US Trade Policy Risks Long-Term Isolation, Expert Warns
Speaking to eNCA, Mackay, Director at XA Global Trade Advisors, said that over the past few years, the US has systematically alienated many of its trading partners.
'What the US has done is effectively 'Brexiteered' itself from much of the world. There are very few countries it hasn't managed to antagonise,' he said.
Mackay cautioned that this trend is driving other nations to forge new trade alliances, shift investment strategies, and reduce their reliance on the US. While the full impact will take time to unfold, he believes the long-term consequences could see the US increasingly isolated in the global economy.
Tariffs Likely Here to Stay
While the upcoming US election may introduce political change, Mackay doubts it will lead to a major reversal in trade policy—regardless of who takes the White House.
He pointed to recent history for context: 'President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum in his first term. When President Biden took over, he left those tariffs in place. In fact, the Biden administration went further—introducing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and launching the Inflation Reduction Act, which is the world's largest subsidy programme.'
According to Mackay, both Democrats and Republicans appear aligned in their more protectionist approach, making it unlikely that tariffs will be significantly rolled back in the near future.
Finding New Markets Not So Simple
For countries like South Africa that have traditionally depended on US markets, the outlook is fraught with uncertainty.
'Finding new markets is not just about geography, it's about margin,' Mackay explained. 'You have to find a buyer willing to pay what you were earning in the US. And even if you do, you'll face pushback from local competitors in that new market.'
He added that navigating new regulatory environments, building distribution networks, and understanding consumer preferences also complicate the process.
'These are not impossible problems, but none of them are easy,' he said.
With global trade at a crossroads, analysts warn that volatility will remain a defining feature of the economic landscape in the years ahead.
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