Asean-6 GDP growth to moderate to 4.4pct in 2025, 2026
In a note today, Maybank IB said Asean's growth held up better than expected in the first half of 2025 (1H 2025) despite tariff and geopolitical shocks.
"Higher United States tariffs have had a limited impact on growth so far because of the de-escalation in the US-China tariff war.
"Frontloading during the 90-day reprieve and monetary policy easing also helped. Growth upgrades to our current forecasts are possible for Singapore (+2.4 per cent) and Vietnam (+7.3 per cent)," it said.
The risk of a severe downturn due to higher US tariffs on Asean and China dissipated following the US-China tariff war de-escalating.
"Export-oriented economies such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand benefited from frontloading of US-bound shipments, although there may be some payback in the second half.
"Manufacturing supply chains continue to diversify from China, driving foreign direct investment (FDI) and fuelling fixed investments in Asean, particularly Malaysia. Growth in the first half was also supported by resilient performance in the global economy, including the US and China," it said.
Maybank IB also said higher US tariffs will likely dampen Asean's export growth from 4Q 2025.
"Nonetheless, the severity of the export slowdown will vary between countries, with Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia being more resilient, given the lower tariffs imposed.
"Steady FDI inflows into Vietnam and Malaysia will support export growth by boosting production capacity," it said.
Vietnam was the primary beneficiary of supply chain shifts during trade war 1.0 in 2018-2019, it said.
"The FDI boost during trade war 2.0 could spread beyond Vietnam to other parts of Asean, such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, as hedging production locations becomes imperative amid changing tariff policies.
"Over time, the US' crackdown on trade diversion should encourage the build-up of local content and a more vertically integrated supply chain within countries," it added.
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