Australia votes: who is going to win and by how much?
AUSTRALIA VOTES: STATE OF PLAY
How do you win?
* A political party needs 76 seats in the House of Representatives to form a majority government
* A net loss of just three seats will leave Labor needing to negotiate with the crossbench to form a minority government
* The coalition requires a net gain of 19 seats to govern in its own right, or a uniform swing of about 5.3 per cent
* If neither party makes it to the requisite 76 seats, whichever has the most would enter into negotiations with the crossbench first
* Published polls suggest Labor is most likely to win government but could fall short of a majority, while the coalition claims its internal data paints a vastly different picture
* A minority parliament would be the first since 2010 and only the third since 1943
Where do things stand?
* Labor - 78 seats (including seat redistributions)
* Coalition - 57 seats (including vacant seats after retirement, former MPs who defected to the crossbench and seat redistributions)
* Independents - nine seats
* Greens - four seats
* Katter's Australian Party - one seat
* Centre Alliance - one seat
What's changed since the last election?
* The Victorian seat of Higgins and the NSW seat of North Sydney have been abolished after a redistribution
* Western Australia has gained an electorate with the seat of Bullwinkel in Perth's outskirts
* Nationals MP Andrew Gee left the party to become an independent, while coalition MPs Russell Broadbent and Ian Goodenough also defected to the crossbench
* The former Liberal safe seat of Aston fell to Labor at a 2023 by-election
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