How mass migration will transform your town
Across England, 173 council areas – around 58 per cent of the total – are on course to suffer a fall in their populations over the next 25 years without international or cross-border migration.
The data, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), will raise concerns about the growing dependence of business and communities on migration as well as raising questions over integration.
The figures suggest that immigration will fuel the majority of change across local areas and the country as a whole with 8.3 million more migrants arriving between 2022 and 2047.
Without international migration, the population of England would fall from 57.1 million to 54.6 million, according to the projections. This figure also includes zero movement between England and Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
It comes just weeks after a report by Prof Matt Goodwin, based on ONS figures, which projected that white British people would become a minority in the UK population within the next 40 years. This was fuelled by immigration as well as lower fertility rates among the white population.
Prof Goodwin forecasts that by the year 2100, six in 10 people in the UK will not have been born in the UK or born to two UK-born parents.
'This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture, and avoid the very real risk of us becoming what Sir Keir Starmer referred to in May as 'an island of strangers',' said Prof Goodwin, of Buckingham University.
Across 173 local areas, around one in three of the total, a complete ban on migration would lead to population decline, with Birmingham, Newham and Manchester among those losing over 100,000 residents in this scenario.
Urban areas, such as Newham, Birmingham, Brent, Westminster and Manchester are all expected to see UK-based residents move away and be replaced with a steady flow of migrants.
Meanwhile, areas with fewer residents will see massive amounts of people migrate towards them, including Cornwall, Somerset and Shropshire.
The population estimates, the first at a local level since 2020, also highlight England's continued transition into an elderly-heavy, 'grey' population. By 2047, 78 council areas are projected to have at least one in four residents at retirement age, compared with just eight in 2022.
Each area is affected differently by projected trends in birth rates and migration. Use our tool to see how it impacts you.
The overall population across England is expected to increase by 12.7 per cent between 2022 and 2047. This would mark a slowdown from the preceding 25 years, when the population increased by 18.5 per cent.
Just four local authorities will suffer a population decline using the best estimates of migration: Ipswich, North East Lincolnshire and Gosport, in Hampshire.
Previous projections, released in 2018, suggested that 16 areas would see population decline, but this has likely been updated due to increasing international migration.
In other areas, there are expected to be population explosions over the next quarter century, with five where populations are due to increase by more than 30 per cent, including South Derbyshire (38 per cent), Stratford-on-Avon (36 per cent) and Tower Hamlets (33 per cent).
Based on current household sizes, this would require an additional 3.1 million houses by 2047, Telegraph analysis shows.
Additionally, the country would need 18,022 more police officers and 4,730 more GPs to keep per capita levels at current rates.
The make-up of your area
Across England, the country will continue to grey, with more Baby Boomers entering retirement age, while birth rates among Millennials and Gen Z are expected to continue their sharp downward trend.
By 2047, 19.6 per cent of adults will be 68 years or older, the expected pension age at that point, up from 15.6 per cent now.
At least one in four residents will be retirement-age or older across swathes of the country, including Dorset, the New Forest, North Norfolk and Rother, where this will be as high as 30 per cent.
Declining birth rates will also result in just 18 areas supporting a child-heavy population, defined as a local authority where more than one in five is under 18. Currently this is true in 165 (56 per cent) of all local authorities.
In North Norfolk, Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea, less than 16 per cent of the population will be children.
What will drive population change?
Birth rates have fallen drastically in recent decades with each woman giving birth to an average of just 1.44 children in 2023. For the population to continue growing without migration, this figure must be above 2.1. This rate has not been hit since 1972.
Across England, the number of deaths is expected to outstrip births by 2031. By 2047, 60,000 more people are expected to die than be born.
Over the next 25 years, 187 of all local areas, roughly 62 per cent of the total, are projected to see more births than deaths.
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