Monsoon break likely in early August; Gadgchiroli's Mulchera receives 240mm in 24 hours

Time of India

3 days ago

Pune: Meteorologists have warned of a potential monsoon break in early Aug, a period traditionally prone to such disruptions, while triple-digit rainfall lashed multiple locations in Maharashtra, with Mulchera (240mm) in Gadchiroli emerging as one of the wettest stations in the 24-hour period ending Thursday morning.
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Weather experts said preliminary signs suggested that the monsoon trough might shift northward because of a low-pressure system moving across central India. If this continues, it may signal the northward displacement of the monsoon trough. The positioning of the trough along the Himalayan foothills could trigger the season's first break-in-monsoon condition, they said.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said remnants of tropical cyclone 'Wipha' emerged over the north Bay of Bengal, leading to the formation of a low pressure area over the same region on Thursday.
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather, said: "The low-pressure system that has formed over the Bay of Bengal will not behave like a normal monsoon system. Usually, these systems track along the eastern parts, move through central regions and progress to northern areas, possibly reaching Rajasthan.
This system is, however, displaying somewhat different behaviour. There are specific reasons for this deviation."
Sharma attributed the unusual pattern to an anticyclone system. "A strong anticyclone over northwest India may prevent the system from moving towards northwestern regions, potentially forcing its movement closer to Himalayan foothills and causing the trough line to shift north of its normal position. When the trough line shifts closer to the foothills of the Himalayas, rainfall reduces significantly over most western, southern and central parts, including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and the southern peninsula," Sharma said.
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He, however, said the next 3-4 days would provide a clearer picture.
In an updated advisory, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has revised its high-wave warning, now predicting higher waves of 3.8 to 4.7 metres along the coasts of Thane, Mumbai city and suburbs, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Palghar and Sindhudurg districts than previously predicted. The warning period has been extended from 5.30pm on Thursday to 8.30pm on Saturday.
Small boats have been strictly advised against venturing into the sea during this period.
Speaking about the likely break in monsoon, a senior IMD official said, "Early Aug is generally considered a break-prone period meteorologically. Some forecasts suggest that a break phase may occur in late July or early Aug. In one sense, a break phase can be beneficial. There has already been substantial rainfall over the core monsoon zone, so a pause allows for much-needed sunlight.
At the same time, regions in the Himalayas and parts of northeast India that have so far received less rain may benefit too, as they often get more rainfall during such phases.
"
In a separate incident in Gadchiroli district, a gram sevak was successfully rescued after being trapped in the suddenly rising floodwaters of Kolpalli nullah in Gomani village. Police and local rescue teams responded immediately to ensure his safe evacuation.
Pune: Meteorologists have warned of a potential monsoon break in early Aug, a period traditionally prone to such disruptions, while triple-digit rainfall lashed multiple locations in Maharashtra, with Mulchera (240mm) in Gadchiroli emerging as one of the wettest stations in the 24-hour period ending Thursday morning.
Weather experts said preliminary signs suggested that the monsoon trough might shift northward because of a low-pressure system moving across central India.
If this continues, it may signal the northward displacement of the monsoon trough. The positioning of the trough along the Himalayan foothills could trigger the season's first break-in-monsoon condition, they said.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said remnants of tropical cyclone 'Wipha' emerged over the north Bay of Bengal, leading to the formation of a low pressure area over the same region on Thursday.
GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather, said: "The low-pressure system that has formed over the Bay of Bengal will not behave like a normal monsoon system. Usually, these systems track along the eastern parts, move through central regions and progress to northern areas, possibly reaching Rajasthan.
This system is, however, displaying somewhat different behaviour. There are specific reasons for this deviation."
Sharma attributed the unusual pattern to an anticyclone system. "A strong anticyclone over northwest India may prevent the system from moving towards northwestern regions, potentially forcing its movement closer to Himalayan foothills and causing the trough line to shift north of its normal position. When the trough line shifts closer to the foothills of the Himalayas, rainfall reduces significantly over most western, southern and central parts, including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and the southern peninsula," Sharma said.
He, however, said the next 3-4 days would provide a clearer picture.
In an updated advisory, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services has revised its high-wave warning, now predicting higher waves of 3.8 to 4.7 metres along the coasts of Thane, Mumbai city and suburbs, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Palghar and Sindhudurg districts than previously predicted. The warning period has been extended from 5.30pm on Thursday to 8.30pm on Saturday.
Small boats have been strictly advised against venturing into the sea during this period.
Speaking about the likely break in monsoon, a senior IMD official said, "Early Aug is generally considered a break-prone period meteorologically. Some forecasts suggest that a break phase may occur in late July or early Aug. In one sense, a break phase can be beneficial. There has already been substantial rainfall over the core monsoon zone, so a pause allows for much-needed sunlight.
At the same time, regions in the Himalayas and parts of northeast India that have so far received less rain may benefit too, as they often get more rainfall during such phases.
"
In a separate incident in Gadchiroli district, a gram sevak was successfully rescued after being trapped in the suddenly rising floodwaters of Kolpalli nullah in Gomani village. Police and local rescue teams responded immediately to ensure his safe evacuation.