Ukrainian president and Putin. Among the group accompanying Zelenskyy are people Trump has struck a strong personal rapport with, including NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Aside from avoiding another dispute and maintaining Trump's interest in brokering a deal, Zelenskyy's objectives in the talks include: learning more about Putin's demands, pinning down the timing for a trilateral meeting, and prodding the U.S. toward tougher sanctions against Russia, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Whether he can achieve any of these goals will depend on how much, in the view of European officials, Putin has gotten into Trump's head. After Friday's summit, Trump appeared to align again with the Russian president by dropping demands for an immediate ceasefire as a condition for opening negotiations. Instead, he said he'll urge Zelenskyy to act fast on a peace plan. "Putin has many demands,' Zelenskyy said Sunday at a joint news conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, a stopover to prepare for the Washington visit. "It will take time to go through them all — it's impossible to do this under the pressure of weapons,' he said, adding that a ceasefire would be needed to "work quickly on a final deal.' Raising the stakes for Kyiv, the U.S. president sounded open to Putin's demands that Ukraine give up large areas of land in the east of the country, which the Russian army and its proxies have been trying to seize since 2014. French President Emmanuel Macron attends a video conference with European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy as part of the so-called coalition of the willing on Sunday at the Fort de Bregancon in Bormes-les-Mimosas, France. | Pool / via REUTERS Despite the harsh demands on Ukraine, there are signs that the U.S. is now prepared to back a deal. Following his meeting with Putin, Trump told European leaders that the U.S. could contribute to any security guarantees and that Putin was prepared to accept that. But it remains unclear what kind of security guarantees are being discussed with Putin, and what the Kremlin leader is willing to accept. "We got to an agreement that the U.S. and other nations could effectively offer Article 5-like language to Ukraine,' Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy, said in an interview with CNN, referring to the NATO provision that says if one ally is attacked, it is considered an attack on all members. Trump is also under pressure. He had promised that after taking office in January he would quickly end Russia's full-scale invasion, which is in its fourth year. His efforts were mainly targeted at Kyiv but he ultimately had to acknowledge it was the Kremlin that didn't want to stop the war. Trump on Sunday insisted that he made "BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA' in a post on Truth Social. But instead of yielding to Trump, Russia has intensified attacks. Civilian deaths have mounted, with June and July the deadliest months in more than three years, according to the United Nations. Ahead of the Alaska summit, Trump said refusal to accept a ceasefire would trigger tough new punitive measures on Moscow and countries buying Russian oil. After the meeting, which included a red-carpet reception for Putin and a shared ride in the U.S. leader's armored limo, Trump called off the threats. Rather than punish the aggressor, he declared he's seeking a full peace deal that includes "lands' swap' and urged Zelenskyy to accept it. On Sunday, the Ukrainian leader reaffirmed his stance that he won't give up territory or trade land. "Since the territorial issue is so important, it should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia' at a meeting accompanied by the U.S., Zelenskyy said. "So far Russia gives no sign the trilateral will happen.' Zelenskyy's refusal to accept territorial losses is a position shared by the majority of Ukrainians. But the level of support has softened as counteroffensives sputter and casualties mount. Still, fears are that a further retreat could invite later attacks. Talks in Washington will also be pivotal for Zelenskyy domestically. In late July, he faced his first political crisis since Russia invaded. Thousands took to the streets over his move to undermine anti-corruption institutions. Zelenskyy relented and re-installed independence to agencies that investigate top officials. U.S. President Trump walks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as Putin arrives as Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. | Doug Mills / The New York Times His position in the talks is complicated by divisions between the U.S., Ukraine and other allies. Trump believes Russia can take the whole of Ukraine — although the Kremlin has managed only to seize less than a fifth of Ukraine's territory despite more than 1 million war casualties. Europeans, meanwhile, are wary that favorable conditions could encourage Putin to widen his aggression. "It is important that America agrees to work with Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine,' Zelenskyy said on Sunday. "But there are no details how it'll work and what America's role will be, what Europe's role will be, what the EU can do. And this is our main task.' By joining Zelenskyy at his meeting with Trump at the White House, European leaders hope to show support for Ukraine's leader as he faces growing U.S. pressure to agree to a quick deal. Beyond von der Leyen, Rutte and Stubb, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have confirmed their participation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will join the talks as well, according to an official. Macron said that any agreement needs to maintain the strength of Ukraine's military, as well as include the involvement of European and even U.S. support, including training and logistics. "Several states are ready to do it,' Macron told reporters outside the presidential summer residence in the south of France, adding that allied forces may also be stationed in "non-hot zones' inside Ukraine. "We're going to present that in asking the U.S. up to what point they're ready to join these forces.' While Trump had gone into Friday's summit with Putin seeking a ceasefire, he'd emerged saying he was going to focus on a final settlement. Witkoff said the switch was made because Putin and Trump made "so much progress' that there was no need for a ceasefire period in which the details would be worked out. "The thesis of a ceasefire is that you'd be discussing all of these issues that we already resolved' in Alaska, Witkoff said on CNN, noting that they couldn't finalize any discussion of land swaps because Zelenskyy needed to be directly involved.
