NFL worst to first: Ranking last-place teams chances of winning their division in 2025

USA Today

3 days ago

The basement can be a cold, dark and lonely place that is also forgotten.
Luckily for the NFL teams stuck at the bottom, they are given the opportunity to move up. They are awarded a higher draft pick and sometimes have more money to spend thanks to a roster that isn't loaded with as much talent. They are given an easier schedule, on paper, since they match up against other last-place teams.
The NFL wants those teams to compete. After all, it's good for business.
For the first time since 2019, an NFL team didn't go from worst to first in 2024. Here is our ranking of the last-place finishers from 2024 and how likely they are to accomplish that feat in 2025.
Ranking NFL teams with best chance to go worst to first
The bottom of the list is a crowded place of mediocrity. While the Giants could easily surprise – and they certainly have the talent for it – the path to winning the NFC East is about as tough as it gets this year. Barring something catastrophic to one of the three teams in front of them, it seems almost impossible that the Giants get out of the basement in 2025.
Already armed with the toughest schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis, there are far more questions than answers for Big Blue. Will Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen last through the season? Will Russell Wilson be the starting quarterback or will Jaxson Dart take over at some point?
There are reasons for Giants fans to be optimistic given their young core. That doesn't mean they're ready to get through the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys.
Cleveland was close to stealing the bottom spot from New York here, but wins out in a division that has a little more uncertainty. Outside of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, the AFC North is littered with questions. What will Aaron Rodgers bring to the Pittsburgh Steelers? Can the Cincinnati Bengals finally figure it out?
The Browns have a roster that requires plenty of work before they can truly make some noise. However, a young running back room and Myles Garrett wreaking havoc on defense could be the recipe for controlling the clock and stealing some wins. Still, don't hold your breath.
Pete Carroll and Geno Smith are bringing a piece of Seattle with them to the desert, yet they face an uphill climb in a loaded AFC West. Ashton Jeanty can easily transform an offense that also features Brock Bowers, but to expect the four-win Raiders to dethrone the Kansas City Chiefs while leapfrogging the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos is a bridge too far.
The schedule is also unforgiving with matchups against the NFC East on tap, so don't expect a soft launch for the silver-and-black. Vegas is trending up, but not up enough.
New Orleans might be one of the worst teams in the NFL next season, which should've put them closer to the bottom of this list. However, they benefit from playing in the NFC South – a division that is far from a juggernaut. Barring a surprising rookie year from Tyler Shough, the Saints will likely finish in the same spot next year.
There is talent on this team though. The offense still features Alvin Kamara and a solid trio of receivers with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. With Kellen Moore taking over the head coaching job, perhaps he can get the Saints on the right path. Bottom line, unless the rest of the division falls apart, they won't be NFC South champions this year.
What should we make of Cam Ward? He's flown under the radar throughout the draft and the offseason, quietly working in the shadows ahead of his rookie season. All eyes have instead been on Shedeur Sanders with the Browns, allowing Ward that freedom to be shielded from the media spotlight.
And just like the NFC South, the AFC's version won't be flush with wins in 2025. C.J. Stroud is already dealing with a shoulder injury in Houston and now Anthony Richardson is battling Daniel Jones for the starting quarterback job in Indianapolis.. That leaves Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, who is coming off a shoulder injury that ended his 2024 season.
Ward will hope to avoid that trend amongst AFC South quarterbacks. His Titans might not possess the talent to compete with those other teams on paper, but the door is open if things break right and the rookie performs as advertised in Tennessee.
Jerod Mayo is out and Mike Vrabel is in as the Patriots look to author a new chapter in 2025. The first season in the post-Bill Belichick era was certainly a culture shock in the New England area, but it didn't come without hope for the future.
While Jacoby Brissett enjoyed the starting quarterback spot for longer than he should've, Drake Maye proved that there is reason to believe in the young signal caller. Now with Vrabel taking over to stabilize a young squad, the Patriots are ready to turn the corner after a short stay in NFL irrelevance.
A lot would have to go right for the Patriots to dethrone the Buffalo Bills, but this crop of last-place finishers doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence heading into 2025. The Patriots feel like they're a year away from being competitive. Perhaps we'll be saying they were right on time if things break right.
If you want to be technical, the Panthers finished third in the NFC South. However, they did tie with the Saints for last place at 5-12 and that qualifies them for this list. Another year of improvement from Bryce Young and a second season under Dave Canales is more than enough to give the Panthers a chance in what profiles as a weak division.
That weak division can lead to some shocking results, especially if Carolina's young core takes a big step forward. The defense may hold them back, but we aren't ready to rule out some funny business in the southern states.
The Bears have rid themselves of a disastrous coaching staff and loaded up on talent, hoping that better days lie ahead. Ben Johnson has seemingly pushed all the right buttons in the Windy City since being hired as the head coach and he's the reason why the Bears could take a drastic leap forward in 2025.
His hiring weakened the division rival Detroit Lions as the revolving door keeps turning out of the Motor City. The Lions are poised for a step back next season and the Minnesota Vikings are featuring J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. The Green Bay Packers are consistent, but the Bears were 5-12 as a dumpster fire last season.
It won't take a 10-win improvement to catch this year's Lions and talent hasn't been the question in Chicago. A second-year leap from Caleb Williams could be all it takes to put the Bears back in the conversation as NFC North contenders.
Injuries and more derailed the 49ers in 2024, but they are back and loaded for another potential postseason run. Brock Purdy got his contract extension, George Kittle was also taken care of and Robert Saleh has returned as defensive coordinator.
In many ways, San Francisco is getting the band back together and this team will go as far as Christian McCaffrey takes them. Concerns surrounding his injuries can easily hold them back, but it's easy to forget that they were a Super Bowl runner-up two years ago.
Outside of the Los Angeles Rams, the competition in the division remains uninspiring. After finishing in last place at 6-10 in the NFC West, San Francisco not only has the easiest schedule in the league, but they also stand the best chance of flipping the script in 2025.
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