NASA and IBM create ‘Surya': Advanced AI for predicting solar storms and strengthening space defence

Time of India

19 hours ago

NASA has introduced 'Surya,' a groundbreaking artificial intelligence model aimed at revolutionising how we understand and forecast space weather. Developed in collaboration with IBM and trained on over nine years of continuous data from NASA's
Solar Dynamics Observatory
(SDO), Surya analyses massive streams of solar activity to detect early signs of solar flares and eruptions. These events, often unpredictable, can disrupt satellites, communication systems, aviation, GPS navigation, and even cause widespread power grid failures on Earth. Early results show Surya can generate visual forecasts up to two hours in advance with greater accuracy than traditional methods. By making the model open-source, NASA hopes to enable global researchers to build on its capabilities, enhancing space weather defense worldwide.
How AI helps scientists understand solar eruptions and protect Earth's technology
When the Sun erupts, it releases bursts of charged particles and magnetic energy known as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These events create 'space weather' that can travel across the solar system and affect Earth.
Solar weather predictions: A shield for satellites, power, astronauts, and trave:
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Satellite disruption: Solar storms can damage or disable satellites used for communication, navigation, and weather forecasting.
Power grid failures: Strong geomagnetic storms can overload power infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts.
Astronaut safety: Solar radiation poses a serious health risk to astronauts on the ISS and future missions to the Moon and Mars.
Air travel and GPS: Aviation routes and GPS-based services can be interrupted, affecting global connectivity.
Understanding and forecasting solar eruptions is therefore essential not just for scientists but for protecting modern life.
Surya: NASA's AI model for the Sun
The Surya Heliophysics Foundational Model is NASA's response to these growing challenges. Built with the help of IBM and research partners, Surya is an AI system trained specifically on solar physics.
Unlike conventional forecasting methods that rely on limited models, Surya leverages machine learning to process massive datasets and detect subtle patterns in solar activity. This allows it to predict solar eruptions faster and more accurately than traditional approaches.
Source: NASA
Training AI on solar dynamics observatory data for better space weather forecasts
Surya's power lies in its training data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a spacecraft launched in 2010 to study the Sun.
High-resolution imagery: SDO captures images of the Sun every 12 seconds across multiple wavelengths, providing unmatched detail.
Magnetic field mapping: The observatory records constant measurements of the Sun's magnetic activity—key triggers of solar storms.
15-year archive: With an unbroken record spanning an entire solar cycle, the dataset gives Surya a rare depth of consistency.
This continuous monitoring enables Surya to recognize the earliest signs of instability on the Sun's surface, helping it forecast eruptions before they occur.
AI in solar forecasting: Faster and 16% more accurate results
Initial tests show Surya outperforming traditional methods in predicting solar activity.
Forecast lead time: Surya can produce visual forecasts up to two hours in advance.
Accuracy boost: It improves predictive performance by about 16% compared to current models.
Visual modeling: Surya generates dynamic visualizations that help scientists interpret predictions more effectively.
Even short-term improvements matter. An extra hour of warning could give satellite operators time to protect spacecraft or allow power grid managers to adjust loads and prevent cascading failures.
NASA makes AI model 'Surya' open-source for global space weather research
Source: NASA
NASA has chosen to make Surya publicly accessible to accelerate space weather research worldwide.
Available on Hugging Face: Researchers can access the AI model directly for experimentation and forecasting.
Code on GitHub: Developers and educators can adapt and expand its capabilities.
This open-science approach ensures Surya's benefits are shared globally, encouraging innovation across scientific and industrial fields.
Surya's development reflects collaboration between government, academia, and industry.
National AI Research Resource (NAIRR): Provided by the National Science Foundation to supply the necessary computing infrastructure.
NVIDIA and IBM: Industry partners offering hardware and expertise to optimize the model's performance.
By combining NASA's deep space data with cutting-edge AI technology, Surya represents a fusion of science and computation that can be replicated in other domains of Earth and space science.
The impact of space weather and AI forecasting on daily life
Predicting solar activity isn't just about protecting satellites—it touches nearly every aspect of life on Earth.
Defense and security: Military communications and surveillance systems depend on satellite functionality.
Global economy: Stock markets, airlines, and internet services all rely on stable communication networks.
Future space missions: As NASA prepares for lunar bases and eventual Mars missions, accurate radiation forecasts will be essential for astronaut survival.
Just as meteorology transformed life on Earth by predicting storms and climate patterns, heliophysics is now moving toward real-time forecasting of the Sun's moods.
NASA's vision for the future
NASA officials believe Surya marks the beginning of a new era in heliophysics.
Kevin Murphy, NASA's Chief Science Data Officer, highlighted the shift:
'We are advancing data-driven science by embedding NASA's deep scientific expertise into cutting-edge AI models. This empowers broader understanding of how solar activity impacts critical systems on Earth.'
Joseph Westlake, Director of NASA's Heliophysics Division, compared it to traditional weather forecasting:
'Just as meteorology helps us predict Earth's weather,
space weather forecasting
helps us protect astronauts, spacecraft, power grids, and GPS systems. Surya is a vital step forward.'
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