Nvidia-backed CoreWeave is plummeting after earnings. Here's what analysts have to say

CNBC

2 days ago

CoreWeave's latest quarterly results surpassed Wall Street's expectations, and while analysts reacted favorably to the results, an upcoming lock-up expiration was another matter. CoreWeave – which rents out Nvidia chips to companies – posted second-quarter revenue of $1.21 billion, above the $1.08 billion that analysts surveyed by LSEG had estimated. The company also issued better-than-expected forward guidance. While CoreWeave shares shares more than doubled in the past three months, soaring 107%, the stock was down 12% in early trading Wednesday. CRWV 1D mountain CRWV, 1-day Some analysts said that the move lower could be tied to lock-up expiration effective at the close of the market on Thursday – when insiders will be allowed to start selling shares following the company's March initial public offering – which could also affect CoreWeave's planned takeover of Core Scientific . Nvidia owned about a 5% stake in CoreWeave at the time of its IPO. "This could have direct implications for the announced all-stock acquisition of CORZ as the implied valuation is directly tied to the performance of CRWV's stock," said Citizens JMP analyst Greg Miller, who rates CoreWeave a market perform. "As such, we believe any downward pressure resulting from increased share supply or insider selling could affect the deal dynamics and increase investor opposition." While the lock-up expiration adds one element of uncertainty, investors may also be questioning CoreWeave's operating cash flow and planned capital spending, which "again disappointed in-quarter," Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow (equal weight) said. In fact, most of the Street only has a neutral view of CoreWeave, with 16 of 24 analysts rating it a hold rating, according to LSEG. Only five rate it a strong buy or buy. Here's what other analysts said about CoreWeave on the heels of its results. Morgan Stanley: equal-weight rating, $91 price target Analyst Keith Weiss' target implies downside potential of almost 39% from Tuesday's close. "Bottom line, accruing and expanding large contracts from the most demanding GenAI users provide strong validation of CoreWeave's strong positioning for the ramping GPU build-out, broadening the customer base likely proves key to increasing investor confidence in the durability of this growth. … While we remain on the sidelines awaiting further evidence of the broadening of the software story at CoreWeave, for investors with strong conviction in the build-out of the GPU economy and longer-term investment horizons, CRWV should be considered as a core holding." JPMorgan: Overweight, $135 Analyst Mark Murphy's target calls for more than 9% downside compared with where CoreWeave closed Tuesday. "The fundamental drivers and business trends remain very solid, with the company speaking to strong demand that is outstripping supply and conveying robust pipeline momentum. … Net-net, there could be a wide range of outcomes for CoreWeave. For this reason, we expect the stock to provide a wild, lumpy, volatile ride, requiring a risk tolerance that may not exist for most investors. If we end up with heightened economic volatility, CRWV shares would probably suffer disproportionately due to risk-off positioning. However, our sense is that investors are pricing in the glass-half-empty view more than the other view." Citigroup: buy, $160 Analyst Tyler Radke sees more than 7% upside potential. "CoreWeave notched another impressive revenue beat with slightly greater $ upside vs. last quarter and a strong Q3 revenue/FY25 guidance raise (+$159M). Though a strong revenue performance, the booking/capex figures were not as spectacular with incremental backlog additions (ex previously announced OpenAI contract) at just $200M, while profitability was mixed (EBIT beat but EBIT $s reiterated for the full year on higher spending). That said, guidance implies a significant ramp in capex/revenue acceleration in Q4 which is likely driven by Blackwell and significant data capacity online, which we see as a positive catalyst ahead. … we'd expect shares to be volatile but expect weakness to be bought with AI demand remaining strong and revenue acceleration ahead." Bank of America: neutral, $168 Analyst Brad Sills' target implies about 13% upside. "While the magnitudes of the Q2 topline beat and Q3 raise were slightly below the Q1 print, results were solid, validating that CoreWeave remains well positioned as a leading AI infrastructure vendor. … the lockup expires on Friday, which is likely to place pressure on the shares … we believe CoreWeave remains well positioned to benefit from a ramping AI infrastructure industry." Stifel: hold, $120 Analyst Ruben Roy's target would equal more than 19% downside. "We remain constructive long term and are encouraged by today's data points, but see near-term upside capped by the potential CORZ related dilution and uncertainty, and the pending lock-up expiration on Thursday."