IMF lifts 2025 GDP emerging economies' outlook on improved China view
In an update published on Tuesday to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also nudged its 2026 economic growth forecast for emerging economies up to 4.0% from 3.9%.
China received the largest upgrade with the IMF predicting the world's number two economy would expand 4.8% this year compared with a previous forecast for 4.0%.
"This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in U.S.–China tariffs," the IMF said, adding that the latest forecasts assumed the U.S. effective tariff rate at 17.3% rather than the 24.4%, which formed the basis of its calculations in April.
The IMF also noted that for all countries "pauses on higher tariffs are assumed to remain in place past their expiration dates and higher rates are assumed not to take effect". China posted 5.2% growth in the second quarter, but cracks are showing in the export-led economy at the center of the trade war.
Beijing is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with Washington, after reaching preliminary deals in May and June. Many countries will see higher duties starting later this week. Negotiations continue Tuesday in Stockholm.
Risks for the outlook are tilted downward, the IMF said, given the "precarious equilibrium of trade policy stances assumed in the baseline." The IMF said Brazil would further decelerate if additional U.S. tariffs were imposed. Growth in Latin America's largest economy is seen at 2.3% this year from 3.4% in 2024. The upgrade for emerging markets reflects a more optimistic outlook globally by the IMF, which nudged global GDP growth forecast up to 3.0% for 2025 and to 3.1% in 2026. However, those levels still mark a downgrade on the Fund's projections made in January.
While most individual economies received upgrades, Russia and South Korea were the exceptions.
Russia's economy is now seen expanding 0.9% this year, from a previous view of 1.5% growth. South Korea's new 0.8% GDP growth forecast for 2025 compares with 1.0% previously.
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