IMF says July forecasts to take into account trade deals, uncertainty
The International Monetary Fund said its next global growth forecast in July will take into account both positive and negative trade developments but declined to predict a tariff-driven GDP downgrade similar to that released by the World Bank this week.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that since the last release of the Fund's World Economic Outlook in April, there have been some positive developments that could support improved economic activity, including a major tariff reduction between the US and China and an initial trade deal between the US and Britain.
"So taken together such announcements combined with the April 9 pause on the high level of tariffs, these could support activity relative to the forecast that we had in April," Kozack told a regular IMF news briefing.
"But nonetheless, we do have an outlook for the global economy that remains subject to heightened uncertainty, especially as trade negotiations continue."
The IMF also will take into account US President Donald Trump's added steel and aluminum tariffs, she said. These have now reached 50% for all exporters.
The World Bank earlier this week slashed its 2025 global growth forecast by four-tenths of a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies.
The development lender cut forecasts for nearly 70% of all economies - including the US, China and Europe, but the prior forecast came before Trump took office and imposed tariffs on nearly all trading partners.
The IMF's steep April forecast cut did take into account Trump's initial tariff assault, reducing the 2025 global growth outlook by half a percentage point from its January forecast to 2.8%, with a slower decline in inflation.
Kozack said the next IMF World Economic Outlook update will be issued toward the end of July, but did not provide a specific date.
Trump's "reciprocal" tariff pause is currently scheduled to expire on July 8, with many countries seeking to negotiate tariff-reducing deals before then.
Trump has said there could be extensions of that deadline for countries engaged in good faith negotiations with the US.
Kozack said that more recent activity indicators reflect "a complex economic landscape" with first quarter front-loading activity to beat tariffs, while there has been some diversion of trade and an unwinding of import activity in the second quarter.
There also could be more trade deals or other developments to take into account.
"So all of this creates kind of a complicated picture for us, with some upside risk, some other developments, and we'll take all of these developments together into account as we update our forecast," Kozack said.
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