Women's NCAA Tournament power rankings: 16 teams most likely to cut down the nets

New York Times

18-03-2025

Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Headed into the Big Dance, the seeds are set, with the full bracket unveiled last night on ESPN. Seeding reflects the full body of work from programs before the NCAA Tournament. Who are the 16 best, regardless of seeding, at the start of March Madness?
The Gamecocks have been the best team in basketball since their mid-February loss to UConn, ripping off seven straight wins, all by double digits. South Carolina outscored opponents by 154 points, made even more notable by the last six of those games coming against Top 25 teams in the NET. Junior forward Chloe Kitts averages 15.6 points and 9.2 rebounds in her last five games, finding an extra gear down the stretch. Sania Feagin and Joyce Edwards both averaged double-digit scoring in the SEC tournament. Maryam Dauda had played just five minutes in two games before her impact game against Oklahoma in the SEC semifinals. South Carolina's frontcourt rotation sets the tone and is peaking at the right time.
The Bruins closed the season strong, winning the Big Ten tournament and avenging their two losses on the season to crosstown rival USC for the tourney championship. UCLA is deep, typically trotting out a nine-player rotation, each player logging 10 or more minutes per game. They finished the season with the sixth-best offense and eighth-best defense, per CBB Analytics. UCLA is efficient, versatile and capable of winning games in multiple ways, but their dominance rests on the shoulders of Lauren Betts, the nation's best frontcourt player. Under coach Cori Close, the Bruins have advanced as far as the Elite Eight, including back-to-back Sweet 16 runs the past two seasons. But UCLA has Final Four goals and a national championship ceiling.
The Huskies are perennial Final Four attendees, and they look primed to take another run to the final weekend in 2025. Since losing to Tennessee in Knoxville on Feb. 6, UConn has won 10 straight games en route to the No. 2 seed in the Spokane 4 Region. The selection committee built the bracket with The CW-level of drama, setting up numerous potential rematches from last season's tournament and this season's nonconference marquee matchups.
UConn and USC have a rubber match waiting in the Elite Eight. The Huskies share the ball well, leading the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, per CBB Analytics. They lead the country in field goal percentage (50.8 percent) and have found more depth than last season as they've gotten healthy toward the end of the season. Paige Bueckers is the name of this team, but I look to Jana El Alfy as a player who could have a breakout March, as she'll be key in matching up with more sizable teams.
While the Trojans lost in the Big Ten championship, it's worth noting that loss came on the heels of nine straight wins, including two over UCLA, their opponent in the final game. An Elite Eight team in 2024, USC brings an additional punch in 2025, and an even more experienced version of star guard JuJu Watkins. Built on the foundation of a phenomenal defense — the nation's fourth-stingiest, per CBB Analytics — USC is elite at grinding down the game. The Trojans finished second nationally in Hakeem percentage, a metric that adds together steal and block percentages, blocking or stealing the ball on 31 percent of opposing possessions. USC excels in the margins of the game and at winning the possession battle. With a second star in the paint in Kiki Iriafen, as well as a rotation that found an extra gear down the stretch of the season (watch out for Malia Samuels!), USC looks ready for a deep run.
The Longhorns' first season in the SEC was fantastic, culminating as regular-season co-champions and a runner-up performance in the conference title game. Madison Booker, the SEC Player of the Year, is the premier point forward, capable of controlling games with her two-way prowess and shotmaking. Texas dominates the glass and the paint, leading the nation in offensive rebound rate (44.5 percent), per CBB Analytics. The only knock on the Longhorns is their floor spacing. When they face teams that can muck it up with zone, or matchup with size, Texas can struggle. Though it's worth noting that few teams can truly match up, when they do, 3-point shooting becomes a question mark, as Texas is last nationally in 3-point attempt rate (362nd).
Coach Kara Lawson's program enters the NCAA Tournament red-hot after winning the ACC tournament (knocking out Notre Dame in the process) and earning a No. 2 seed, the program's highest since 2017. The Blue Devils play with depth, and win games in multiple ways, which is part of what makes them such a fascinating team. Freshman phenom Toby Fournier was dominant in the final weeks of the regular season as she flashed her potential. Oluchi Okananwa has always provided a steady dose of frenetic energy, but she came through unexpectedly with her offensive output to win ACC tournament MVP. With upperclassmen on the wing who have performed well in big games (Ashlon Jackson and Reigan Richardson), Duke brings a plethora of weapons to the table along with a staunch defense.
The Horned Frogs put together their best season in program history and dominated the Big 12 with their offense, the nation's second-most efficient, per CBB Analytics. The two-player game between Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince has proved an unsolvable equation for many opponents, especially considering how well TCU spaces the floor around them. Only two teams hit more 3s. At the center of that is Madison Conner, who hit 45.2 percent of her triples while shooting nearly eight per game, hitting the second-most 3s in the country this season (118). This No. 2 seed is in one of the tougher regions of the bracket, and the Horned Frogs are ones to watch in the coming weeks.
The Wolfpack made a Final Four run last season and are primed to take another shot with a veteran group. Though NC State lost in the ACC championship to Duke, it has gone 9-2 since the start of February, falling to North Carolina and Duke. The Wolfpack can be susceptible to size and strong rebounding teams (eyes on the potential Sweet 16 rematch with LSU), but they have a dynamic that few teams can replicate or guard. With three prime shot-creating guards, and a senior trio that combined to play nearly 400 collegiate games, NC State is always a threat.
The Fighting Irish spent much of the season looking like the best team in the country but have hit a rough patch the past few weeks. The defense hasn't been the same as earlier in the season, struggling mightily to contain Duke and switching between man and zone to try to find a more comfortable base coverage. Notre Dame's potent offense has also slowed with a lack of ball movement, some forced shots and an overall lack of cohesion. Can this team find its groove again? It has the star power to win the national championship game, but only three No. 3 seeds have ever won a title, most recently LSU in 2023.
LSU is in a somewhat similar position to Notre Dame but for different reasons. With Flau'jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow both banged up before March Madness, the Tigers slid in seeding. When LSU is healthy, it's proven it can go toe-to-toe with the nation's top teams. Coach Kim Mulkey's team didn't earn a marquee win over a top-five team, but the Tigers' rebounding, defensive focus and grit will provide a key baseline. Mikaylah Williams' ability as a shotmaker and facilitator opens up possibilities against any opponent.
The Sooners' first SEC season was a success with a fourth-place regular-season finish and a conference tournament semifinals run. They were rewarded with a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and will face the same first-round opponent as last season: Florida Gulf Coast. Oklahoma plays fast (second nationally in pace, per CBB Analytics), shoots 3s on volume (11th most attempts per game) and have multiple offensive contributors. Though 3-point shooting and a spaced-out floor are hallmarks of Baranczyk's offense, the way Oklahoma shares the ball stands out most, with 69.7 percent of all baskets coming off assists — the nation's fifth-highest mark.
Raegan Beers is one of the best post presences in the game, which she showcased last season by shouldering Oregon State to an Elite Eight. She could help push the Sooners past the first weekend in the tournament for the first time since 2013.
The Tar Heels earned their highest seed in coach Courtney Banghart's tenure, securing a No. 3 in the Birmingham 2 Region. With the ninth-best defense, North Carolina controls the pace of play, secures the defensive glass and forces opponents into difficult and contested shots.
Maria Gakdeng and Alyssa Ustby's senior experience has proven pivotal in the interior. Lanie Grant, a reclassed freshman, has performed in big moments. Indya Nivar is the glue of this team. The biggest question I have for the Heels is Reniya Kelly's health after she suffered a lower body injury in the ACC tournament. She had taken a step as an aggressive shotmaker and creator in the back half of ACC play, leading North Carolina in scoring. That was a key development for a team that thrived on its depth and cohesion but didn't always have a go-to player.
The Rebels have steadily climbed and built itself as a strong program under coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin, earning their highest seed (No. 5) since 1994. Ole Miss had a strong case to host, but the selection committee didn't reward them. The Rebels lost three games by double digits this season while playing a grueling schedule. With the 10th-ranked defense, the Rebels swarm and smother, and freshman wing Sira Thienou has played a huge part in that, corralling 2.5 steals per game. Graduate senior Madison Scott is one of the most versatile, well-rounded, and complete players in the game who has been pivotal in Ole Miss' rise.
After back-to-back losses at the end of January, the Bears put together a commanding 11-2 stretch, including a run to the Big 12 championship game. The Bears lost three games to TCU by a combined 13 points, so despite losing, they showed they can compete with tough opponents. Forward Darianna Littlepage-Buggs' return from a knee injury that had sidelined her since Feb. 15 is a serious boost. Baylor plays an aggressive brand of defense with multiple players who make shots under pressure. The Bears have better incorporated Aaronette Vonleh in the post over the last half of Big 12 play. With the experience of last season's Sweet 16 run, and added dimensions to their style of play gained through transfers, Baylor has deep-run capability. Free-throw shooting at 67.2 percent is a point of concern.
Kentucky is such an interesting team, capable of massive highs but could reach some lows because of its lack of roster depth. That's understandable given it's Kenny Brooks' first season in Lexington, but inconsistency is dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. Guard Georgia Amoore, who came to Kentucky from Virginia Tech with Brooks, has big-game experience after the Hokies' Final Four trip. She can handle almost anything thrown at her. The Wildcats play with a ton of size, starting three forwards 6-foot-3 or taller, and they lead the nation in blocked shots.
Kentucky can get into some problems when it faces opponents with like-sized players who contain the ball and play aggressive defensively. Ole Miss, Texas and LSU forced the ball out of Amoore's hands, tightening passing windows and making life harder on Kentucky's offense. As incredible as Amoore is, she's the only Wildcats player who consistently plays point guard and creates offense. In the right matchups, the Wildcats are hard to stop and hard to score against. Against the wrong matchups, things get much harder.
Maryland and Ohio State battled it out for the third in the Big Ten, both teams taking lumps throughout the process and earning No. 4 seeds. The Terrapins won the most recent matchup, an overtime affair in the final game of the Big Ten regular season. However, the Terrapins went out during their first game of the Big Ten tournament with a rough loss to Michigan. It's worth noting the health of star guard Shyanne Sellers, who's been hampered by a knee injury much of the past month. Saylor Poffenbarger was also limited by injury at the end of the season. At its best, Maryland is a potent and versatile offensive team, like when it dismantled Duke in nonconference play. When the Terrapins play a full 40 minutes, they're dangerous.
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