Tokyo metro election key test for PM Ishiba's long-term prospects

The Mainichi

2 days ago

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- With the House of Councillors election looming this summer, a local assembly race in Tokyo on June 22 will likely give a gauge on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future prospects, as it has long served as a bellwether for national politics.
The outcome of the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election could even force Ishiba to step down, as his popularity has waned due to questions about his attempts to boost economic sentiment, including his moves to curb soaring rice prices.
The assembly election in Japan's capital has often influenced Japan's political landscape, triggering the dissolution of the powerful House of Representatives or even prompting a change in prime minister.
An upper house member within the Liberal Democratic Party said Ishiba has "no policies that resonate with voters," adding that he "should be removed as the frontman for the upcoming national election" to prevent the LDP from suffering a crushing blow.
Ishiba has sought to stem the negative impact of sharp price increases and U.S. President Donald Trump's higher tariffs, but his proposals have been criticized even within the ruling camp as election-focused pork-barrel spending, compelling him to back off.
Ishiba's government has also pursued unorthodox policies aimed at lowering rice prices, with farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi taking the lead after his predecessor resigned in May over a gaffe involving gifts from supporters.
But analysts remain skeptical about whether the efforts of the popular and media-friendly Koizumi will succeed in suppressing rice prices over the longer term, saying he is also unlikely to retain the spotlight until the upper house election.
Another LDP lawmaker, who has kept his distance from the leader, said Ishiba has reached a "dead end," as approval ratings for his Cabinet have sunk to their lowest levels since he took office last October -- sometimes dipping below the "danger level" of 30 percent.
Unless he achieves "surprisingly positive results" in tariff negotiations with the United States, his political fortunes "will not improve," the lawmaker said, adding, "Right now, all Ishiba can do is humble himself before Trump."
Over the decades, the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election has taken on a wider significance, occasionally serving as a forum for voters in the nation's largest metropolis to express their opinions on national priorities, including leadership choices and economic direction.
The assembly election has "long been a harbinger of seismic change in Japanese politics," said Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki, chief economist at the Sojitz Research Institute, who has observed domestic political developments through close ties with important lawmakers.
As the most prominent example, the LDP's setback in the Tokyo assembly contest in 2009 undermined then Prime Minister Taro Aso's authority, marking a clear prelude to the following month's historic general election loss that ousted his party from power.
In the 2017 Tokyo election, the party established by Gov. Yuriko Koike secured a decisive victory, while the LDP experienced heavy losses, accelerating political realignment that briefly altered the composition of the opposition bloc in the national parliament.
The most recent case was the 2021 assembly election in which the ruling coalition failed to win a majority, eroding then Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's standing and ultimately dashing his hopes to seek reelection in the LDP's presidential race.
All these Tokyo metropolitan elections were held when support for the central government had declined against a backdrop of scandals and poor policy handling, allowing new forces to rise, pundits said, adding that Ishiba seems set to face the same battle.
Indeed, Shinji Ishimaru, who placed second in the 2024 Tokyo gubernatorial race using social media as a key cog in his campaigning machine, has set up a new regional political party ahead of the June assembly election. He is a former mayor of a city in Hiroshima Prefecture.
Ryohei Yoshida, a senior economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research, said that if public backing for the Cabinet slides below that of the party, it would indicate the leader and his team have become a burden. Support for the LDP was around 30 percent in a Kyodo News survey in late May.
"For lawmakers running in elections, the growing risk of losing their seats is certain to fuel momentum to replace the current prime minister as the face of the party," Yoshida warned.