What To Expect From Newmont's Q2?
Newmont (NYSE:NEM) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, July 24, 2025. The consensus estimate for earnings is approximately $1.01 per share, while revenues are projected to increase by nearly 9% compared to the same quarter last year, thanks to higher average gold prices. However, potential benefits from pricing may be somewhat countered by rising costs and slightly limited production due to ongoing operational adjustments following the Newcrest acquisition.
The company's current market capitalization stands at $66 Bil. Over the past twelve months, its revenue reached $20 Bil, and it remained operationally profitable with $7.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.1 Bil. Much will hinge on how results compare to consensus and expectations; therefore, understanding historical trends could give event-driven traders an advantage.
There are two methods to achieve this: comprehend the historical probabilities and position oneself ahead of the earnings announcement, or examine the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release and adjust your strategy accordingly post-announcement. Consequently, if you're looking for upside with less volatility than single stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and recorded returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
View earnings reaction history of all stocks
Newmont's Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Returns
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
NEM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though less effective if correlation is weak) is to analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. The following correlation data is based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
NEM Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), yielding strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you desire upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock like Newmont, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has exceeded the S&P and achieved returns of over 91% since its inception.
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