Snapback To Reality: On Iran's 45-Year Slog To Nowhere

NDTV

4 days ago

They have been saying it since 1979 - 'Death to America'. And for just as long (since 1975), the West has been sounding the alarm: Iran is weeks away from building a nuclear bomb. Forty-five years later, the rhetoric remains unchanged. America remains the most powerful country in the world, and Iran is still not a nuclear weapons state. But it is definitely a highly sensitive issue when it comes to diplomacy, foreign investment and joining the global economy.
Now, with a new nuclear deadline looming, the shouting matches are back. Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined hands with the foreign ministers of the UK, France and Germany to deliver a crisp ultimatum to Tehran: cut a nuclear disarmament deal by the end of August or face the music of UN sanctions. This is not just bureaucratic posturing. If there's no agreement by then, the European trio plan to trigger the 'snapback' mechanism, designed under the original 2015 Iran deal, which would reinstate all UN sanctions removed under that agreement.
To be clear, Iran was once on a very different path. Back in 2015, during US President Barack Obama's tenure and with the full backing of European powers, the Islamic Republic signed a landmark nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Tehran agreed to dial down its nuclear ambitions in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency were active and frequent. Western businesses had begun tiptoeing back into Iran. There was hope in the air, even if fleeting.
Trump's Unilateral Step
Then came Donald Trump's wrecking ball diplomacy. In 2018, he unilaterally tore up the deal, declared 'maximum pressure', and reimposed sanctions. Iran retaliated predictably, by enriching uranium to dangerous levels and kicking out nuclear inspectors. Now, in a strange twist of irony, Trump, since he has been back in the White House, suddenly wants a new deal with Tehran - and fast. Rubio and the Europeans have given Iran until the end of August to play ball - or face full diplomatic isolation once again. They want the snapback in place before October, when Russia takes over the presidency of the UN Security Council.
It might sound unfair to Iran, especially after it was attacked unilaterally by Israel, which humiliated the clerical regime at will. The 12-day war displayed cruelly Iran's shortcomings as a regional power. It was pulverised by the Israeli air force.
The Hate For America
Iran needs to recast its foreign policy to save itself from future humiliations and to emerge as a credible regional power. After all, how long can Iran keep playing the same hand - shouting slogans from 1979 while expecting a 21st-century economy?
The Islamic Republic has spent over four decades defining itself by what it hates: America, Israel, the West, secularism, dissent and even Persian identity when it clashes with Islamic orthodoxy. It has poured billions into regional militias (Iran's notorious proxies) from Lebanon to Yemen, obsessed over Israel's destruction and sacrificed its own youth to preserve this ideological arc. And what has it gained? Nothing. In Iran's clerical regime, nothingness connects with only nothingness. It's sterile, a wasteland. An ancient civilisation at the cusp of denouement.
When you think of today's Iran, what comes to mind? A shrinking economy, inflation hovering around 50%, unchecked youth unemployment, capital flight, international sanctions and a currency that is now worth less than Monopoly money. Even the clerics' strongest allies, Russia and China, prefer quiet deals, not war rhetoric.
Meanwhile, Israel, the object of so much Iranian fury, is not only still standing, it's thriving - and striking deep into Iranian territory at will. From assassinating nuclear scientists to air strikes on Syrian and Lebanese proxies, Israel has shown that it doesn't need to talk loudly when it can act lethally. Iran's stubborn refusal to change course has brought it neither justice for Palestinians nor prosperity for Iranians.
Time Is Running Out
If Iran is waiting for the world to blink first, it will be a very long wait. The US and its allies know time is running out. The JCPOA's snapback clause expires in October. It takes 30 days to activate, which means the deadline is now set. According to some sections of credible US media, the recent call between Rubio and the European foreign ministers was aimed at coordinating a unified position: pressure Tehran, and if they don't comply, pull the trigger.
What the Europeans are dangling in front of Iran is not just a warning, but an escape route: resume IAEA monitoring, remove 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, and stop playing the martyr. In return, sanctions relief, trade, and perhaps even Western investment could follow.
As Indians, we, with a long history of deep friendship with Iran, feel bad for the country and its civilisation. But I will make a blasphemous argument in the eyes of Iran's ruling elites. I firmly believe it is time for Tehran to abandon its entrenched animosity towards the United States and Israel. The Islamic Republic must recognise that it has more to gain from a pragmatic recalibration of its foreign policy than from clinging to revolutionary dogmas that have outlived their strategic utility.
Yes, the ruling clerics and their staunch supporters may think it's a maddening idea. After all, the Islamic revolution of Iran of 1979 was born out of stiff opposition to the US and other Western powers' perceived opposition to the revolution. But do not forget that the idea that there are no permanent enemies in international politics is not just a diplomatic cliché; it is a lesson Iran must now internalise. Iran should go beyond today and find events in history to learn and adapt to new realities.
The Ghost Of Nixon
Iran today faces a crossroads similar to that of China in the early 1970s. Mao's China, ideologically hostile to the West, recognised the strategic imperative of engaging with the United States. Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972, while shocking to many, laid the groundwork for China's rise as a global power. Iran must now think about the future of its people.
Or the Mullah rulers must consider Vietnam - a country that never invited war, yet was dragged into a brutal conflict that left its land and people shattered. The United States dropped more bombs on Vietnam than it did during all of World War Two. Napalm turned villages into fireballs, and entire generations were maimed or killed. Forests, once lush and teeming with life, were doused in Agent Orange, a deadly herbicide that poisoned not just the trees but the bloodlines of those who lived beneath them. Children were born with deformities. Rivers ran black. And yet, from that scorched earth, Vietnam rose - not with vengeance, but with quiet resolve.
The War Museum In Vietnam
I still remember my first and only visit to Vietnam in 2019 - and more specifically, the emotional punch delivered by a quiet corner of the War Remnants Museum in Ho Chi Minh City. Amid the graphic, haunting visuals of American war crimes, pictures of napalm-burned bodies and shredded villages, what moved me most was the serene presence of two life-sized white doves, their wings outstretched in silent flight. Powerful symbols of peace indeed - not revenge, not bitterness, not rage. Just peace.
Just imagine. The Vietnamese people - pulverised, humiliated and defoliated by American firepower in a war that remains one of the most brutal in modern history - chose to place doves, not bombs, at the heart of their war museum. It was as if they were saying: we remember, but we also forgive. The very idea that a country so wronged could turn its gaze towards reconciliation is humbling. Today, Vietnam and the United States are not enemies but partners, building trade, strategic ties and mutual trust, a friendship that defies decades of violence and venom.
Iran can do the same.
A Change Of Script
The ruling elite doesn't need to worry. Trump has not asked Tehran to change its flag or disband the Revolutionary Guard. The West is not demanding regime change either. They have learned from the devastating consequences of forcing it in Libya and Iraq. All Iran needs to do is retire its old, meaningless slogans that belong in a Cold War museum. It can stop pretending Israel doesn't exist; clearly, it's not going anywhere. In fact, Israel now enjoys near-open diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies - right in Iran's own backyard. The Abraham Accords were a strategic earthquake and Tehran, too busy shouting at the sky, barely noticed.
The region is changing. And if Iran wants to remain relevant, it must evolve. Hostility to Israel and the West has yielded nothing but misery for ordinary Iranians. The nuclear issue is just one flashpoint, but beneath it lies a deeper question: can Iran reconcile its revolutionary ideology with the realities of global power and economics?
The answer doesn't lie in capitulation. It lies in pragmatism.
Pressure Building
The Trump administration is not naïve. Senior officials say they are using the snapback threat as leverage to pressure Tehran into direct talks, without intermediaries. Trump, we are told, is personally frustrated that Iran hasn't returned to the negotiating table. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly told the Iranians that future discussions must be direct, not filtered through European or Qatari go-betweens. Even Israel has weighed in - Netanyahu has urged the US not to delay the snapback, and has warned that time is running out.
The pressure is coordinated, and this time it's real.
But what if Iran could flip the script? What if it walked into the room with a bold proposal: international inspections, capped enrichment, regional de-escalation, and in return - a Marshall Plan for Iran. It doesn't have to mean regime change. It means regime reinvention.
Iran is a country of nearly 90 million people, many of them young, educated and tired of isolation. Its location is geopolitically strategic, its energy reserves vast. With the right policies, it could become a regional trade hub linking Central Asia, the Gulf and the Mediterranean. But not while it waves the flag of ideological purity and international pariahdom.
I am not saying that the choice before Iran today is between submission and sovereignty. But surely, it is between stubbornness and survival, between reconciliation and potential prosperity.
Vietnam chose wisely. It invited its old enemy to build factories, sign defence pacts and invest in peace. Tehran must decide: does it want to be the next Vietnam - or the next North Korea?
Time is ticking. The snapback fuse is lit. But Iran still holds the wire.