Coalition releases long-awaited modelling showing energy plan could drive down household gas bills by 7%
The Coalition's plan to create a domestic gas reservation for the east coast would drive down household gas bills by 7% and industrial gas bills by 15%, newly-released estimates.
The opposition's long-awaited modelling by Frontier Economics, released on Tuesday evening, estimated the changes would bring down new domestic gas supplies to $9 or $10 a gigajoule, and came after experts shed doubt on whether the policy could drive down prices through a government market intervention.
The release, which coincided with the first leaders' debate of the election campaign, forms part of a broader suite of energy pledges the opposition has said will bring down electricity costs ahead of the proposed construction of nuclear reactors by the late 2030s.
Peter Dutton said the policy would be a 'gamechanger' amid volatile international energy markets.
'By making the gas companies put more of our Aussie gas into our market instead of exporting it, we will get the price of gas down by 15% [for industrial consumers]. Our policy will be a gamechanger because we can then see the cost and therefore price of electricity, construction, food prices and many other goods start to come down,' he said.
'In times of global uncertainty, Australians need the confidence that comes from secure, affordable energy — and that starts with Australian gas working for Australians.'
The modelling estimated there would be a 23% reduction in wholesale gas prices and a 3% reduction in residential electricity prices.
Under the proposal, east coast gas producers would be forced to provide 50 to 100 additional petajoules to Australia's east coast market – known as a gas reservation – in a bid to bring down the average price from $14 a gigajoule to $10 a gigajoule by the end of the year.
Most of the gas produced on the east coast is exported overseas, with enough given to supply gas-fired power generation and industry, commercial and residential users in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Additional gas produced forms part of the 'spot market', which can be redirected to the east coast if there is high seasonal demand or sold overseas.
Frontier Economic's modelling suggested the reduction in the domestic price of gas would occur through the use of a gas security charge – an export charge for producers making exporting gas less financially attractive than selling gas domestically at a competitive price.
The report said the scheme would prevent producers and exporters from charging domestic users the rates sold for international exports, making prices more stable and lower over time.
'The decoupling arrangement that Peter Dutton announced as part of his budget in reply ensures that gas buyers pay no more than the price that would prevail in a competitive market – known as the long run marginal cost of gas – which includes a commercial rates of return for gas producers,' Danny Price, the economic advisory group's managing director, said.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, seasonal shortfalls in gas supply for the southern states could occur by 2028 'with annual supply gaps emerging from 2029'.
In the lead up to the modelling's release, gas industry leaders expressed confusion and concern about details of the plan and whether it could be delivered.
Australian Energy Producers, the body representing the gas industry, said Dutton's plan to 'artificially reduce prices' was a 'damaging market intervention that will drive away investment and exacerbate the supply challenges in the longer term'.
The Albanese government introduced a domestic price cap of $12 a gigajoule in 2023 along with other mechanisms to push major gas producers to voluntarily offer surplus gas supplies to the domestic market before sending it overseas.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's latest gas inquiry report in March found average retail gas prices had moderated from $19.84 a gigajoule in 2023 to $14.51 in the second half of 2024.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Daily Mirror
5 hours ago
- Daily Mirror
Tottenham set deadline to appoint Thomas Frank as £10m talks progress rapidly
Tottenham Hotspur sacked Ange Postecoglou after his second season in charge of the club and are pushing to appoint Brentford boss Thomas Frank as the new coach in the coming days Tottenham are nearing an agreement with Brentford over Thomas Frank and could appoint the Bees boss as their new head coach in time for the weekend. Spurs quickly turned to Frank as their preferred candidate after sacking Ange Postecoglou last week. The north Londoners parted ways with the Australian coach despite winning the Europa League after a sub-par 17th place finish in the Premier League. And Daniel Levy looks to have taken a change in tact by looking to appoint Frank, who is deemed as a more pragmatic option. The move is set to cost Tottenham £10million but Frank could be confirmed as the club's new boss within the next 48 hours such is the positive feelings around negotiations, according to the BBC. There is will from both parties to get a deal finalised quickly. It is said new Spurs chief Vinai Venkatesham, previously of Arsenal, has been a key figure in the process alongside Levy. Venkatesham only started work at the club just over a week ago. And the positive talks are set to be tied up soon. Having said that, the £10m compensation cost could rise depending on how many members of backroom staff Frank looks to bring with him to north London. One such figure Spurs already said to be in talks over is assistant Justin Cochrane. Discussions are underway over Frank's backroom team with Cochrane's arrival particularly apt after he started his coaching career with the Europa League winners. Cochrane was previously touted as being in contention to succeed Frank at Brentford. Frank himself moved up from an assistant role under Dean Smith to take the job. The 51-year-old Dane is already thinking about the new squad that awaits him and set out a task for his future employers. Frank would like to see Brentford star Bryan Mbeumo join him across London. The Cameroon international, who scored 20 goals in 2024/25, is a target for Manchester United. The 25-year-old has already indicated his willingness to make the move to Old Trafford with a significant pay increase. Brentford want to bring in £60m for the signature of their star, who has also drawn interest from Newcastle United. And perhaps Frank's exit could provide a complicating factor. Ex-Manchester United goalkeeper Ben Foster reckons the forward will be better served following his coach across London. "I would say that if you want to be part of something that's going to make you a better footballer and work hard and be part of a team, then go to Spurs with Thomas Frank," the ex- Wrexham shot-stopper said on his Fozcast podcast. "If you are happy picking up your wages knowing that there's going to be an awful lot more pressure, a lot more eyes on you, a lot more judgement and failure is just part of what they do, then you'd go to Manchester United." Join our new WhatsApp community and receive your daily dose of Mirror Football content. We also treat our commgunity members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. If you're curious, you can read our Privacy Notice.
The Independent
7 hours ago
- The Independent
Netanyahu's government could collapse over Israel's ultra-Orthodox military draft law
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a vote to dissolve parliament Wednesday and key coalition partners have threatened to bring down his government. Still, few think it's the end of the road for Israel's longest-serving prime minister, who has been battling corruption charges for years, or his far-right government, still in power after presiding over the security failures surrounding the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attack. The move to dissolve, called by the opposition, will only pass if Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners break with him over the failure to pass a law exempting their community from military service, an issue that has bitterly divided Israelis, especially during the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. The threats coming from the ultra-Orthodox could be posturing, and many expect Netanyahu to pull off a last-minute deal. But Wednesday's vote is the most serious challenge to Netanyahu's government since the war began, and the coalition's collapse could have major implications for Israel and the ongoing war. Why the ultra-Orthodox reject military service Most Jewish men are required to serve nearly three years of military service followed by years of reserve duty. Jewish women serve two mandatory years. But the politically powerful ultra-Orthodox, who make up roughly 13% of Israeli society, have traditionally received exemptions if they are studying full-time in religious seminaries. The exemptions — and the government stipends many seminary students receive through age 26 — have infuriated the general public. After Hamas' 2023 attack, Israel activated 360,000 reservists, its largest mobilization since the 1973 Mideast war. Israel is engaged in the longest active war in the country's history, which has stretched its robust military to the breaking point. Many reserve soldiers have served multiple rounds of duty in Gaza totaling hundreds of days. Some reserve soldiers are rejecting new call-ups. The number of Israelis continuing to report for reserve duty has dropped so low that the military has taken to social media to try to recruit people to keep serving. The enlistment exemption for the ultra-Orthodox goes back to Israel's 1948 founding, when small numbers of gifted scholars were exempt from the draft in response to the decimation of Jewish scholarship during the Holocaust. But with a push from politically powerful religious parties, the numbers have swelled to tens of thousands today. Israel's Supreme Court said the exemptions were illegal in 2017, but repeated extensions and government delay tactics have prevented a replacement law from being passed. Among Israel's Jewish majority, mandatory military service is largely seen as a melting pot and rite of passage. That's exactly why some ultra-Orthodox don't want their children to serve. 'It mixes together people with very different backgrounds, very different ideas, some people with very immoral ideas,' said Rabbi Ephraim Luft, 66, from the ultra-Orthodox stronghold of Bnei Barak. Luft said the community's dedication to upholding Jewish commandments protects the country as much as military service. 'Over thousands of years, the Jewish people have stood very strongly against any kind of decrees to force them to give up their religion, they've given up their lives for this,' Luft said. 'People have to understand there's no difference between the Spanish Inquisition or the Israeli draft law.' Why ultra-Orthodox parties would want to bring down the government Two parties belonging to the Haredim, or 'God-fearing' in Hebrew, are essential to Netanyahu's coalition. Both would need to vote to dissolve the government to force new elections, including Shas, which has traditionally been more supportive of Netanyahu. On Monday, a Shas spokesperson told an ultra-Orthodox radio program the party plans to vote in favor of dissolution, unless there is a breakthrough in negotiations. The other party, Degel HaTorah, has been threatening to leave the government since last week. 'Basically, they don't really care about the war and the economic situation of the state and anything else but their communal interest. And the focus of this communal interest is getting the exemption from serving in the army," said Shuki Friedman, an expert on religion and state affairs and vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank. Friedman and other experts say the current system is unsustainable. With its high birthrate, the ultra-Orthodox are the fastest-growing segment of Israel's population, at about 4% annually. Each year, roughly 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men reach the conscription age of 18, but less than 10% enlist, according to parliament's State Control Committee, which held a hearing examining the issue. The shock of the Oct. 7 attack appeared to ignite some enthusiasm among the ultra-Orthodox to serve, but no large enlistment materialized. The army has repeatedly declined to comment on the ultra-Orthodox enlistment rate. What happens if parliament is dissolved If the dissolution vote passes, it still faces a series of bureaucratic steps, including additional votes, that the government would likely drag on for weeks or months, said Gayil Talshir, a political science professor at Hebrew University. 'It will be like a gun that's been put into position, but that doesn't mean the coalition is over,' she said. Elections in Israel are scheduled for the fall of 2026. Both Talshir and Friedman believe it's unlikely the dissolution vote will pass Wednesday. If one ultra-Orthodox party is absent, the vote will not pass and another cannot be brought for six months, Talshir said. However, there's also a 'valid possibility' the rabbis who advise the ultra-Orthodox parties will say they've waited long enough for a draft exemption law, because they are facing enormous pressure from their communities, Friedman said. On Tuesday, top Haredi rabbis issued a religious decree emphasizing their stand against military service, which complicates the Haredi politicians' ability to negotiate, Friedman added. The army has issued thousands of draft notices to the ultra-Orthodox community, and those who refuse to serve can face arrest. While only around a dozen have been arrested after being stopped for trying to leave the country or for traffic violations, the fear this has inspired is significant, he added. Impact on the war in Gaza and the hostage crisis Netanyahu frequently cites the ongoing war as a reason Israel needs to provide a united front against its enemies. While the ultra-Orthodox parties remain part of the coalition, they want the war to end as quickly as possible, Talshir said. 'The Haredim think once the war is over, the pressure will be off them and they will be able to get their (military) exemption law,' she said.
The Guardian
14 hours ago
- The Guardian
Dutch VVD rules out coalition with ‘unbelievably untrustworthy' Wilders
The Netherlands' biggest centre-right party has ruled out forming another coalition government with Geert Wilders as its leader called him 'an unbelievably untrustworthy partner' and a 'quitter' who 'puts his own interests above those of the country'. In a significant blow to the far-right firebrand's hopes of returning to power, Dilan Yeşilgöz leader of the VVD, said late on Monday that her party would not enter another government with Wilders after elections, due on 29 October. The anti-Islam politician, who last week pulled the plug on the country's four-party coalition in a row over immigration and asylum policy, 'takes no responsibility whatsoever', Yeşilgöz told RTL TV. 'He has shown that he simply runs away when things get difficult. That's tough for voters, and for the country. Geert Wilders is only interested in Geert Wilders,' she said. In a separate interview with the Telegraaf newspaper, Yeşilgöz said Wilders was 'an unbelievably untrustworthy partner' and that the Netherlands deserved 'adult leadership'. She added: 'We are not going to work with him again.' Yeşilgöz announcement means Wilders is unlikely to be able to be part of a new coalition even if his far-right Freedom party (PVV) finishes first in the elections, since every major political formation has now ruled out working with him. The PVV's shock victory in elections in November 2023 led, after months of fraught talks, to a coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), centrist New Social Contract (NSC) and liberal-conservative VVD that was sworn in last July. Wilders said last week he was pulling his party's ministers out of the pact after the other three partners refused to sign off on his 10-point plan to reduce immigration, which included turning back all asylum seekers and closing refugee hostels. Polling suggests the PVV has lost support and is now level with the VVD and Green-Labour alliance. Yeşilgöz said her party, which led the Netherlands's four previous governments, would also not consider a confidence-and-supply deal with Wilders. 'In fact, from day one he was someone who couldn't do it and didn't want to do it,' said the VVD leader, whose willingness to work with Wilders before the last election was widely credited with boosting the PVV's vote. 'It all just goes nowhere.' Yeşilgöz said there was still an 'enormous gulf' between the VVD's policies and those of the Green/Labour alliance (GL/PvdA). Most analysts predict either a VVD-led centre-right coalition or a centre-left arrangement headed by GL/PvdA.
