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OPEC+ may boost oil production faster than expected, weighs August hike
Bloomberg
By Nayla Razzouk, Salma El Wardany, Fiona MacDonald and Grant Smith
OPEC+ is considering accelerating its oil production revival even more rapidly than expected during a virtual meeting on Saturday, delegates said.
Saudi Arabia has guided the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase supplies by 411,000 barrels a day over the past three months, and the group is now weighing an even bigger boost in August.
The assertive strategy — allowing the group to reclaim market share from non-OPEC+ producers — comes despite the risk of a global oversupply that could further pressure prices. Oil's recent decline offers a win for President Donald Trump, who sees lower prices as a way to ease costs for inflation-hit consumers.
Brent futures hovered near $68 a barrel in London on Friday, down 13% over the past two weeks. A shift from open conflict between Israel and oil heavyweight Iran to a fragile truce has left Middle Eastern energy exports largely unaffected.
'With OPEC+ having pivoted to a market share over a price defence strategy, it may be pointless to keep a notional voluntary cut in place,' said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. 'It could be best to get it over faster, and simply move on.'
Since April, OPEC and its partners have pivoted from years of output restraint to reopening the taps, surprising crude traders and raising questions about the group's long-term strategy. Saturday's video conference was moved up by a day for scheduling reasons.
Delegates cited a range of motivations for the shift: accommodating peak summer fuel demand, curbing overproduction by some members, and clawing back market share from rivals like US shale producers. Officials say Riyadh is especially eager to restart idled output as quickly as possible.
The additional barrels may be welcomed by President Trump, who has consistently pushed for lower oil prices to support the US economy and tame inflation, while pressuring the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates.
Still, the ramp-up risks deepening a developing supply surplus, potentially driving prices to levels that could financially strain producers.
Global oil inventories have been rising at a pace of about 1 million barrels per day in recent months, as Chinese demand cools and production climbs across the Americas—from the US and Guyana to Canada and Brazil.
The International Energy Agency projects a sizable market surplus later this year. Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast that prices may drop to $60 a barrel, or lower, by the fourth quarter.OPEC+ is considering accelerating its oil production revival even more rapidly than expected during a virtual meeting on Saturday, delegates said.
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India Today
24 minutes ago
- India Today
Can Joha, Gobindobhog, Kalanamak beat the basmati-biryani nexus?
There is no jostling for competition among the varieties of rice sitting next to each other in neat jute sacks at Basudev Store in New Delhi's CR Park market. They could jolly well be having a conversation imperceivable to the human ear. The Gobindobhog rice could be telling the Haryana-born basmati, in Bengali-accented Hindi, about how it took six months for it to be ready in the fields of is Basudev Chowdhury, the shop owner, who reveals a silent friendly fight. While the long-grained basmati is a North Indian favourite, the aromatic Gobindobhog, which was a favourite in Bengali kitchens for payash or kheer, is winning over non-Bengali hearts."I have at least 15 non-Bengali customers who come to me regularly to buy gobindobhog rice. The attraction and use of gobindobhog rice have gone up over the years," says Chowdhury, who has been running the shop for close to three decades now. This is a stellar story for Gobindobhog, an aromatic rice variety, because the segment is dominated by basmati, which has received full-fledged government support. Gobindobhog (also known as Kalijira) and other non-basmati aromatic rice varieties like Kalanamak of Uttar Pradesh, Assam's Joha and Kola Joha, Bihar's Katarni and Tulaipanji of Bengal, have held their ground even as they await government hand-holding to create their own super-success is central to Bengali kheer (rice pudding) made with palm jaggery and is central to Makar Sankranti celebrations and other important occasions. Kalanamak is used in plain steamed rice or lightly spiced dishes, allowing its aroma to shine through. Joha complements Assamese meals, especially in pitha and payas (rice pudding), during festive feasts. It is also used in meals, especially with pigeon meat and duck curry. Tulaipanji, prized for its delicate texture, is often served with light Bengali curries or made into pulao on special which has received government support since the 1960s, is a major export item and has become synonymous with India the world over. Within the country, basmati's availability, aesthesis and affordability have taken it to kitchens across India. The use of basmati for biryani, a sort of nexus, has also helped it in its kitchen fragrant basmati might be the most recognised, India has several aromatic rice varieties that have the potential to create a mark of their suggest that state governments should use the signature qualities of these aromatic rice varieties to market them in alternative destinations where they are appreciated for their they say, would help them spread their aroma across the world just like basmati's and boost India's agricultural and overall exports. Else, India's rich rice varieties face risk of fading into the vloggers and influencers are promoting these "folk rice" varieties, which are linked to local festivals and folklore. Many of these videos have gone viral. Each of them are regional favourites with their own charm. Biryani made with long-grained basmati, and fragrant pulao or khichdi made with short, aromatic rice. (Images: Unsplash/Mario Raj) advertisementINDIA'S TOTAL BASMATI ACREAGE AND NON-BASMATI AROMATIC RICE ACREAGEIn 2023-24, India's total rice acreage stood at approximately 47.8 million hectares, with projections indicating a rise to 49 million hectares in 2024-25, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).Basmati rice, primarily cultivated in Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and western Uttar Pradesh, covered an estimated 2.88 million hectares, reflecting a 30 percent increase since 2020 driven by robust export basmati accounts for less than 7 percent of India's total rice production, it contributes over 60 percent of the country's rice export value. Production for 2023-24 stood at around 8.5 million tonnes, as per estimates from the Unified Portal for Agricultural aromatic rice varieties such as Kalanamak (Uttar Pradesh), Joha (Assam), Tulaipanji and Gobindobhog (West Bengal), and Ambemohar (Maharashtra) collectively span an estimated 0.5 to 1 million hectares, based on figures from Indian Agricultural Reasearch Institute (IARI) and Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) cited in multiple is seen, non-basmati aromatic varieties together span barely a third of that of exported more non-basmati rice, but basmati brought in more foreign Volume (MT)Export Value (INR Cr)Export Value (USD Bn)Basmati5.24 millionRs 48,389 crore$5.84 billionNon-Basmati11.12 millionRs 7,804 crore$4.57 billionTotal16.36 millionRs 6,193 crore$10.41 billionSo far, 45 varieties of basmati rice have been notified under The Seeds Act, 1966, according to exported approximately 5.24 million tonnes of basmati rice worth Rs 48,389 crore ($5.84 billion) and 11.12 million tonnes of non-basmati rice worth Rs 37,804 crore ($4.57 billion) in FY 2023–24, totalling 16.36 million tonnes of rice exports, according to data from APEDA and the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS).Specific data for non-basmati aromatic varieties like Joha or Kalanamak is not officially consolidated but is estimated to be a small fraction of the total non-basmati aromatic rice exports, likely in the range of tens to a few hundred thousand tonnes, as these remain niche and are exported under GI-tag and regional branding AND HOW THE THRUST ON BASMATI?India's thrust on basmati rice stems from its cultural roots, high export value, and the need for legal grown in the Indo-Gangetic plains, basmati was mostly consumed domestically until liberalisation and global demand in the 1990s transformed it into a major export crop."The first basmati rice variety was notified as far back as 1930 during British rule. Since the 1960s, the government has worked in mission mode to promote basmati. That means efforts to popularise basmati have been going on for nearly a hundred years. Alongside the government, the private sector has also played a major role", said Om Prakash, agricultural expert at Kisan Tak, India Today Digital's sister portal.A turning point came in the late 1990s when a US firm attempted to patent basmati hybrids, triggering widespread alarm. This led to India enacting the Geographical Indications Act in 1999. Though the patent was partly revoked in 2001, the incident underscored the urgency of global safeguards and wide marketing of basmati. India, finally, secured GI status for basmati in the EU in preserve quality and reputation, India regulates basmati exports through Minimum Export Price (MEP) norms, revisited as recently as 2024. Agencies like APEDA support exporters with global compliance, branding, and logistics. Strong demand from the Middle East and expat communities, especially for dishes like Arabian Mandi, has further boosted long grains and ability to absorb spices without turning mushy make it ideal for commercial a festive staple, it now anchors everyday menus, driven by India's biryani 2023, Swiggy recorded 2.5 biryani orders per second, and Zomato crossed 100 million. Post-Covid, institutional demand rose sharply—LT Foods saw a 24% jump in HORECA sales, KRBL 20–25% in bulk trends mirror this basmati market stood at Rs 495 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach Rs 537 billion by 2033, with premium rice now accounting for nearly 40% of sales. Innovations like ready-to-cook biryani kits and blended spice packs are cementing basmati's place in home rice has become one of India's top agri-exports, uplifting farmer incomes, generating rural jobs, and showing how traditional crops can thrive globally with the right legal and policy push. Basmati rice is the preferred choice in iconic biryani varieties like Hyderabadi, Lucknowi, Mughlai, Delhi, and Kolkata biryanis, as well as in globally popular dishes like Arabian Mandi and Kabsa. (Image: Getty) WHAT ARE OTHER INDIAN NON-BASMATI AROMATIC RICE?While basmati dominates in policy focus and global promotion, India's non-basmati aromatic rice varieties, like Gobindobhog, Kalanamak, Joha, and Tulaipanji, carry cultural roots and a market potential that remains largely and Tulaipanji received GI tags in 2017, but struggle with weak institutional support and market from Assam, known for its aroma and softness, hasn't received support, but its cultivation has stayed steady."Unlike basmati, which grows best in the Terai belt, Assam's climate and soil do not support the full expression of basmati's quality traits. Therefore, Assam farmers continue to cultivate traditional varieties like Joha and Kola Joha, which are better suited to local conditions and cultural preferences, among the aromatic rice varieties," agriculture expert Mowsam Hazarika tells India Today from eastern Uttar Pradesh, after near-extinction, has seen a revival through GI status in 2013 and the ODOP scheme, with acreage rising from 10,000–15,000 hectares in 2018 to up to 50,000 hectares by from Maharashtra, despite its unique fragrance, is in decline due to low yields and remains fragmented, despite local branding and schemes. With stronger marketing, organic certification, and focused policy push, these varieties could move beyond niche status and gain wider domestic and global appeal. Rice-growing states like Assam, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala and Maharashtra have many of India's non-basmati aromatic rice varieties. They are entwined with local culture, festivals, and rituals. (Image: PTI) EXPERTS ON NON-BASMATI AROMATIC RICE"Kala Namak rice is gaining traction like never before," says Professor Ramchet Chaudhary, a long-time advocate of the variety. Priced at 25-50% higher than Basmati in Indian markets, its demand is growing in the US, the UAE, and the UK, where it sells for up to 300 per kilo on he notes, had a century-long headstart, with government backing and powerful business houses. "Kala Namak is only now getting the attention it deserves."Part of the appeal lies in its nutrition. "While Basmati has 6% protein, Kala Namak has nearly 11%. It's sugar-free, with three times the iron and four times the zinc," Chaudhary tells India Today systemic hurdles persist. "There's no separate HS code for Kala Namak. It's lumped under non-Basmati. These varieties need their own recognition," he stresses. A dedicated foundation is in the experts also echo similar concerns."Assam is rich in short-grain aromatic rice varieties that are quite different from basmati in terms of grain size, elongation, and texture after cooking," says Hazarika, former Director of the Assam Seed and Organic Certification Agency."But there's been no serious national push for these either. Traditional varieties like Joha and Kola Joha continue to thrive locally, but the export support, branding, and marketing they need is largely missing," he believes GI tags and cultural importance are not enough."We need organised systems for farming, storage, aroma retention, and transportation. And most importantly, a higher MSP to make cultivation viable," says such support, he warns, many of India's unique regional grains risk fading quietly into the Ramchet Chaudhary agrees. He says, "There are so many under-supported varieties, Gobindobhog, Katarni -- each with its own story. Maybe that will now change".Despite challenges like global competition, MEPs, and weather risks, India's aromatic rice diversity is helping expand both basmati and non-basmati exports. Indigenous aromatic rice takes up to six months to mature, while high-yielding Basmati typically takes 4 to 5 months. Kalanamak, Gobindobhog, and Joha, three aromatic rice jewels of India, carry centuries-old heritage and regional pride. (Images: National Portal of India, WB Tourism, DPIIT, PTI) BASMATI, OTHER AROMATIC RICE AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORTIn January 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture introduced the Non-Basmati Aromatic Rice Classification and Marking Rules under the Grading and Marking Act. These rules standardise quality criteria for five aromatic rice varieties — Gobindabhog, Tulaipanji, Kataribhog, Kala Namak, and Radhunipagal, formalising grading and improving transparency for farmers and Department of Commerce and DGFT, via APEDA, have issued export quotas for select some obstacles need to be dealt with."Of course, we earn over Rs 50,000 crore annually in foreign exchange from the export of basmati rice. But the allure of basmati has been made so dominant that even higher-quality aromatic rice varieties have been dwarfed. This is because successive governments have been unjust to them," says Om Prakash of Kisan Tak."Basmati rice, special aromatic rice should be assigned a separate HSN (Harmonized System Nomenclature) code. This would make their export easier. It would also ensure that exports of such special rice are not halted along with non-basmati white rice," the agriculture expert said."The price value of such fragrant special varieties is far higher than basmati. For instance, Kala Namak rice is priced at Rs 300 per kilo, while basmati sells for Rs 100 to Rs 150," he some non-Basmati aromatic rice varieties are making progress."From our own home, we exported 400 quintals to the US," says Professor Ramchet Chaudhary, who was also hopeful about a better outcome for other non-Basmati aromatic rices with efforts from the government and private India, too, people who weren't acquainted with the non-basmati aromatic rice varieties are now discovering Chowdhury says he has been selling more and more Gobindobhog rice for the last 7 years. He pegs that on people experimenting with food and having more spending power. "Earlier people used Gobindobhog only for payesh. Now, they are preparing khichdi and pulao from it too."Chowdhury also shares how his non-Bengali customers discovered Gobindobhog rice."Visitors mostly like trying Bengali sweets at CR Park market. After tasting the rasgullas made of palm jaggery, they land up at my grocery store looking for the jaggery. When told that Gobindobhog goes best with palm jaggery, they try and surrender to the taste," says Chowdhury, adding that most then become loyal the non-basmati aromatic rice varieties are being discovered and recognised, they need organised calls for giving desi aromatic rice their due, increasing government push and research, it won't be too long before which aromatic rice in India could be on your kitchen shelf and India's aromatic rice story will go beyond basmati. Varieties like Gobindobhog, Joha and Kalanamak will gain more export traction and market interest. What they need next is sustained policy support, stronger branding, and targeted export promotion to realise their global potential.- EndsMust Watch
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India Gazette
37 minutes ago
- India Gazette
"Bridge between ancient wisdom and modern world,": Kiren Rijiju honours Dalai Lama on his birthday
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