Value of India's crude imports from Russia surges significantly at a CAGR of 96% during FY20-FY25: Report
In a significant shift,
Russian oil
now dominates India's crude basket, accounting for about 35 per cent of total imports in Financial Year (FY) 2025, it was mere just 2 per cent in FY2020. The value of these imports has surged at a 96 per cent of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years.
This rebalancing is driven mainly by cost advantages and alternative transport routes that bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the share of Middle Eastern suppliers has fallen, prompting geopolitical and commercial recalibrations.
Now, with the US pushing for steep tariffs on Russian-linked petroleum exports and the EU tightening its sanctions regime, India is taking steps to protect a significant share of its petroleum product (POL) exports, valued at 44.4 billion in FY25.
India has emerged as the seventh-largest exporter of refined petroleum products, with the Netherlands, UAE, and Singapore as key markets.
On the supply side, India is the world's third-largest crude oil importer, with demand projected to rise from 5.64 million barrels per day in 2024 to 6.66 million bpd by 2030.
However, domestic production continues to decline, dropping from 32.2 MMT in FY2020 to 28.7 MMT in FY2025. As a result, India's crude import dependency has reached 88.2 per cent.
Refining capacity, however, has expanded modestly to 257 MMTPA across 23 refineries, making India the world's fourth-largest refining hub. The government aims to increase this to 309.5 MMTPA by 2030, backed by major investments from state-run firms like
IOCL
,
BPCL
, and
HPCL
.
Natural gas, another critical pillar, saw demand reach 71 BCM in FY2025, with 50 per cent met through LNG imports.
The US has overtaken the UAE as India's second-largest LNG supplier, aided by lifted export bans and long-term contracts.
India plans to double its share of gas in the energy mix to 15 per cent by 2030, supported by pipeline expansion and regasification projects.
Government initiatives have also propelled reforms in upstream exploration. Under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), the 10th OALP round offered 25 new blocks, and the Special CBM Round targeted unconventional gas extraction. These efforts are supported by updated regulations and policies aimed at attracting investment.
The report notes that India's clean energy push is gaining traction. The
Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala
Yojana (
PMUY
) has expanded LPG access to over 103 million households, while ethanol blending touched 20 per cent in early 2025--six years ahead of schedule. City gas distribution is also being ramped up, aiming to cover 70 per cent of the population.
However, challenges remain. Price volatility, US sanctions on Russian oil, and lagging domestic output pose persistent threats. The report warns that refinery capacity additions have lagged behind targets, and Middle East tensions could disrupt crucial supply lines.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
34 minutes ago
- Time of India
India-US trade: Officials react cautiously to Russia penalty threat
NEW DELHI: As President Trump threatened to impose a penalty on India for its trade ties with Russia, Indian officials reacted cautiously as they reiterated India's position that securing energy needs of the Indian people is the overriding priority. A source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said India is buying oil not because it wants to help Moscow but because it's the right thing to do based on the prevailing market conditions and the global geopolitical situation. Trump said India has always bought "a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of energy along with China". However, India had been keen on announcing new plans for defence procurement and co-production arrangements with the US too. During PM Narendra Modi's visit to the US in Feb, Trump pushed India to lower tariffs and buy more defence products from the US that would facilitate a fair trade deal. With the US encouraging India to reduce its dependence on Russian-origin equipment, the leaders had agreed to expand defence sales and co-production to strengthen interoperability and defence industrial cooperation. In that context, govt sources here said some of Trump's claims don't stand up to scrutiny. "The fact is that India-US defence trade has been increasing since 2008, while the dependence on Russia continues to reduce considerably," said an official on condition of anonymity, adding that the US is now among the top arms suppliers to India along with Russia and France. While much has been made of India's imports from Russia, little attention has been paid to the fact that its crude imports from the US have seen a significant jump too with the US emerging as the 4th largest supplier to India in April this year, according to Indian officials. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Discover stories of India's leading eco-innovators at Ecopreneur Honours 2025
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
US stock market today: S&P 500 falls, Dow Jones drops, Nasdaq offers relief. Check top performing stocks
Live Events FAQs (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel S&P 500 edged down by 0.1 per cent, coming off its first loss after setting all-time highs for six successive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171 points, or 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1 per cent. S&P 500 slipped 7.96 points to 6,362.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171.71 to 44,461.28, and the Nasdaq composite rose 31.38 to 21, came after doubts rose on Wall Street about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver economy-juicing cuts to interest rates by September. Stocks felt pressure from rising Treasury yields in the bond market after the Federal Reserve voted to hold its main interest rate steady. The move may upset President Donald Trump, who has been angrily lobbying for lower interest rates, but it was widely expected on Wall Street.A cut in rates would give the job market and overall economy a boost, but it could also risk fueling inflation when Trump's tariffs may be set to raise prices for U.S. consumers. The Fed's job is to keep both the job market and inflation in a good on Wednesday announced a 25 per cent tariff on imports coming from India, along with an additional tax because of India's purchases of Russian oil, beginning on August 1. That's when stiff tariffs Trump has proposed for many other countries are also scheduled to kick in, unless they reach trade deals that lower the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 3.93% from 3.86% late Tuesday. It tends to closely follow expectations for what the Fed will do with its overnight interest 10-year Treasury, which also takes into account longer-term expectations for the economy and inflation, rose to 4.36% from 4.34%.A report earlier in the morning suggested the U.S. economy's growth was much stronger during the spring than economists expected. But underlying trends beneath the surface may be more discouraging.'Cutting through the noise of the swings in imports, the economy is still chugging along, but it is showing signs of sputtering,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Wall Street, Humana rose 12.4% after the insurer and health care giant reported stronger results for the spring than expected. It also raised its forecasts for profit and revenue over the full maker Electronic Arts climbed 5.7% after likewise topping Wall Street's are under pressure to deliver solid profit growth. They need to in order to justify the big jumps in their stock prices during recent months, which has caused some critics to say the broad U.S. stock market looks too Technologies, whose stock came into the day with a 27.5% gain for the year so far, tumbled even though it reported a stronger-than-expected profit for the latest quarter. The heating, ventilation and air conditioning company's revenue came up short of analysts' estimates, as did its forecast for profit in the current quarter. It dropped 8.4%.Freeport-McMoRan, a copper producer with mines around the world, tumbled 9.5% after Trump signed an executive order to tax imports of copper at 50%.Starbucks stocks slipped 0.2% after reporting a weaker profit than analysts expected as it tries to turn around its operations. The company is hoping to boost its performance through improved store operations and new products, including a cold foam protein stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed across Europe and Asia. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.4%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 0.7% for two of the bigger moves.A1. Top three indexes of US Stock Market are S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq.A2. Starbucks stocks slipped 0.2% after reporting a weaker profit than analysts expected as it tries to turn around its operations. The company is hoping to boost its performance through improved store operations and new products, including a cold foam protein drink.
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Trump dumps 25% tariff on India from Friday, plus penalty for buying Russian oil
NEW DELHI: US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from India, along with an unspecified penalty, from Aug 1 after the two countries failed to reach an interim trade deal, triggering nervousness among exporters. After making several claims over the last four months of having got India to agree to slash tariffs, Trump took to social media to announce the stiff duties and linked the action to India's high trade surplus with the US and purchase of Russian oil and arms. "Also, they (India) have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia's largest buyer of energy, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to stop the killing in Ukraine - all things not good! India will therefore be paying 25%, plus a penalty for the above, starting Aug 1," Trump posted on Truth Social. The US president had earlier announced a "reciprocal tariff" of 26% on India. He later paused it, but left a 10% baseline tariff on all countries. Trump's proposed penalty has complicated the calculations for Indian businesses. Over the last three months, he has managed to get other trading partners such as the European Union, Japan, Britain and Vietnam to open up their markets for American goods in return for lowering the tariffs, something he could not do with India due to its reluctance to offer concessions on farm and dairy products. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Ultra Lux 4BHK homes at 7 Mahalaxmi from 10.81 Cr* 7 Mahalaxmi, Runwal Group Enquire Now Undo Within the govt there was clarity that it would not settle for a sub-par deal that did not provide for adequate tariff cuts in the US for Indian textiles, leather and footwear and lower-end auto parts. Trump announcement seen as bid to mount pressure on India to agree to US demands President Trump managed to get other trading partners such as EU, Japan, Britain and Vietnam to open up their markets for US goods in return for lowering tariffs, something he could not do with India due to its reluctance to offer concessions on farm and dairy products. Within govt there was clarity that it would not settle for a sub-par deal that did not provide for adequate tariff cuts in the US for Indian textiles, leather and footwear and lower-end auto parts. The Trump administration's argument that it did not have the legislative mandate to revert to reducing tariffs to zero, as is the case with most trade agreements, did not find traction with Indian negotiators, who were asked by the leadership to leverage the large and growing market offered by India. During the negotiations, India had indicated its willingness to buy larger quantities of LNG, fertiliser and defence equipment from the US, but the demands kept increasing. Trump's repeated attempt to link the Operation Sindoor ceasefire to his offer for a good trade deal only complicated matters for him. Over the last few weeks, there was also an attempt to prepare industry for possible imposition of tariffs. While talks for the proposed trade deal will continue, the announcement is seen as a move to mount pressure on India to agree to American demands. In the meantime, businesses fear that the uncertainty over the penalty will make buyers reluctant to place orders, some of which may flow to other countries. Countries like Vietnam, which have negotiated lower levies, may hurt India. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . Discover stories of India's leading eco-innovators at Ecopreneur Honours 2025
