How redoing Karnataka ‘caste census' weakens CM Siddaramaiah without strengthening Shivakumar

The Print

11-06-2025

The 2015 Karnataka survey report was placed before the state cabinet this April but its findings have not yet been made public.
The resurvey move was announced by Congress general secretary K.C. Venugopal Tuesday after the party's top brass, including AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, met with Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and his deputy D.K. Shivakumar in Delhi.
Bengaluru: The Congress high command Tuesday said that though the report of the 2015 Karnataka 'caste census' had in principle been accepted, it asked the Siddaramaiah-led government to carry out a re-enumeration exercise to allay apprehensions of various communities and groups in the state.
According to political analysts and observers, the Congress's resurvey move reflects the leadership's careful efforts to reconcile differing—and confrontational—viewpoints within Karnataka, effectively diverting attention from the Chinnaswamy Stadium stampede and preventing the Centre from taking credit for initiating the 'caste census' exercise at the national level.
'They (Congress) cannot allow the BJP or NDA (at the Centre) to claim credit for the caste survey, including with regards to the upcoming Bihar elections. That is why the (party's) national leadership spoke about the caste census. The main thrust for the (national) caste census has come from (Bihar leaders) Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar,' Narendar Pani, a Bengaluru-based analyst and faculty at National Institute of Advanced Studies, told ThePrint.
'This (resurvey decision) gives the impression that the Congress is actually leading and the others are following.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier said the Congress was turning the Constitution into a 'weapon' and 'medium of appeasement' for political gain. However, the PM's announcement of a national census that would include caste count in April has been interpreted by the Congress as a sign that the opposition successfully influenced the ruling party's position on this issue.
The messaging for a national audience apart, the decision also has bearing in Karnataka and will possibly defuse some tensions between the CM and his deputy, analysts said.
Statements by Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah on the subject indicate that both leaders are claiming some level of validation for their respective positions on the state survey, although the CM appears to have conceded some ground. While Shivakumar has previously sided with calls for scrapping the 2015 survey, the CM officially accepted the survey report.
At a press meet following Tuesday's meeting, Siddaramaiah also announced the resurvey and acknowledged that the earlier survey's findings were more than 10 years old, in the process seemingly giving up any leverage he had to thwart attempts by Shivakumar, from the dominant Vokkaliga community, to replace him. The CM hails from the backward Kuruba community.
Following this, Shivakumar stated on X: 'Caste census to be redone to dispel doubts over sanctity of data.'
Also Read: Who are Panchamasali Lingayats & why they're so important in Karnataka politics
'Door-to-door survey again'
In 2015, during Siddaramaiah's first stint as CM, he had commissioned the 'socio-economic and educational survey' in Karnataka, which had 55 questions and cost over Rs 180 crore to complete.
It is a widely held belief that Siddaramaiah commissioned the 'caste census' in 2015 to challenge the perceived dominance of communities like Vokkaligas and Lingayats.
Despite lacking definitive empirical evidence, these two groups have often been considered the largest in the state and hold significant influence among political parties, the government and broader society.
According to analysts, the two groups have been vehemently seeking the scrapping of the 2015 survey report as its findings could potentially weaken their established hold over both politics and society.
The Siddaramaiah government will iron out the details on how it will carry out the re-enumeration in a cabinet meeting Thursday, although there are many unanswered questions over how it would conduct a re-survey that would not completely alter the findings of the existing caste census in the state. The re-survey and report are set to be completed within 60-90 days.
'Data will be collected once again through door-to-door and online surveys. The entire process would be done in a very transparent manner,' Shivakumar said.
This would also give the Vokkaligas, Lingayats and other aggrieved communities time to mobilise people and make a case for consolidation to retain their dominance, rather than further fragmentation that brings down their population numbers and lobbying powers.
The deputy CM is a Vokkaliga and has sided with the community against Siddaramaiah and the government's stand. Ministers from the Lingayat community, like M.B. Patil, Lakshmi Hebbalkar, S.S. Mallikarjun and Eshwar Khandre, too, have opposed the government's decision to release the findings of the 2015 report.
On the other hand, traditionally oppressed communities, who form the backbone of Siddaramaiah's core political constituency, have urged the CM to release the caste survey findings.
Siddaramaiah's support base had also begun to target Shivakumar whenever the latter broached upon the unwritten agreement that he would replace the former halfway through the term of the Congress government in Karnataka.
The Siddaramaiah camp had further complicated matters for the party by promoting a narrative that replacing a CM from a backward class with Shivakumar, who belongs to a dominant community, could be politically unfavourable.
According to A. Narayana, a political analyst and faculty member at Azim Premji University, Siddaramaiah appears to be leveraging a perceived increase in resentment among Dalits to argue that oppressed communities should have the opportunity to claim the CM's position after him, rather than passing it on to Shivakumar.
'Ground for negotiation'
According to the findings of the survey, the total population of Vokkaligas in Karnataka is 61.6 lakh or 10.3 percent. Lingayats are 66.3 lakh or 11 percent of the total population. These numbers are much lower than previous estimates—14 percent and 17 percent of the total population, respectively.
According to the government, a total of 5.98 crore people or 94.17 percent of the state's population were asked 55 questions on various parameters for the survey.
Though the Congress under Siddaramaiah has relied more on AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits) for support, the party has individual leaders who enjoy caste-based support in certain constituencies.
'For the party to put up a strong fight in the next elections, Shivakumar is necessary. It may not be so much in terms of caste but more in terms of his ability to mobilise funds. The reading of some of the Vokkaliga ministers and leaders in the Congress is that if Shivakumar is alienated, it will be difficult for them to win in their own Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies,' Narayana told ThePrint.
He added that Shivakumar has tried to project himself as a leader of the Vokkaligas, which has not helped him loosen the grip of the Janata Dal (Secular) over the community. But any attempts to sideline Shivakumar would result in the community not backing the party entirely, piling up the challenges for the Congress in 2028.
The analysts believe the Karnataka government will go ahead with the state resurvey since there is no clarity on the qualitative aspects of the Centre's proposed national caste survey nor a fixed timeline for when it will be conducted.
Pani said Siddaramaiah was formulating a strategy to capitalise on fragmented sub-caste groups.
Though the Lingayats are a force to reckon with, the community has many sub-sects which identify themselves under other categories of backward classes than the social umbrella of the caste group.
According to Pani, the Congress will use the caste census to control the narrative. 'The whole purpose will be reservation but the question is whether he (CM) will actually go through and fix it (caste survey), or just keep the ground open for further negotiations till 2028,' he said.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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