National Hurricane Center issues first daily tropical outlook of the season. Are you ready?

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15-05-2025

The National Hurricane Center issued its first daily tropical outlook of the 2025 hurricane season this morning, Thursday, May 15, and the news is good: "Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next seven days."
It's actually the second tropical outlook of the season, though, even if we're not yet in the official season.
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The agency issued a tropical outlook March 17, highlighting an area showing some potential of development well east of Florida. The non-tropical area of low pressure didn't bring any subsequent advisories.
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What's different about May 15 is that the National Hurricane Center will issue tropical outlooks twice a day until the 2025 hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
If a system strengthens into a named storm — or if an unnamed storm shows signs of strengthening and impacting the coast — regular advisories will be issued.
Look for daily stories from USA TODAY Network-Florida on conditions in the tropics using those outlooks and advisories, along with forecasts from other hurricane experts, including AccuWeather, Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut and Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University.
The first named storm of the season will be Andrea.
Here's the first of the National Hurricane Center's daily outlooks as of 8 a.m., May 15.
The National Hurricane Center didn't highlight any tropical waves in the Atlantic basin May 15.
The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump's order.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
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Tropical outlooks are issued every day by the National Hurricane Center starting May 15 through Nov. 30.
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A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
Contained in the outlook are the probabilities the area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days:
A low probability of development ranges from 0-30% (designated in yellow)
A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60% (designated in orange)
A high probability of development ranges from 70-100% (designated in red)
"The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said.
The colored, hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
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The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
"This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions."
Predictions released as of May 13 predict an above-normal number of named tropical systems, ranging from:
Named storms: 13-21
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
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Named storms: 14
Hurricanes: 7
Major hurricanes: 3
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropics watch: NHC issues 1st daily tropical outlook hurricane season