July 4th forecast: Will you need sunglasses or a raincoat?
In the several days leading up to the Fourth of July, expect very warm to hot conditions in much of the West, typical summer warmth from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms from New Mexico to the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida.
"Portions of the Midwest, Southeast and interior Southwest stand the most likely chance for some disruptive downpours and potent thunderstorm activity on Friday, July 4," AccuWeather's Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
An area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms is forecast to evolve from the northeastern Gulf coast to the southern Atlantic coast later in June and linger through the first part of July. It is possible this broad area of low pressure could organize into one or more tropical rainstorms during this time.
Those heading to the beaches from northern Florida and the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles to the coastal Carolinas may experience rough surf conditions and perhaps stiff winds should a tropical depression or storm try to develop.
Around the July 4th holiday, in areas farther to the northwest, "we expect one or more complexes of thunderstorms to develop over the northern and central Plains and wander into the Midwest," Pastelok said. "Exactly where these storms wander will determine which areas could receive heavy rain and severe weather." Outside of the thunderstorms, the weather may be just fine for outdoor plans most of the day on Friday.
Thunderstorms will be possible for at least part of the day in Minneapolis, Chicago, Indianapolis, St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri. It is possible that clouds and downpours could affect outdoor activities in some of these major metro areas and others in the region.
Conditions in much of the Northeast will be far cooler than during this week's heat wave. In fact, it could be very comfortable, provided high pressure settles slowly over the region rather than slipping off the Atlantic coast. Humidity levels are likely to be lower than July standards, far lower in most areas compared to the swelter of late.
Some showers are likely to skirt northern New England and upstate New York, but the day and evening of July 4 are likely to be free of rain in the zone from Boston to New York City and Washington, D.C., which should be good news for some of the largest fireworks displays in the nation. Folks heading to Coney Island, New York, will probably need sunglasses.
Another active zone for thunderstorms is likely to be New Mexico, western Texas, part of Colorado and eastern Arizona as the North American monsoon continues to unfold. Most of the thunderstorm activity on Independence Day will tend to occur from mid-afternoon to mid-evening, but there can be some exceptions. Aside from the threat of lightning strikes for those caught outdoors as storms build during the midday hours, flash flooding will remain a concern.
Elsewhere, showers will dampen western Washington and northwestern Oregon. While it will rain for only a small part of July 4, it could shower in the morning just as well as in the afternoon or evening.Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+
"If it's heat you want, the best bets with sunglasses needed, will be the interior West, portions of the Plains and the interior Southeast on Independence Day," Pastelok explained. Highs will be well into the 90s to the low 100s over the deserts of the Southwest, while highs mainly in the upper 80s to the mid-90s are forecast for much of the Plains and interior Southeast, away from the stormy coastal areas.
In general, the West will be best overall for the Fourth of July, with only a few pockets where rain is likely to fall. However, folks are reminded to check with local laws and restrictions before setting off any backyard fireworks. Local dry conditions may prevent fireworks altogether.
For those heading to the beach, the Fourth of July often brings some chilly surf, especially in New England, the upper mid-Atlantic and much of the Pacific Coast.
Surf temperatures typically range from the upper 40s to the low 60s in New England and along much of the Pacific coast.
Waters are generally warm enough and safe for swimming along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts, with widespread surf temperatures in the 80s.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
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