WWE vs. AEW: Who's winning 2025's wrestling war?

Yahoo

a day ago

If there's one thing that titillates wrestling obsessives, it's when one of the major promotions — WWE or AEW — makes an explicit reference to the other. These days the digs and attacks tend to be much rarer than in the past, but that doesn't stop them from being thrilling when they happen.
Witness the social-media flutter this past May when an enterprising journalist used AEW's Double or Nothing press huddle to ask Tony Khan his opinions on WWE's none-too-subtle tactic of booking NXT premium live events against AEW's most important pay-per-view shows — one of the most aggressive competitive moves WWE has made against Khan's company.
Advertisement
That the AEW founder delivered an impeccably diplomatic answer did little to quell the excitement of those who spend their hours musing on the state of competition between WWE and AEW.
Of course, here at Uncrowned, we have much less reason to mince our words on these things. So here's an analysis of the status of the battle between the two big promotions.
The valuation gap
Before making any kind of comparison between the two promotions, you need to acknowledge the 10-ton elephant that squats over this topic. Whatever you make of the rival products, WWE is objectively a much larger company than AEW in terms of money in the bank (no pun intended).
Advertisement
Even the most flattering estimates value AEW at around $2 billion, which is still less than a quarter of what TKO paid for WWE two years ago. And that latter number was before WWE finalized its massive Netflix deal, which has helped add some billions to TKO's overall market cap in the past year.
None of this means there aren't specific areas where the numbers are closer (television viewing figures, for example), but it would be silly to pretend WWE doesn't have a massive edge due to its size and history.
Media rights and viewing figures
For all the focus on live shows, the modern pro-wrestling game is a television business: Both WWE and AEW make most of their money by selling their product to television and streaming networks.
Advertisement
For a rough comparison, WWE's various deals (Netflix, Peacock, NBCUniversal, etc.) bring in somewhere in the region of $1 billion per year. By contrast, AEW's recent media deal with Warner Bros. Discovery is valued at around $185 million per year — so less than a fifth of what WWE brings in.
The big prize here is the Netflix deal, which was rightly hailed as a bit of a game-changer for wrestling when it was confirmed last year. The slight wrinkle on that front is WWE's Netflix viewing figures haven't been as huge as some expected, prompting some whispers about whether the streaming giant paid too much.
As for viewership, AEW's U.S. television audience is around half of WWE's. 'AEW Collision' typically draws around 600,000 viewers in the U.S., compared to 1.2 million for 'WWE SmackDown.' That said, AEW's numbers have dipped over the past year or so, but now appear to be stabilizing. (Hat tip to the excellent Wrestlenomics, who publish detailed numbers on this.)
The verdict: Advantage WWE
John Cena and CM Punk face off during "WWE Raw." (Craig Ambrosio/WWE via Getty Images)
(WWE via Getty Images)
Live shows and ticket gates
As much as we get tired of TKO's obsession with announcing all these record gates at every PLE, there's no denying WWE's audience revenue is seriously impressive at the moment. It just did $3 million for 'WWE Raw' in London, for example.
Advertisement
On top of that, TKO's current focus is persuading cities to pay hefty 'site fees' for the right to host bigger events — like New Jersey paying $7 million to host this year's WWE SummerSlam double-header. That's almost certainly a big factor in why WrestleMania is heading back to Las Vegas in 2026.
On the other hand, AEW's gate revenue is much lower. Double or Nothing made $600,000 last month, for example. That said, their overseas events are still big league: All In at London's Wembley Stadium made $9 million and $6 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Gate revenues are one thing, but what about the crowds? On average, AEW's weekly shows draw around one quarter of the WWE audience (around 3,000 compared to 11,000 fans) — a ratio that has gotten steeper in WWE's favor over the past two years.
AEW's bigger shows are still drawing decent crowds (in the 10,000 range) that are on par with the smaller WWE PLEs. At the end of the day, though, there's one wrestling promotion that can fill giant American stadiums like Allegiant in Las Vegas or MetLife in New Jersey — and it isn't Khan's.
Advertisement
The verdict: Advantage WWE
The talent
Defining a great wrestler is always going to involve subjective judgments. But on a business level, I'd argue that it usually boils down to one particular metric: the strength of the personal brand in terms of drawing viewers.
If we're taking stock of the two promotions, there's no question both have some massive talents. But does AEW really have anyone who matches the Hollywood-level star power of The Rock, John Cena and Rhea Ripley? I'd venture not.
It's that kind of clout that allows WWE to poach talent from its rival when it wants to. Just look at Mariah May and Jade Cargill, for example. Both had plenty of momentum in AEW and were likely making decent wages, but when the bigger brand came knocking, they were happy to make the jump.
Advertisement
That said, we shouldn't fully discount AEW's tagline of being 'where the best wrestle.' It's a good insight into how Khan sees his brand — and plenty of wrestling aficionados would agree that he's doing a great job on that front. Just look at the rave reaction to 2025's Double or Nothing show, for example.
The verdict: Advantage WWE
Kenny Omega's return has bolstered AEW's roster. ()
(Etsuo Hara via Getty Images)
The product
In many ways, this is the big question: Is the product any good? Television deals, gate revenue and site fees might bring in the bacon, but, at the end of the day, they're all downstream from the quality of the product.
So how do the promotions compare right now? Let's start with WWE. Going into 2025, the company was widely regarded to be on fire — particularly with the Netflix deal incoming and the anticipation of John Cena's retirement tour. But there's a growing sense the product has been losing steam over the past few months.
Advertisement
Perhaps the success of the Bloodline/Cody Rhodes era gave us unrealistic expectations, or maybe we're all overreacting to the anticlimactic payoff to this year's WrestleMania. But it doesn't change the fact there's been a significant vibe shift from the fan base.
And what of AEW? It's had some rough moments, for sure, but the most recent shows have begun to turn a corner. Double or Nothing was an absolute slam dunk and seems to be setting things up nicely for their biggest show of the year with July's All In.
On a long-term view, though, the fundamentals haven't changed: WWE is still the granddaddy of pro wrestling. But if we're talking strictly about momentum — i.e. where things are moving right now — then AEW's lines are pointing in the right direction, while WWE's are floundering slightly.
The verdict: (Slight) advantage AEW