Rain soaks South Florida on Monday, more expected Tuesday
However, as storms failed to "pin" along the coastline—a meteorological process that can rapidly produce several inches of rain in a short period—the worst-case scenarios did not develop.
"Since we didn't get widespread flooding along with a drying trend in the models, an Alert Day may not be necessary tomorrow," the NEXT Weather team said in an update.
Forecast totals hold
Rainfall amounts largely matched Monday's forecast of 1 to 3 inches across the region, though earlier projections warned of isolated areas potentially receiving up to 7 inches.
A flood watch was in effect Monday afternoon and evening, but no major flooding materialized.
"The potential of significant flooding was there today but storms did not 'pin' along the coastline, a process that can easily wring out several inches in a short amount of time," the update noted.
Currently, there are no active flood alerts in South Florida.
System moves west, watching the Gulf
As the trough of low pressure that brought Monday's rains moves west across the peninsula and into the Gulf, the risk of flooding in South Florida diminishes.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system for possible tropical development later this week, though chances remain low.
The NEXT Weather team will continue monitoring the system's movement and any possible impacts to the region in the coming days.
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CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
A tropical system could form in the Gulf. It could also be the next big flood
There's growing concern for another significant rain and flooding event this week, this time along the Gulf Coast, from what could become the Atlantic basin's next tropical system. The potential storm's flood threat is just the latest in what has been a summer full of deadly and devastating floods. Right now, the would-be storm is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the East Coast of Florida. It will drift west across Florida Tuesday, raising the flood threat there, and into the Gulf by midweek where it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center. If it can muster a more defined center of circulation and strengthen further it would become Dexter, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season — a mark typically reached around mid-August. If it does form, it would do so close to the US — a reminder that storms are more likely to form in the warm, shallow water closer to land in July. Warm water acts like fuel for storms to form and strengthen and ocean surface temperatures are well above average where the system is expected to track. A strong storm isn't favored right now because the system will likely not have much time to mature over water and will also have to overcome hostile upper-level winds that can rip apart storms. But a few reputable forecast models are hinting at a more organized system, potentially a tropical storm, in the Gulf by late week. The outcome could hinge on its track. If it dips further south and spends more time over the Gulf it could become stronger if it can withstand the upper-level winds on its journey. No matter its designation, this system will bring tropical downpours to Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast over the next several days. There's a Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain in parts of the Florida Peninsula including Tampa and Orlando Tuesday as the system taps into rich tropical moisture and enhances rainfall rates and the flood potential. The most intense storms are likely in the afternoon and evening as the system drifts across the state. Rainfall totals could range between 3 to 5 inches. But the most serious flood threat will come later this week and into the weekend as the system drifts west into parts of the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Rain chances increase midweek across the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Heavy rain could be long-lasting once it begins, possibly as soon as Wednesday night. Flash flooding is the main concern, especially if rain bands repeatedly track over the same areas which could happen if the system moves slowly and lingers. A Level 2 of 4 threat for flooding rain is in place Thursday for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. By Friday, the threat increases to a Level 3 of 4 for parts of Louisiana including Baton Rouge over fears that heavy rain could linger. Several inches of rain are possible in the worst-case scenarios. It's clear that heavy rain and flooding will threaten much of the north-central Gulf Coast, but exactly where and how much remain in question. It will all depend on how strong the system becomes, where it tracks and how fast it moves – questions that will become sorted in the next couple of days.
CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
A tropical system could form in the Gulf. It could also be the next big flood
There's growing concern for another significant rain and flooding event this week, this time along the Gulf Coast, from what could become the Atlantic basin's next tropical system. The potential storm's flood threat is just the latest in what has been a summer full of deadly and devastating floods. Right now, the would-be storm is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms off the East Coast of Florida. It will drift west across Florida Tuesday, raising the flood threat there, and into the Gulf by midweek where it has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center. If it can muster a more defined center of circulation and strengthen further it would become Dexter, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season — a mark typically reached around mid-August. If it does form, it would do so close to the US — a reminder that storms are more likely to form in the warm, shallow water closer to land in July. Warm water acts like fuel for storms to form and strengthen and ocean surface temperatures are well above average where the system is expected to track. A strong storm isn't favored right now because the system will likely not have much time to mature over water and will also have to overcome hostile upper-level winds that can rip apart storms. But a few reputable forecast models are hinting at a more organized system, potentially a tropical storm, in the Gulf by late week. The outcome could hinge on its track. If it dips further south and spends more time over the Gulf it could become stronger if it can withstand the upper-level winds on its journey. No matter its designation, this system will bring tropical downpours to Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast over the next several days. There's a Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain in parts of the Florida Peninsula including Tampa and Orlando Tuesday as the system taps into rich tropical moisture and enhances rainfall rates and the flood potential. The most intense storms are likely in the afternoon and evening as the system drifts across the state. Rainfall totals could range between 3 to 5 inches. But the most serious flood threat will come later this week and into the weekend as the system drifts west into parts of the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Rain chances increase midweek across the north-central Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Heavy rain could be long-lasting once it begins, possibly as soon as Wednesday night. Flash flooding is the main concern, especially if rain bands repeatedly track over the same areas which could happen if the system moves slowly and lingers. A Level 2 of 4 threat for flooding rain is in place Thursday for southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans and parts of coastal Alabama and Mississippi. By Friday, the threat increases to a Level 3 of 4 for parts of Louisiana including Baton Rouge over fears that heavy rain could linger. Several inches of rain are possible in the worst-case scenarios. It's clear that heavy rain and flooding will threaten much of the north-central Gulf Coast, but exactly where and how much remain in question. It will all depend on how strong the system becomes, where it tracks and how fast it moves – questions that will become sorted in the next couple of days.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
What can Florida expect as Invest 93L crosses state, even if it doesn't become tropical storm?
Heavy rainfall with a risk for flash floods are predicted across portions of Florida as Invest 93L moves across the state July 15-16, according to the National Weather Service. As is moves into the Gulf, the National Hurricane Center said it has the potential of strengthening into a tropical depression. ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location ➤ Track all active storms Most spaghetti models on July 15 show the system moving north after it enters the Gulf, with AccuWeather forecasters predicting a possible landfall July 17 Louisiana. The next named storm of the season will be Dexter. Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the system of low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula July 15 and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. National Weather Service offices around Florida warned on X it was still too early to determine specifics about the track, strength or impacts from Invest 93L and advised residents to monitor forecasts for the latest updates. "Regardless of any further development, associated thunderstorm activity and plentiful tropical moisture will bring the threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding to Florida, with a slight risk in place for the central Peninsula Tuesday," the National Weather Service said. "Increasing thunderstorm chances will shift westward with the low along the central Gulf Coast Wednesday (July 16) with additional isolated instances of flash flooding possible." Pensacola, western Panhandle: Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid to late week with a high risk of rip currents expected by Thursday. Local impacts will depend on whether this system stays near the coast or out over the Gulf. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Rain chances ramp up Wednesday and Thursday regardless of development Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Low pressure off of the Florida East Coast will move onshore later this morning/early afternoon and track west across the peninsula. Precipitation along the coast this morning will spread inland with heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday expected, with locally higher amounts of 4-plus inches in spots that receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region again today as the tropical disturbance begins to cross the Florida Peninsula. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible. An isolated severe storm is possible, along with strong wind gusts. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 109. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 7 a.m. High near 91. Heat index values as high as 105. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90% Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Follow National Weather Service Mobile on X, formerly known as Twitter A heat advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. until 8 p.m. July 15. Heat index values around 108 are expected across portions the the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle. Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 96. Heat index values as high as 109. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. High near 88. East wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 90. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90% Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 91. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Follow the National Weather Service Tallahassee on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 101. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: A slight chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Sunny, with a high near 92. South wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Follow the National Weather Service Jacksonville on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before noon, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 4 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4 p.m. High near 85. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 88. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 88. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 87. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 89. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11 a.m. High near 89. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday: A slight chance of thunderstorms, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 88. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. High near 90. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. High near 83. South wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind around 14 mph. Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5 p.m. High near 85. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Light southwest wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m. High near 88. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11 a.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind 8 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Follow the National Weather Service Miami on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms. High near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. High near 88. South wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. East southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. High near 87. Heat index values as high as 98. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 2 p.m., then showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. High near 87. Breezy, with a south wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 89. South wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Follow the National Weather Service Tampa Bay on X, formerly known as Twitter Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 87. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible Wednesday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. High near 91. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Friday: A slight chance of thunderstorms, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Follow the National Weather Service Melbourne on X, formerly known as Twitter We will continue to update our weather coverage as conditions warrant. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Florida weather forecast, radar. Invest 93L impacts rain, flooding
