MLB geographic realignment rumors: Everything we know so far

USA Today

2 days ago

During the Little League Classic between the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners on ESPN, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred hinted at a big change.
Manfred spoke with ESPN's Karl Ravech, Eduardo Pérez, and David Cone while on the Sunday night broadcast. While there was only so much that Manfred could say during a relatively short segment, there was one moment that particularly stood out for baseball fans.
According to Manfred, some time in the relatively near future, MLB expansion could also lead to divisional realignment based on team geography. But what would exactly would that look like and when would it happen?
Here is everything that you need to know based on what we have heard so far.
What did Rob Manfred say?
If you want to hear the words directly from Manfred, you can watch the clip below.
Here is what Manfred said on the broadcast about whether or not he could see expansion and realignment down the road:
"I can. I think the first two topics are related in my mind. I think if we expand, it provides us with an opportunity to geographically re-align. I think it would save a lot of wear and tear on our players in terms of travel and I think our postseason format would be even more appealing for entities like ESPN because you'd be playing out of the East, out of the West and that 10 o'clock time slot where we sometimes get Boston-Anaheim would be two West Coast teams. That 10 o'clock slot that's a problem for us sometimes becomes a real opportunity for our West Coast audience."
Manfred added owners realize there is a "demand" for Major League Baseball in a lot of great cities and there is an opportunity to do something good around the expansion process.
This is not the first time that Manfred has made this argument, though.
He said something similar to Ken Rosenthal in 2018 as well (via The Athletic):
"The reality of today's media environment is that if you went to 32 teams and you could get to a more geographically-based alignment, you could help your playoff format, you could reduce your travel, you could more easily discuss things like a split season."
Manfred hedged at the time by saying that he isn't necessarily in favor of this, but outlined the possibility.
When would this actually happen?
Based on the comments above, it seems that Manfred wouldn't begin divisional realignment until expansion teams started playing.
So reverse engineering from that clue, we can determine the following general timeline (via The Athletic):
The commissioner wants to have two new teams' locations picked out by the time he retires in 2029, although the clubs won't yet be playing. But Manfred has long pegged league expansion to the Rays and the Athletics completing their long-running quests for new stadiums.
The A's, who are moving to Sacramento, Calif., for at least three seasons starting in 2025, are '100 percent full steam ahead' with their planned subsequent move to Las Vegas for 2028.
So we won't anticipate realignment until multiple conditions are met.
One is that the Athletics and Rays both need new stadiums, which has a deadline of 2029 (when Manfred's five-year term as MLB commissioner is over) at the latest.
The other is that expansion teams will start playing, will come some time after 2029. In other words, this isn't happening any time particularly soon.
How would this change the divisions?
There are a few points to consider here, but the first is that according to Manfred, we can expect four teams per division instead of five (via Sports Business Journal):
"There are also advantages in going from 30 to 32 in terms of schedule and format,' Manfred said on the Questions For Cancer Research podcast. 'It would create an opportunity to realign (divisions) – fours work a lot better in schedules than fives.'
Manfred also added that among the expansion teams, one will likely come from the Eastern time zone and the other either Western time zone or Mountain time zone.
It seems that eight four-team divisions is currently the preference over four eight-team divisions.
MLB may create Eastern Conference and Western Conference
Back in 2018, Jayson Stark reported that one way this could work is by getting rid of the American League and National League.
According to Stark, this is something that at the time was under serious consideration (via The Athletic):
"Imagine if baseball divided its landscape along the geography-based lines of the NBA – as opposed to the artificial, league-based lines drawn up in 1901.
Is that really where baseball is headed?
To be honest, it's way too premature to tell. What we can tell you, though, is that baseball's Strategic Planning Committee has looked at that realignment-by-geography scenario long and hard."
Then in 2023, former MLB executive Jim Bowden laid out one proposal based entirely on geography.
Here was his plan, with asterisks next to expansion teams awarded to Charlotte and Nashville (via The Athletic):
EASTERN CONFERENCE
East Division
North Division
Mid-Atlantic Division
Southeast Division
Let's just say...that Eastern Division looks like a juggernaut.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Midwest Division
Southwest Division
Pacific Coast Division
West Division
Given the history, it is difficult to imagine a world in which the World Series is not played between the winners of the National League and American League.
Additionally, this proposal would also ruin some fun rivalries by placing the Giants and Dodgers in different divisions.
Would Major League Baseball really break up such important rivalries?
In a February 2024 column, Bradford Doolittle wondered about this predicament (via ESPN):
"A key question: How do we identify, maintain and create the highest number of genuine rivalries?
The importance of rivalries, whether they are based on geography or tradition, will be one of the key elements of baseball's structure to watch in the seasons to come. The importance of some rivalries are obvious and longstanding. Others come to the fore, while others recede. The task for baseball will be to understand the extent to which rivalries help sell the game as in person and broadcast products."
Later, he continued:
"Before we accept the inevitably of radical realignment, we need many answers. How important are rivalries to the game's brand? What are the real advantages in a schedule and travel with a geographic realignment? To what extent is MLB willing to alienate traditionalists when it comes to longtime league affiliations? How is relative market size attached to the issue of alignment?
These are the debates we will have during the years leading up to the next expansion, and there are a lot of them. Buckle up."
So with that in mind, perhaps the American League and National League will stay intact after all.
How could realignment retain the AL and NL?
In his newsletter, Nate Silver also attempted a breakdown that was slightly more aligned with that idea.
Here was what he suggested in March 2024, with expansion teams awarded to Montreal and Nashville.
Like above, one asterisk denotes an expansion team while two denotes a move from one league to the other:
American League East
American League Midwest
American League South
American League West
National League East
National League Midwest
National League South
National League West
Will MLB divisional realignment happen for sure?
No, not necessarily.
Former MLB commissioner Fay Vincent lobbied for divisional realignment, and it did not go well. He was eventually defeated in court and the idea did not pass.
Ultimately, we are still a long way from a radical realignment in baseball.
But it is at least a consideration and something fans should keep in mind.