Tariff tally

Politico

21-05-2025

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In today's edition:
→ Canadian importers are still paying tariffs.
→ G7 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Banff.
→ Plus, a little spilled tea on the royal visit to Ottawa.
Trade war
TARIFFS: STILL A THING — A major adjustment to retaliatory tariffs announced in the middle of an election campaign fought over DONALD TRUMP's trade war was bound to turn some heads.
— Origin story: A report from Oxford Economics created a hubbub by claiming federal relief announced in April reduced the impact of tariffs on U.S.-sourced goods to 'nearly zero.' Bloomberg ran with the story, which spread quickly.
— Political fallout: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE recently insisted in a widely viewed X post that PM MARK CARNEY 'quietly dropped' tariffs 'without telling anyone.'
On April 16, Carney's Cabinet did approve six-month tariff relief for goods 'used in Canadian manufacturing, processing and food and beverage packaging, and for those used to support public health, health care, public safety, and national security objectives.' Automakers also scored limited exemptions.
Eventually, those measures were published in the Canada Gazette on May 7.
The government announced it all publicly — though admittedly tucked deep into federal websites untrawled by most Canadians.
— The official word: In response to the swirl of claims, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE insisted that retaliatory tariffs on 70 percent of end-use goods are still in place. The total revenue haul for those tariffs remains unclear.
— On the ground: But Canadian importers are still paying tariffs. Just ask them — or, say, a lawyer who helps them keep up with all the uncertainty.
Here's WILLIAM PELLERIN, a partner in McMillan's international trade group:
'The assertion that Canada's retaliatory tariffs have 'nearly zero' impact does not reflect the experience of many of our clients, who continue to incur substantial tariff costs, with real-world impacts on prices, customer relationships, jobs and investments,' Pellerin told us.
→ Tariffs are still in effect, Pellerin said, on nearly all HVAC equipment and hot-water tanks; plumbing equipment and fixtures; sinks and showers; clothing and apparel; tires for off-road equipment (used in mining and industrial vehicles); hardwood and other wood products; overhead transmission lines; and nearly all steel and aluminum products.
Pellerin served up a hypothetical: 'Picture a company building a factory here in Canada: just about any U.S.-origin material sourced to build that facility (including equipment purchased, designed and engineered long before President Trump was elected, but being delivered now), would be subject to tariffs.'
— Budget lines: The Liberal platform booked C$20 billion in tariff revenue in 2025-26 — a key piece of the fiscal picture the party pitched on the campaign trail. It's unclear where that revenue expectation will end up by the time Champagne unveils his first budget this fall.
→ All we know for now: The final tally will be greater than zero.
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister MARK CARNEY will hold a media availability at 6 p.m. following his 'Cabinet Policy Forum.'
DULY NOTED
— The Canadian Global Affairs Institute hosts Trade Conference 2025 in Ottawa. We're watching a morning panel devoted to 'renegotiating CUSMA from a place of strength.'
— ANDREW COYNE launches his new book, 'The Crisis of Canadian Democracy,' at the Métropolitain at 7 p.m.
DRIVING THE DAY
G7 FINANCE — This morning in Banff, Finance Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM will convene their G7 counterparts for eight closed-door sessions on the global economy.
The weight of the world awaits.
— Sanctions on Russia: Champagne got the ball rolling Tuesday evening with a joint presser alongside Ukraine Finance Minister SERGII MARCHENKO.
Earlier, finance department officials who briefed journalists said mobilizing the private sector to help Ukraine's reconstruction will be discussed today at a separate panel.
— U.S. participation: Expect Champagne to have a pull aside with U.S. Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT — just don't expect any tariff announcements, POLITICO's VICTORIA GUIDA reports.
→ Diplomatic language: 'There was always tension around tariffs, as you would expect. But at the same time, there's a lot we can achieve together,' Champagne said Tuesday evening.
— Federal budget: Champagne was pressed on what would be in his first budget, expected in the fall — and why he's waiting so long to unveil a fiscal plan.
'There's the NATO summit that is going to come in June that's going to have an impact on defense investments. There's going to be the review of spending and efficiency of the Canadian government,' Champagne said. 'We'll have a better sense of the global macroeconomic picture by then.'
— From the officials: None of the weighty-sounding titles of today's sessions contain the words 'tariff' or 'China' or 'sanctions,' though all of that will be discussed.
An opening discussion will cover the 'global economy,' followed by a panel on 'economic resilience and security,' and others on cybersecurity and artificial intelligence.
→ Tariffs are not officially on the agenda. They will be 'embedded' in a session where there's 'hope' the G7 will express a firm shared belief in the importance of a well functioning international trade investment system, said an official.
→ China is part of a session on 'conflict, security and resilience.' Ministers will discuss non-market policies and practices, said a Canadian official. They'll be looking to 'level the playing field' for key sectors that face unfair competition. Full stop.
TALK OF THE TOWN
SOVEREIGNTY FLEX — Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is set to put on a spectacle when KING CHARLES III and QUEEN CAMILLA arrive in Ottawa.
'This is a historic honor which matches the weight of our times,' Carney said when he first announced that he'd invited the king to deliver the throne speech on May 27.
The two-day visit will demonstrate that Canada is a sovereign nation, Heritage officials said Wednesday in a media briefing. Since returning to the White House, DONALD TRUMP has made repeated references to Canada becoming the 51st state.
Next week's ceremony is likely to catch the attention of the U.S. president, who is known for his love of pomp and grandeur and for having an affinity for the royals. Even the U.K. has rolled out the king to butter up Trump.
— Details, details: When the royals land in Ottawa, Camilla will be presented with a bouquet of red and white roses.
And a Canadian Armed Forces band will play as the royals are greeted by 25 members of the Royal Canadian Dragoons, the senior armoured regiment of the Canadian Army that boasts the king as colonel-in-chief.
The king will receive full military honors, and Camilla will be sworn in as a member of the Privy Council — giving her authority to advise the king in his role as Canada's monarch.
— Public displays of affection: Canadians will have several opportunities to see the royals in action. The king is scheduled to drop the puck in a street hockey game at Lansdowne Park's Aberdeen Plaza on Monday.
On Tuesday, the royals will parade down Wellington Street in Canada's state landau, drawn by horses of the RCMP's Musical Ride. They'll be escorted by 28 RCMP — 14 in the front, 14 in the back.
The official visit will close at the National War Memorial, a monument that was dedicated in 1939 by the king's grandfather, KING GEORGE VI. A final royal salute and a flypast by the Royal Canadian Air Force will cap the visit.
Public events are here.
— VIP: 470 people have been invited to the Senate chamber to watch the speech — a guest list that includes former governors general, prime ministers, Supreme Court justices and lieutenant governors.
— Awkward: The king will later meet with 50 MPs in the Senate.
Since Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is not an MP, his role that day is unclear. The Conservative Party has not replied to our request for details.
Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is expected to boycott the throne speech, saying he will read it instead. The separatist party opposes the monarchy.
— Travel buddies: The king and queen will be accompanied by two officers of the British royal household, plus a Canadian doctor — in case of an emergency.
MORNING MUST-CLICKS
— The Canadian Press reports: Western premiers meet in Yellowknife to talk trade, energy and Arctic security.
— KARL SALGO, executive adviser at the Ottawa-based Institute on Governance, considers the context of the PM's promised program review.
— On the latest 'Alberta Unbound' pod, Sen. PAULA SIMONS breaks down the federal election results — and the apparent uptick in separatist sentiment — with SHANNON PHILLIPS, KEN BOESSENKOOL and ANNE MCLELLAN.
— Three books on JOE BIDEN's presidency jointly paint a devastating portrait of an ailing, geriatric leader surrounded by mendacious aides and grasping family members, JAMES KIRCHICK writes in POLITICO Magazine.
— PM Carney may be banking on an upswell of patriotism to bolster support for large infrastructure projects — but it won't be easy, JACOB KATES ROSE writes at The Bell.
— Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU lashed out at the leaders of France, the U.K. and Canada after they threatened 'targeted sanctions' over Israel's renewed military offensive in Gaza. POLITICO's SEB STARCEVIC has the latest.
PROZONE
Check out our latest Pro PM Canada subscriber newsletter.
Other headlines for Pro subscribers:
— Greens sue to block Trump approval for deepwater LNG project.
— Germany's Pistorius signals openness to 5 percent defense spending.
— France barred Telegram founder Pavel Durov from traveling to US.
— CalRecycle loosens plastic waste reduction rules.
— Brussels wants AI chips made in Europe, tech chief says.
PLAYBOOKERS
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. FABIAN MANNING and former Premier KATHLEEN WYNNE.
Also celebrating: Cartoonist GUY BADEAUX, historian JACK GRANATSTEIN, Quebec politician ÉRIC CAIRE (60!), StrategyCorp's JOANNE CHIANELLO and Earnscliffe consultant TOM CHAN.
HBD+1 to KATIE DAVEY, chief of staff to New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT.
Noted: Canada Post received a strike notice Monday from the union that represents more than 55,000 postal workers. Operations are set to shut down by the end of the week. From CBC News this morning: Canada Post is in trouble.
Year-over-year inflation rose 1.7 percent in April, Statistics Canada reported.
The Liberal Party announced that its next national convention will go down in Montreal on April 9-11, 2026.
Spotted: KING CHARLES III and QUEEN CAMILLA, dropping into Canada House in London on Tuesday to meet with High Commissioner RALPH GOODALE … Conservative MP LAILA GOODRIDGE, flying to Ottawa for the first time as a family of four.
Foreign Affairs Minister ANITA ANAND exchanging gifts with U.S. ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA.
Movers and shakers: PIERRE POILIEVRE unveiled a Leader's Economic Growth Council headed up by Calgary MP GREG MCLEAN and co-chaired by Northern Ontario MP GAÉTAN MALETTE and former Nova Scotia MP RICK PERKINS.
The Pearson Centre announced new board members: MICHAEL PEARSON, ZITA ASTRAVAS, KATE DALGLEISH, Chief JEFFREY COPENACE, MICHAEL HATCH and DON ABELSON. (The institute is gearing up for its June 11 laureate dinner that honors former Cabmin IRWIN COTLER.)
MIKE MCNAIR is president and CEO of the brand-new Arctic Economic Development Corporation. The goal: 'Activate investment, infrastructure and sovereignty in Canada's North.'
HAMISH WRIGHT starts a new gig as executive director of transportation and labor policy in Premier DOUG FORD's office.
TRIVIA
Tuesday's answer: In the 1963 federal election, a virtual tie in the Québec riding of Pontiac—Témiscamingue was decided by the returning officer.
Props to MAIA EASTMAN, JOHN PEPPER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, KOBY GOTTLIEB, MALCOLM MCKAY and BOB GORDON.
Wednesday's question: What brought some 100,000 people to the intersection of Elgin and Wellington streets on this date in 1939?
Answers to [e-mail]
Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and MICKEY DJURIC.