Tropical Storm Dexter Update: Spaghetti Models Show Potential Florida Path
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
Forecast models show possible paths for a disturbance near Florida that could develop into Tropical Storm Dexter this week.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems: Andrea, Barry and Chantal.
Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina this month, with up to nine inches of rain falling within 24 hours in some parts of the state.
The first spaghetti plots are out for 93L for what would be Tropical Storm Dexter. Landfall could happen as early as 72 hours from now. The faster track would allow less time for rapid intensification. The faster the better in this scenario. I will begin live tropical updates… pic.twitter.com/jELt5AsSue — Reed Timmer, PhD (@ReedTimmerUSA) July 15, 2025
What To Know
Spaghetti models shared on social media suggested a westward trajectory across Florida, then a shift northward into the Gulf states, with the system potentially reaching as far north as Tennessee and Kentucky.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), recent satellite-based wind data suggested that the low-pressure system just off Florida's east coast is gradually becoming more organized. However, its associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized.
"This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, then reach the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week," the NHC said in an update Tuesday morning. "Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf."
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
This NHC map highlights the area in question.
National Hurricane Center
The NHC said that regardless of development, the system could bring heavy rainfall and flash-flooding to Florida and parts of the north-central Gulf Coast this week.
The agency reported a 40 percent, or "medium," chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours.
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek that AccuWeather was concerned about the potential for tropical development possibly as early as Tuesday or Wednesday after the system crosses the Florida peninsula and moves westward.
"We then expect the system to approach the central Gulf Coast later this week, perhaps sometime on Thursday, as a tropical depression or potentially a tropical storm. The exact wind intensity would depend on its exact track across the [Gulf of America, GOA], if it stays out over the open waters of the central GOA or if it hugs the coast. If it hugs the coast, that could limit its potential to intensify due to interaction with land."
What People Are Saying
Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X, Monday: "While in the Gulf, track is key for what this becomes or doesn't become. For example, if it rides more north along the Gulf Coast, it would spend less time over water and would be weaker...potentially not even developing. If it heads more south, it would spend more time over warm water and become stronger...making landfall also more west from Alabama to Louisiana. To what intensity? Too early to tell, let's see what the system looks like after it leaves Florida."
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek: "In terms of expected rainfall, there could be a wide swath of rainfall of 4-8 inches across central Florida over the next few days. This heavy rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding. As it moves into Louisiana later this week, heavy rain will spread inland across the northern Gulf Coast. A wide swath of 1-2 inches could extend from far eastern Texas through the Florida Panhandle. Along the central Gulf Coast in southern MS and southeast LA, 4-8 inches of rain will fall."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will keep tracking the system and share new information as it evolves.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
4 hours ago
- New York Post
NYC air quality plummets as Canadian wildfire smoke invades US — and more bad air is on the way
New Yorkers were hit with a second day of hazy weather and bad air on Sunday — and more is on the way for this coming week, forecasters warned. The culprit is Canadian wildfires — with more than 550 active blazes in the province of Manitoba alone, and 15 million acres have already been burned across the country. Some of that smoke is starting to drift over the Northeastern US. The Air Quality Index (AQI) reached reached warning levels on Sunday — hanging out consistently above 100 — meaning the elderly, people with respiratory problems and other vulnerable groups should limit time the outdoors. 3 A haze hung over the Big Apple on Sunday. Luiz C. Ribeiro for New York Post Experts have said that while conditions may improve later on Sunday, the coming days could bring even more problems — especially as the heat becomes oppressive. 'While it may improve a little bit later on today or tonight, I think the air quality could go back down again beginning Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday,' AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tom Kines told The Post. He added: 'The big thing is if you've got health issues that could be affected by the poor air quality, like asthma or other respiratory issues, then definitely take it easy.' With a heat advisory warning issued for many parts of the Northeast including New York City from Monday, as the heat index could hit 105, this could exacerbate the air quality issues. New Yorkers were already starting to feel the effects. 'The air does feel a bit heavier. We won't be out as long today as we normally are because of the haziness in the air quality,' Omri Ayalon, 42, a Carroll Gardens resident out with his 9-year-old son, told The Post. 3 Canadian wildfires are triggering air quality warnings in much of the Northeast. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources/AFP via Getty Images 'I felt weird this morning. Light-headed, nauseated to be honest and a little bit dizzy,' Brooklynite Nehemiah Bounds, 27, said. 'I'm going to try to do my daily workout routine indoors tomorrow. I'm definitely feeling the difference today in air quality.' Eray Akil, 38, who was out in the park with his wife and young son, described how it felt like having 'allergies' being outside. 3 Poor quality air can cause issues for sensitive groups. Robert Miller 'I feel like I have allergies today, my son too. Nose is running, a little light headache,' he said. The worst air in the NYC area on Sunday was recorded in Bed-Stuy, Brooklyn with an AQI of 133, and outside Flushing Park in Queens, with a AQI of 132. Anything above 150 is considered unhealthy, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. Evidence of the smoke pollution was easy for everyone to see. The Statue of Liberty and the Empire State Building were barely visible from Brooklyn Bridge Park, due to the hazy conditions for much of the day. Kines, the meteorologist, said said that even after this week, more smoke cold invade the northeast. 'This probably won't be the last of it. There's still fires burning up in Canada,' he said.
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross: We'll likely have an Atlantic disturbance to follow next week
Computer forecasts continue to indicate that a fairly robust disturbance will move off Africa about Monday. The track is forecast to be far enough south that it won't immediately plow into the Saharan dust. There is a reasonable consensus in the various long-range models that the disturbance will track across the Atlantic and be in the vicinity of the northeast Caribbean late in the week. None of the current projections shows a storm of any significance when the system is near the Caribbean. It will have run a gauntlet of intruding Saharan dust, dry air, and only marginally conducive upper-level winds on its trek west. If it survives with some sort of circulation intact late in the week, there is some evidence that the overall atmospheric pattern will become more conducive for storm development. The long-range computer forecasts that predict an organized system forming—both the traditional forecasts and the new AI models—generally show a track curving near or east of the Bahamas and off the East Coast of the U.S. The odds of this happening are still in the low range, but the possibility is interesting because this is the first time that long-range projections have shown a disturbance getting far enough across the Atlantic to potentially develop into a storm. We'll see what happens over the next several days. Remember, the rule: Forecasts for systems that are just developing or are disorganized are subject to larger errors and will often change. This system hasn't even emerged from the African coast, so there's a long way to go. The National Hurricane Center is not predicting any development over the next 7 days, so we're talking about more than a week from now before anything might happen. The National Hurricane Center has three areas to watch in the eastern Pacific. Each one has a decent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, and computer model forecasts indicate a good chance they'll evolve into named storms. Two of the systems look to track south of Hawaii, and the third, parallel to the Mexican coast. Over the next few weeks, a number of computer forecasts are predicting multiple eastern Pacific storms. The possible tie to Atlantic storm development is related to the phenomenon called the MJO. The MJO is a large-scale pulse that slowly revolves around the Earth, alternately suppressing and enhancing storm development. Over the next week or so, forecasts predict that the enhancing phase will cross the eastern Pacific. This might be responsible for the predicted outbreak of organized storms. If the MJO pulse continues moving east as predicted, it would move over the Atlantic from west to east through the first part of August. This would, broadly speaking, make the atmospheric pattern across the tropics more conducive for development. This MJO forecast adds a little credence to the idea that the Atlantic disturbance might be more inclined to develop a week or 10 days from now. None of this is surprising, of course. On average, the odds of storm development increase in August and dramatically increase after August 15. The disturbance we watched track across the northern Gulf has died out, but the moisture lingers from Mississippi to East Texas. Tropical downpours causing local flooding are still possible. Stay aware. The moisture should move out after the weekend, but extreme heat will move in. The combination of heat and humidity will likely push the feels-like temperature into the 110°F range. Stay article source: Bryan Norcross: We'll likely have an Atlantic disturbance to follow next week Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.
The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin. "The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY. WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August." Has it been a slow start to season? With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. "Currently, we're above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics," Klotzbach said. One of those metrics is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of the severity of a hurricane season. ACE measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. It measures the intensity and duration of storms, and gives a better indication of overall activity than simply counting the number of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina. 'Approaching a pivot point' The season is about to heat up, Lowry said, as August is the month when activity usually ramps up. Lowry said that "despite the slow start we're approaching a pivot point in the Atlantic. Hurricanes aren't common in June and July. They happen, of course, but there are usually tall hurdles to overcome to get there." However, he added "that's not the case in August, September, and the first part of October. Those hurdles are a lot shorter so the right window can get you a big hurricane in a hurry," he said. What does the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic? "Things look pretty quiet overall," Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail. "There are some stronger waves starting to show up in the Central Atlantic, but right now, dry and sinking air is making development tough. There's another wave coming off (Africa) that may have a slight chance of development in about a week or so near the Caribbean Islands," he said. A slow July isn't unusual: "The season is usually pretty quiet through July," Klotzbach noted. "On average, we've got over 95% of major hurricane activity left to go and still about 93% of ACE left to go. On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11." What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August? Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active." Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start "So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said. What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer. "As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August. Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop? Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up: "One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average." He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic. "The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post. What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High? Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation. "As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said. "Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added. As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August." Rough hurricane season still expected The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast. The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says
