EU may have just deepened its reliance on the US, former Chinese envoy says
Shi Mingde, who served as China's ambassador to Germany from 2012 to 2019, gave his assessment of Sunday's transatlantic agreement to academics and reporters at an event in Beijing on Tuesday to mark 50 years of China-EU relations.
The deal came hard on the heels of last Thursday's one-day EU-China summit in the Chinese capital, which also marked the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the 27-member bloc.
While Beijing has supported Europe's push for strategic autonomy, it has firmly rejected its de-risking policy – to reduce the EU's reliance on China – as a veiled attempt to contain Chinese growth, particularly in technology and the economy.
'The Europeans have proposed to reduce reliance to mitigate risk, but this reasoning is flawed,' Shi said.
'They claim that greater reliance leads to greater risk, yet their dependence on the United States remains even stronger – both in terms of security and economics – and the recent deal ... further reinforces the EU's dependence on the US in terms of security and the economy.
'So, will this agreement ultimately lead to greater strategic autonomy for Europe? Not yet.'
Touted by US President Donald Trump as 'the biggest deal ever made', the agreement puts a 15 per cent tariff on most European imports to the United States, while the average rate on goods in the other direction will drop below one per cent, according to the White House.
The EU has also agreed to buy US$750 billion in American energy and make US$600 billion in new investment in the United States – all by 2028.
There have been concerns that a transatlantic agreement may increase Trump's leverage in the continuing trade talks with Beijing while allowing the US and the EU to refocus on their alignment in the competition with China.
On Monday, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said that as part of the deal, Washington and Brussels would develop a metals alliance to mitigate the impact of subsidised Chinese products – notably 'steel, aluminium, copper and the derivatives' – on global markets.
Without going into the agreement's details, Shi said that while Beijing's policy with the bloc had been 'consistent' and 'cooperative', it was the EU's own job to shape its future with major powers like the US, China and Russia.
How Sino-EU relations develop would depend on how the bloc definef China, 'but the premise is how the EU defines itself in a turbulent world', he said.
'[Would Brussels really] want a full-scale confrontation with Russia, comprehensive suppression by the US ... and an increasingly fractious relationship with China?'
Despite the frictions in the relationship, China has positioned itself as a partner to Europe and has been encouraging the European Union to do more to assert its strategic autonomy.
At last week's summit, expected to set the tone for China-EU relations, President Xi Jinping urged his visitors – European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and the president of the European Council Antonio Costa – to make 'the right strategic choice'.
Speaking before Shi at the same event, Di Dongsheng, professor and associate dean of the Renmin University of China's school of international studies, observed that the EU's policy on China had been largely influenced by Washington rather than Beijing.
The results of a 2023 study by his team at Renmin University suggested there was a risk that the EU might use China as leverage if Brussels was pressed hard by the US, he said.
The researchers analysed more than 200 million recorded events – including diplomatic engagement and conflicts – related to relations between China, the US and Washington's allies since 2009, when former president Barack Obama took office.
'Our research shows Europe's China policy isn't shaped by Beijing's actions at all – whether we're positive or negative makes no difference in the EU's attitude on China,' Di said.
'The real decider is America's stance towards China and, to a lesser extent, the United States' attitude towards the EU.
'In this sense, when the Europeans talk about cutting dependence on China, in the economy and supply chains, I think they should also be pursuing real political and strategic autonomy.' - South China Morning Post
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