This is the Most Dangerous Week for Investors in 20 Years

Yahoo

2 days ago

This might be the most critical week for investors in years. In fact, in over two decades of investing, and more than a decade as a professional analyst, I've never seen a single week with this many potentially market-moving headlines. Between earnings surprises, critical inflation and jobs data, a Federal Reserve decision, and a looming tariff cliff, investors are facing a powder keg of risk. The S&P 500 might be flirting with record highs, but August 1st could bring a shift. I'll walk you through each of the market-moving headlines to watch in this week's stock market update.
Why August 1 Matters More than You Think
Trump's proposed tariffs would affect major trading partners with rates up to 35% if deals aren't finalized by the Friday deadline. China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU are all in last-minute negotiations. Some deals are in progress. China and Japan have agreed in principle to frameworks that would keep rates lower. But others remain unsettled. More impactful are the sector-specific tariffs already rolling out. Steel, copper, and car parts are under new restrictions. Trump has also threatened additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber—some as high as 200%.
These aren't bargaining chips anymore. They're weapons in a broader plan to repatriate manufacturing and redraw the global supply chain. And for some U.S.-based companies, this could be a windfall. Some stocks stand to benefit massively from this shifting landscape. Pharmaceuticals: The administration is floating a tariff of up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals to push drugmakers back to U.S. soil. While the market hasn't reacted strongly yet - due to assumptions that implementation will be delayed - the announcement alone could rattle drugmakers like Teva which leads in overseas generics manufacturing. On the flip side, companies like Eli Lilly (LLY) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), both with significant U.S. production, could see a tailwind.
Semiconductors: A proposed 25% tariff on imported chips and related equipment would impact a wide swath of industries, from autos to smartphones. But for U.S. fabricators like Intel (INTC) and Micron Technology (MU), this could be a breakout moment. Despite Intel's recent disappointing earnings, its U.S. fabs in Arizona, New Mexico, and Ohio could become strategic assets. Copper & Steel: Tariffs on imported copper jump to 50% on August 1 and join the already high tariff on steel. That boosts domestic suppliers like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), with shares already up 16% this year. Steel, too, is seeing a resurgence, with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) benefitting from its 100% U.S. flat-rolled production. Lumber: A brewing trade spat with Canada makes increased lumber tariffs all but certain. The administration is considering a 25% rate on Canadian softwood. Weyerhaeuser (WY), with over 10 million acres of U.S. timberland, could see higher prices and stronger margins.
Earnings to Watch This Week
As if tariffs weren't enough, a packed earnings calendar has already sent individual stocks soaring or crashing over the last two weeks. Investors are rewarding companies that can boost guidance but severely punishing anyone failing to beat expectations. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) reports Tuesday with shares are up nearly 190% in a year but stuck around $21 each. With a price-to-book ratio of 3.5x, it's looking expensive for a bank stock. While growth is strong and the company's digital banking model remains compelling, investors should be cautious at these levels. ARM Holdings (ARM) reports Wednesday and has already surged 30% this year. Riding the AI wave, ARM benefits from chip design dominance, but at 42x sales, it's priced for perfection. Any dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term believers. Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) also report Wednesday. Microsoft is expected to grow 14% annually but trades at 14x price to sales. Without a major AI breakthrough or less contention with OpenAI, it may struggle to justify the premium. Meta, meanwhile, trades at a more reasonable 11x sales and is aggressively expanding AI-driven advertising tools. I'd favor Meta at these levels and consider adding on dips. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has defied the doubters, including me. Up 180% this year, the company is charging into tokenized assets and stock trading in Europe. With projected 27% revenue growth and expanding product lines, it's hard to ignore, though margins and regulation remain concerns. Coinbase Global (COIN) reports Thursday and despite slow 12% projected revenue growth, its U.S.-regulated exchange status and Circle stablecoin exposure give it a unique edge. At 15x sales, it's not cheap, but the long-term thesis is gaining momentum as crypto adoption grows. I love talking stocks and that face-to-face community we're building on the YouTube channel. Join the Bow Tie Nation and check out all the 2025 stock picks on Let's Talk Money!
The Wildcards: Fed Policy, Jobs & Inflation
Beyond earnings and tariffs, this week includes three economic landmines:
Federal Reserve Decision (Wednesday): The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with CME FedWatch showing 97% odds of no rate cut. Rising inflation (up to 2.7% in June CPI) and a resilient job market could derail hopes for any cuts this year. Trump has voiced his frustration with Fed Chair Powell and may erupt if rates remain unchanged.
PCE Inflation Report (Thursday): The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show a 2.7% annual rate. Add rising tariffs to the mix and even September rate cuts could be off the table.
Jobs Report (Friday): Forecasts call for just 102,000 new jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. So far, employment has been the bright spot in the economy. But a surprise miss here could rattle investor confidence.
What Investors Can Do Now
Earnings have been strong. The economy is holding up - for now. But with so many potential shocks on the calendar, this is the time to hedge.
Buy puts on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY): A simple way to protect your portfolio from a broad market downturn while still letting your individual stocks run. With volatility nearing lows for the year, option premiums on the index fund are relatively cheap.
Sell call options against individual stocks: This generates income and reduces risk while allowing for some upside though it will limit gains to the option's strike price.
Look for domestic winners: Companies with U.S.-based production and supply chains could thrive as tariffs hit competitors.
We're entering a new economic era—one defined by onshoring, inflation, and volatility. Investors who prepare now won't just survive it. They'll profit from it. Disclosure: This is the Most Dangerous Week for Investors in 20 Years is written by Joseph Hogue, CFA who is a former equity analyst and economist. Born and raised in Iowa, after serving in the Marine Corps, Joseph worked in corporate finance and real estate before starting a career in investment analysis. He has appeared on Bloomberg and CNBC and led a team of equity analysts for a venture capital research firm. He holds a master's degree in business and the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Positions in stocks mentioned: SOFI, META, ARM