Tropical Storm Dexter Update: Spaghetti Models Show Potential Florida Path
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Forecast models show possible paths for a disturbance near Florida that could develop into Tropical Storm Dexter this week.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems: Andrea, Barry and Chantal.
Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina this month, with up to nine inches of rain falling within 24 hours in some parts of the state.
The first spaghetti plots are out for 93L for what would be Tropical Storm Dexter. Landfall could happen as early as 72 hours from now. The faster track would allow less time for rapid intensification. The faster the better in this scenario. I will begin live tropical updates… pic.twitter.com/jELt5AsSue — Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 15, 2025
What To Know
Spaghetti models shared on social media suggested a westward trajectory across Florida, then a shift northward into the Gulf states, with the system potentially reaching as far north as Tennessee and Kentucky.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), recent satellite-based wind data suggested that the low-pressure system just off Florida's east coast is gradually becoming more organized. However, its associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.
"This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, then reach the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week," the NHC said in an update Tuesday morning. "Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf."
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
National Hurricane Center
The NHC said that regardless of development, the system could bring heavy rainfall and flash-flooding to Florida and parts of the north-central Gulf Coast this week.
The agency reported a 40 percent, or "medium," chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours.
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek that AccuWeather was concerned about the potential for tropical development possibly as early as Tuesday or Wednesday after the system crosses the Florida peninsula and moves westward.
"We then expect the system to approach the central Gulf Coast later this week, perhaps sometime on Thursday, as a tropical depression or potentially a tropical storm. The exact wind intensity would depend on its exact track across the [Gulf of America, GOA], if it stays out over the open waters of the central GOA or if it hugs the coast. If it hugs the coast, that could limit its potential to intensify due to interaction with land."
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X, Monday: "While in the Gulf, track is key for what this becomes or doesn't become. For example, if it rides more north along the Gulf Coast, it would spend less time over water and would be weaker...potentially not even developing. If it heads more south, it would spend more time over warm water and become stronger...making landfall also more west from Alabama to Louisiana. To what intensity? Too early to tell, let's see what the system looks like after it leaves Florida."
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: "In terms of expected rainfall, there could be a wide swath of rainfall of 4-8 inches across central Florida over the next few days. This heavy rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding. As it moves into Louisiana later this week, heavy rain will spread inland across the northern Gulf Coast. A wide swath of 1-2 inches could extend from far eastern Texas through the Florida Panhandle. Along the central Gulf Coast in southern MS and southeast LA, 4-8 inches of rain will fall."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will keep tracking the system and share new information as it evolves.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
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