The keys to making smart buys at a sports card show from someone who learned the hard way

New York Times

19-07-2025

Card shows are exciting because you can make a purchase in an instant, and often on a card you had no prior interest in buying. But this is also why they're dangerous. So with the National Sports Collectors Convention coming up at the end of the month in Chicago, here are some tips from someone who has made every mistake that can be made as a buyer at a show over decades. I've learned these lessons the hard way so you don't have to.
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Being impulsive is fun. Planning is boring. But you need to have a plan before you walk in the door. It's hard to have a precise plan because we don't know what's going to be available to buy. But you can at least determine whether you want to buy ultra modern (current players), modern (non-vintage, let's call it Junk Wax Era circa 1986 to non-active players) or vintage (technically 1973 or earlier, when cards were issued in series, but basically everything else).
That narrows your focus considerably. From there, you pick players to target. In ultra modern, maybe a player you think is about to be called up. In modern, maybe a rookie card of your dad's favorite player. A vintage plan could focus on lower-grade cards of inner-circle Hall of Famers from the 1960s or graded cards of post-WWII Hall of Fame quarterbacks. The bottom line: You can't be in the market for everything.
The next step is setting a budget and sticking to it. And that's a ceiling and not a floor. Don't let your money burn a hole in your pocket. Window shopping is information gathering on prices and inventory, which is never a waste of time. And watching dealers make sales to buyers and listening to that negotiation process is free yet valuable experience. Be a fly on the wall.
Don't buy anything until you've seen everything at the show. There's nothing worse than blowing up your show budget and then seeing a better deal or a better card at another table. This doesn't mean you're inspecting every table. If you're in the market for vintage, you just quickly walk by all the non-vintage tables with just a glance. Vice versa if you're buying newer cards. So casing out a normal show takes very little time. Obviously, something as massive as The National is a different beast.
Once you've narrowed your potential purchases, you need to know what those cards are worth. So you need an app on your phone (and a decent cell phone connection, which is tougher to get the bigger the show). I use CardLadder but you could use Vintage Card Pricing or MarketMovers. They're all good. Make sure whatever you use has easily searchable sales data by card/year/grade. These apps can be expensive – nearly $200 per year though you can also purchase for less by the month. If you want to do this at no cost, use eBay advanced search and filter for 'sold items' only.
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Now you need to know which sold prices to look at. Use auction only; Buy It Now prices are typically 20 percent to 30 percent more than auction prices. Pricing apps typically average it all; but I only average the auction prices. You can't pick the lowest sale any more than the dealer can pick the highest sale. Be reasonable. With most modern and ultra modern, the simple grade-to-grade comparison is sufficient. Vintage is more of an art with eye appeal/centering being king. Perfect centering means perfectly even borders in all directions. So a centered version of a card will be worth 30 percent to 50 percent more than one with more typical 70/30 centering in the same grade. And if the corners also look good for the grade, the total premium over the average price for the same grade could be 100 percent. Note that dealers will sometimes exaggerate how well centered a card is.
What if you're buying raw/ungraded cards? Well you better have a jeweler's loupe to look at corners and edges closely. You can also take a picture with your phone and zoom in on all the corners. Never pay for the grade the dealer is saying or that you hope for — pay at least one grade less – so if you think the card is near mint (7), pay only the average for an excellent-mint (6). You need to give yourself a margin for error. I'm not accusing dealers of duplicity in their statements of what a raw card will grade. It's just REALLY hard to know if a card is getting a 5 or a 6, or an 8 or a 9. 10? Forget it. NEVER pay a 10 price for a raw ultra-modern card.
Now that you have narrowed your general search and picked a handful of cards you're interested in buying, pursue them in order of your preference. Dealers who display their prices on the front of the card with a sticker are the best. A price on the back of the card once you've asked and the dealer turns it over is fine. Not having any price on the card is bad. Never let a dealer with no price on a card ask you what you want to pay. You can't both buy and sell the card. Insist the dealer gives you a price.
If the price of the card is 50 percent or more over your research, just walk away. There is nothing to negotiate. You're not going to convince the dealer to be reasonable. You'll get the old, 'I have more into this card than that!' (That's the dealer's problem, not yours — the card isn't worth more because the dealer claims to have paid a bad price; if the dealer robbed some widow of the card at a yard sale, are you going to be given a massive discount? Of course not.)
You should probably walk away even at 30 percent over comps. If the dealer is 15 percent to 25 percent over your researched price, you're probably going to be able to make a deal. Short your counter offer by the same amount the dealer is over in hopes of meeting smack dab in the middle.
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Cash is king at a show. If you have it, always say you'll pay cash. Some people flip a coin for a small difference in negotiation. That always draws a small crowd to the dealer's table. If you lose, you're paying that premium though. I've never done it but you'll get your price 50 percent of the time.
At a show, you should want the card for 5-to-10 percent under the online auction value. That's because the dealer isn't paying at least 15 percent commissions on the sale. That savings should be at least evenly shared by both of you. So 7.5 percent under comps is a perfectly reasonable offer because the dealer saves the other half of the commission. You don't even have to say this. You know it. The dealer knows it. Yes, the dealer has the small expense of a table at the show – maybe $100 at an average show on the thousands of sales they'll make. But you've paid a similar percentage of that sale to get into the show.
A lot of people try to expand a deal by including other cards in it. Expanding deals to bring down the overall price is fine if you're a dealer and are just reselling. But if you're collecting, you're probably buying too many cards. Bundling is a step on the way to hoarding and having boxes of cards you don't even remember buying. Stay focused.
Do not rush. Do not feel pressured. Do not hesitate to walk away from a sale that you're ready to say yes to because you feel you need to research the card more. Do all your due diligence so you can buy with confidence. The 10 percent of purchases you lose out on by being deliberate are nothing compared to the post-purchase anxiety or regret you risk by rushing to buy. There are so many cards at a show. Having someone swoop in almost immediately on a card you're pursuing while you gather more data is very unlikely. And even if it does happen, there are always other cards to pursue.
Remember, about 95% of cards are easier to buy than to sell. It's almost always a buyer's market at a show. Figuratively, you hold the cards, not the dealer.
If you plan to attend The National Sports Collectors Convention in Chicago on July 31 and you want The Athletic to help you track down a special card you'll be looking for on the show floor as part of an upcoming video project, email us at [e-mail] with the cards you're targeting.
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