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RNZ News
21 minutes ago
- RNZ News
How does the Reserve Bank actually set the OCR?
The official cash rate is now set by a monetary policy committee. Photo: RNZ The Reserve Bank will update the official cash rate (OCR) on Wednesday. But have you ever wondered how it goes about making the decision? John McDermott is now executive director of Motu Economic and Public Policy Service but was previously assistant governor and head of economics at the Reserve Bank. He spoke to RNZ this week about how the process works. The OCR is now set by a monetary policy committee, made up of three members of the Reserve Bank's staff - current governor Christian Hawkesby, assistant governor Karen Silk and chief economist Paul Conway. They are joined by external members professor Bob Buckle, economist Carl Hansen and professor Prasanna Gai. McDermott said the way the OCR was set had changed a little with the introduction of the formal committee. It was introduced in 2018, the year before McDermott left the bank. Before that, the Reserve Bank governor was the sole decision maker. Now, the committee aims for a consensus decision but sometimes goes to a vote. But McDermott said the overall approach would be broadly the same. He said there would be three key stages: Looking at what was happening overseas, assessing the situation in New Zealand and thinking about how the decision could be communicated with the right impact. He said the process would usually take about a week. "Staff will have been working on it for a lot longer than that. They'll put together a whole bunch of information on it for the committee to digest." There would normally be two days of "information pooling" meetings, and two days of deliberation meetings, with decision meetings after the deliberation meeting, according to the committee handbook. McDermott said attention would turn first to what was happening in the rest of the world. "What are the key conditions with our trading partners? How's that affecting New Zealand? Probably a lot of detail on the US, a lot of detail on China … probably an equal amount of detail on Australia." He said the committee would then look at financial markets. "Bond markets, equity markets, how does that flow over to New Zealand's access to capital? "It's important to get that setting, once that's established it'll be looking at New Zealand in detail." He said the second day of deliberations would look at recent data. "The minutiae of the data. What's going on with concrete sales or electronic car transactions … hopefully there will be some discussion of what's going on with businesses." He said that would usually involve looking at the results of interviews with various businesses about what they were experiencing. "When you look at the political elements, does that match with what businesses are telling you?" He said the committee would also need to look at banks' willingness to lend and the ability of firms to access capital. "Once you've gone though that it's all about what's happened and what's the environment when we're in. What does that mean for the future? How do you project forward given this is what's happening? What do we expect for inflation output and interest rates …. That will be the core element of the forecasts." He said different members of the committee would bring different experience and judgment, and opinions on what elements should be given more weight. Reserve Bank governor Christian Hawkesby. Photo: "After that process the committee is probably asking the staff, whom they've been leaning on heavily during the week, to not be there. The committee itself will ask what do we think about that, what are the risks? This is what the forecast looks like, this is the decision we think kind of makes sense." He said the committee would consider what the markets would do in response to a decision, and whether they would be shocked by anything that was decided. "What will that do to the prices that matter? And in interest rates, are we going to get the kind of reaction we want? "You should see the results of that in the press conference - this is what we did, this is why we did it ... trying to shape expectations and manage how that is delivered to the country." He said markets had sometimes "got it wrong" and priced in things that the Reserve Bank did not expect to happen. In that case, it would need to clarify the way it saw things. "But by the same token, if you think the financial markets have got it right and you want to validate those expectations you have to be careful not to say something stupid where the markets misunderstand you … you don't want to shock the markets by accident." The handbook said the decision about the appropriate monetary policy settings would be made the morning of the release so that there was less risk of sensitive information being leaked. McDermott said the committee would have to decide which data it needed to pay attention to and what it could set aside as not relevant. If data was volatile, it could sometimes set it aside and decide to come back to it for the next update. Something like a movement in the oil price would have an impact in the short term but then prove immaterial in the medium term. The bank would need to communicate that price increases as a result of something like an oil spike were not going to persist, he said. "With the increase in goods and services tax, prices will go up but they'll go up one time - that's not inflation - so we're going to look through that. But every time the bank or the monetary committee looks through something, it is really important that it explains that it is looking through something." McDermott said the geopolitical environment made rate setting hard at the moment. "There's tariffs that are playing out. What are they doing? Who's paying them? How are they affecting supply chains? Are they going to be the same next week as this week? There's a lot of noise and so you've got to be very disciplined in how you work through that." He said it was also important to be upfront when a judgment was wrong. "It's really important that central banks, when they've made a mistake, just front up and say 'look we made this judgment. We were clear on the judgment we made and it hasn't panned out that way so we're changing how we view things'. I think there's been a reluctance to do that in recent times … and I think that's a shame because it really is important." The Reserve Bank said, when the economic outlook could be at a turning point, the committee might use a "hawks and doves" exercise. "One MPC adviser would play the role of the 'Hawk', presenting all analysis that would support contractionary monetary policy, and then another would play the role of the 'Dove', presenting all analysis that would support expansionary monetary policy. This exercise aims to challenge the status quo and encourage wider deliberations." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

RNZ News
21 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Electricity Authority not a 'chocolate teapot', Shane Jones says
Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii The Electricity Authority has proven itself not to be a "chocolate teapot", the associate energy minister says. In a bid to make energy more affordable, the authority will require generators to offer the same price to all retailers - and ban the bigger power companies from giving themselves discounts . The government said the change would increase competition, giving consumers more choices . Associate energy minister Shane Jones - who has previously been heavily critical of the authority and has threatened to end it unless it flexed its authority - was pleased. "The EA (Electricity Authority) have proved that they're not totally a chocolate teapot. Anything that shrinks the cost of energy and secures greater security, I think Kiwis should be happy." Jones accused big electricity companies of currently operating as if they had more power than Cabinet. He said the change was a surgical instrument - and in future he would like to see a sharper instrument taken to the gentailers' (companies that are both generators and retailers) corporate makeup. Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Photo: RNZ / Marika Khabazi Meanwhile, Labour was also backing the move to level the playing field between big power companies and smaller outlets. Leader Chris Hipkins said he wanted to see what kind of enforcement there would be behind the new rule. "I think there probably needs to be more teeth behind it, and I think that they actually need to go further than that - but it is a good start." The change came out of the Energy Competition task force, which was set up last August in response to the winter power crisis . Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

RNZ News
21 minutes ago
- RNZ News
Ministry of Health forced to release documents showing alcohol lobby influence
The spirits industry says it supports targeted programmes but believes the draft Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder strategy is too broad. File photo Photo: By Angie Garrett from Ridgely, USA [CC BY 2.0 ( via Wikimedia Commons Alcohol lobbyists pushed health officials not to raise taxes, curb supply or cut industry sponsorship of sport - despite those measures being endorsed by the World Health Organisation as among the most effective ways to reduce alcohol harm. The tactics are laid bare in documents the Ministry of Health tried to keep secret, only releasing them after RNZ appealed to the Ombudsman. They also show industry efforts to shape a government strategy to combat Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD). Officials handed the draft FASD plan to alcohol companies for feedback - while keeping it from the public. Spirits New Zealand dismissed estimates that up to 3000 babies are born with the disorder each year as "not credible" and attacked a taxpayer-funded ad campaign from 2019, even though it won five awards. Health Coalition Aotearoa said the industry should have no role in shaping alcohol policy. But the ministry's deputy director general Andrew Old defended its engagement, insisting companies had no special access. "They certainly haven't had any particular special treatment or back door into the ministry. It's been a deliberate, structured approach. They've had quarterly meetings with the team," Old said. "I can absolutely and categorically say that there is no veto power. So if the industry says 'we don't want to see this', that has no bearing on the outcome. It is a view that is considered alongside a range of other views." Old accepted the alcohol industry was motivated by profit. "I also would hope that, in doing that, they don't want to be doing harm," he said. "There's clearly a conflict. But, to my mind, it's not an irreconcilable conflict that would mean that we should just never talk to them." Read more: Alcohol lobbyists were also given a draft investment strategy on how to spend the Alcohol Levy, a ring-fenced fund of $16.6 million for alcohol harm reduction measures. The documents include an email from Spirits NZ to the MOH, saying there was intense interest in the Alcohol Levy, which is funded from a small tax on sales - equivalent to less than one cent on a standard can of beer. "My members with global links are seeking advice from their HQ's from London to Louisville, Kentucky - yes, this is how important this matter is to them," the lobbyist says, in a November 2024 email to the MOH. The documents show industry concern the Alcohol Levy would be spent on programmes based on the WHO's SAFER strategy, which says that, globally, a person dies every ten seconds due to alcohol related causes. "The WHO SAFER strategies include measures like restricting availability and raising excise taxes," a submission from the Brewers Association says. "These broad based initiatives are generally seen as reducing consumption overall and not targeting harmful consumption." The Brewers Association said there was an "overemphasis on restrictions" in the WHO guidelines. "Metrics tied to SAFER principles could incentivise programmes that focus excessively on punitive measures, such as limiting availability and marketing, rather than collaborative, education-based harm reduction approaches." The Brewers Association also warned against using the Alcohol Levy to fund "controversial" programmes it believes won't reduce harmful consumption. "Examples raised in our meeting included research with little application actions in the outcomes, funding of legal support for opposition of licences and replacing sponsorship arrangements in sport organisations with funds from the levy." The documents, which the MOH tried to withhold using a section of the OIA designed to protect advice between Ministers and officials until overruled by the Ombudsman, also include industry critique of the FASD strategy. Spirits New Zealand, which represents the likes of Asahi, Bacardi, Diageo, Lion, Moet-Hennessy and Pernod Ricard, warned against launching action on FASD without knowing what the prevalence was. It took issue with estimates, based on international studies and expert opinion, that 3-5 percent of babies - 1800 to 3000 every year - are born with FASD. "This is simply not credible and is similar to the situation that existed when the last plan was developed in 2016," the lobbyists say. "We cannot see how any FASD-prevention plan can be started without good data as a baseline. We would ask that the Public Health Agency give assurances that work on measurement frameworks occurs prior to other plan elements being launched." Leigh Henderson, chair of the advocacy group FASD-CAN, was concerned the alcohol industry doubted the prevalence of FASD. "Are they saying, 'Okay, it's all right for 500 babies to be born, but not 1800," she asked. "We know it's not 100 percent preventable, but to try and downplay it in that way is just callous and not recognising the level of the problem." In a statement chief executive Robert Brewer said Spirits NZ "categorically denies" downplaying the extent of FASD. "The government can't fix a problem if it doesn't know its true extent, level of occurrence, who is affected and why and to do this you need good data. This is basic public policy." Henderson said the motivation of the industry was clear, given its opposition during the 20 year battle to get mandatory pregnancy warning labels on alcohol. The spirits industry says it supports targeted programmes but believes the draft FASD strategy is too broad. It raised the ad campaign 'Pre-Testie Bestie' as an example, saying its "ultimate audience seemed to be any woman of child-bearing age who may or may not be having sex and who may or may not be pregnant". It said that was "an impossible audience to communicate with" as the campaign, funded by the Health Promotion Agency (HPA), was trying to be both targeted and national. But the HPA (now part of Health New Zealand) said in its 2019 Annual Report that 38 percent of women aged 18 to 30 saw the campaign and 70 percent of them got the key message: "Don't drink if you are or might be pregnant". The Pre-Testie Bestie ad campaign won five Axis Awards. The spirits industry also took issue with the draft FASD strategy saying New Zealand is a country where "alcohol is highly accessible, use is normalised," and there are high rates of hazardous drinking. Brewer said hazardous drinking had declined over the last four years in New Zealand to just 16 percent of adults.