Latest news with #Antipodeans
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australian, New Zealand dollars eye multi-month tops as US-China talks continue
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were perched near multi-month peaks on Tuesday on hopes for good news from US-China trade talks in London that are set to extend to a second day. The Aussie inched up 0.1% at $0.6523, having bounced 0.4% overnight to as high as $0.6533. It is just under a seven-month top of $0.6537, with support now at the 200-day moving average of $0.6431. The kiwi dollar was also 0.1% higher at $0.6052, after rising 0.5% overnight to as high as $0.6066. It is hovering within a whisker of an eight-month peak of $0.6080, while the next upside targets are $0.6119 and $0.6379. Top economic officials from the US and China are set to meet in London for a second day to defuse a bitter trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earths. Beijing has started issuing rare earth licenses to suppliers of the top US automakers. 'The AUD/USD has spent the past month consolidating its rebound from the April lows in a range between 0.6350ish and 0.6540ish,' said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. 'After the current period of consolidating is completed, we look for the AUD/USD to extend its gains towards medium-term resistance at 0.6740/50.' The domestic backdrop for the Aussie is, however, not too favourable. Local data showed business activity stalled in May as consumers kept their wallets shut despite a cut in interest rates during the month. Consumer sentiment also lifted only marginally amid concerns about a worsening economic outlook. Aussie little troubled by soft data, kiwi eyes 7-month top They followed a subdued GDP report last week that had raised questions whether the Reserve Bank of Australia has left policy too tight for too long. Swaps imply a 75% probability that the RBA will cut rates in July while a total easing of 87 basis points has been priced in by mid-next year. Looking ahead, this week is light on economic data or events in both Australia and New Zealand, with movements in the two Antipodeans largely dependent on the function of the US dollar. The main global event is the US consumer price report for May, due on Wednesday, which will give insight into the inflationary impact of tariffs. The bond market returned from a public holiday with yields slightly higher after investors sold Treasuries on Friday on a beat in the US jobs figure. Australia's three-year government bond yields rose 2 basis points to 3.385%, while ten year yields gained 3 bps to 4.301%.
Business Recorder
27-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, New Zealand dollars stall as rallies run into resistance
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were unable to sustain gains and edged away from six-month highs on Tuesday, with the market focused on an upcoming policy meeting in New Zealand. The Aussie slipped 0.1% at $0.6481 after having retreated from a six-month peak of $0.6537 overnight when it finished 0.1% lower. There's now stiff resistance at $0.6515 while solid support lies at its 200-day moving average of $0.6447. It has surged 10% since early April. The kiwi dollar eased 0.2% to $0.5988. It hit a six-month top of $0.6031 overnight and finished 0.2% higher. Resistance is strong at $0.6029, with support at the 200-day moving average of $0.5877. Overnight, the sell-off in the US dollar steadied a little after US President Donald Trump flip flopped again on his latest tariff threat against Europoe. That helped the two Antipodeans break higher but ultimately they were not able to hold onto the gains in a holiday thinned session. 'We have a constructive view on both antipodean currencies, but it is fair to say that near term the AUD is finding it difficult to sustain breaks above 0.65 while the kiwi is facing resistance around the 0.6030 area,' said Rodgrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank. The next catalyst is most likely to be a central bank policy decision in New Zealand on Wednesday. The RBNZ is widely expected to cut interest rates to 3.25%, though uncertainty remains about where rates will bottom. Swaps imply a quarter-point rate cut has been fully priced in, with rates set to hit 2.85% later this year. Australia, New Zealand dollars gain but face stiff chart resistance 'We see the RBNZ's OCR profile being revised down by around 20bp to around 2.9% by the end of 2025. A broadly flat profile beyond 2025 seems likely,' said analysts at Westpac. 'The very short term assumption for Q3 2025 is likely to leave the RBNZ the option to cut the OCR in either of July or August.' Australian monthly inflation data is also due on Wednesday and analysts are expecting the monthly rate to have eased to 2.3% in April from 2.4% the previous month. The report is heavily focused on goods rather than services in the first month of the quarter, and usually does not have a significant bearing on policy rates. A rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia in July is now priced at a 67% probability, with a total of 80 basis points in easing expected by early next year.
The Star
27-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
Australia, NZ dollars hit new 2025 highs amid more US tariff chaos
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit new 2025 highs after US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff threats undermined the greenback, while a rebound in global stocks also aided the risk-sensitive currencies. The Aussie rallied 0.6% to US$0.6536, the highest since late November. It jumped 1.4% last Friday to break above the 200-day moving average of US$0.6448, with resistance now at around US$0.6550. The kiwi dollar gained 0.6% to US$0.6029, the highest since early November. It surged 1.5% last Friday, with support solid at the 200-day moving average of US$0.5877. Trump last Friday threatened to ratchet up tariffs on the European Union (EU) and warned Apple he may slap a 25% levy on all imported iPhones, sending US shares and the US dollar sharply lower. However, in a reversal on Sunday, he backed off on the EU tariff plan and agreed to extend the deadline for talks until July 9. Wall Street futures rallied 1%, with better risk appetite helping the two Antipodeans extending their gains yesterday. 'Any tariff news could inject more volatility into currency markets and pull the US dollar down,' said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 'The Aussie dollar and the US dollar could break above the topside of its recent range of US$0.6350 to US$0.6550 this week.' Tariff news aside, this week is set to be busy for the two Antipodeans. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet tomorrow when it is widely expected to cut interest rates to 3.25%, though uncertainty remains about its next moves. Swaps imply a quarter-point rate cut has been fully priced in, with rates bottoming at either 3% or 2.75% later this year. Australia will release its monthly consumer price index data today and retail sales on Friday. The updates have gained more importance after the central bank opened the door to further policy easing last week. A rate cut in July is now priced at a 65% probability, with a total easing of 75 basis points expected by early next year. — Reuters
Business Recorder
26-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, New Zealand dollars hit new 2025 highs amid more US tariff chaos
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit new 2025 highs on Monday after US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff threats undermined the greenback, while a rebound in global stocks also aided the risk-sensitive currencies. The Aussie rallied 0.6% to $0.6536, the highest since late November. It jumped 1.4% on Friday to break above the 200-day moving average of $0.6448, with resistance now at around $0.6550. The kiwi dollar also gained 0.6% to $0.6029, the highest since early November. It surged 1.5% on Friday, with support solid at the 200-day moving average of $0.5877. Trump on Friday threatened to ratchet up tariffs on the European Union and warned Apple he may slap a 25% levy on all imported iPhones, sending US shares and the dollar sharply lower. However, in a reversal on Sunday, he backed off on the EU tariff plan and agreed to extend the deadline for talks until July 9. Wall Street futures rallied 1%, with the better risk appetite helping the two Antipodeans extending their gains on Monday. 'Any tariff news could inject more volatility into currency markets and pull the USD down,' said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. 'AUD/USD could break above the topside of its recent range of 0.6350 to 0.6550 this week.' Tariff news aside, this week is set to be busy for the two Antipodeans. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday where it is widely expected to cut interest rates to 3.25%, though uncertainty remains about its next moves. Australia, New Zealand dollars gain but face stiff chart resistance Swaps imply a quarter-point rate cut has been fully priced in, with rates bottoming at either 3% or 2.75% later this year. Australia will release monthly CPI data on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. The updates have gained more importance after the central bank opened the door to further policy easing last week. A rate cut in July is now priced at a 65% probability, with a total easing of 75 basis points expected by early next year.
Business Recorder
23-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, New Zealand dollars gain but face stiff chart resistance
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained on Friday as an overnight bounce in the US currency faded, but they still face some heavy resistance levels that have kept them mostly range-bound. The Aussie rose 0.4% to $0.6437, recouping all its overnight losses, and is set to end the week up 0.5%. It faces some stiff resistance at $0.6450 and $0.6500/6515, while support is solid at $0.6360. The kiwi inched up 0.3% to $0.5917, having lost 0.7% overnight and bringing the weekly rise to 0.6%. It stayed corralled in a range of $0.5847 to $0.6029 that has held for the past month. The US dollar bounced overnight partly due to the passage of President Donald Trump's bill for huge tax and spending cuts by the House of Representatives, but the lift proved short-lived on Friday as investors stayed bearish about the fate of the dollar. More analysts are turning bullish on the Australian dollar. 'The worst of the external backdrop for AUD looks to be passing,' said Lachlan Dynan, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank. 'China's credit impulse is around its highest in four years and the fiscal impulse has lifted. Combined with the US-China climbdown on tariffs, the outlook for AU export demand looks better than many had feared,' he added. 'The more dovish RBA shouldn't hamper AUD.' New Zealand dollar struggles as tight budget signals more policy easing On Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia's deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, said Australian exporters were upbeat on the business outlook in China, despite the trade war. Governor Michele Bullock will visit China next week to meet her counterparts. The coming week is set to be busy for the two Antipodeans, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy meet on Wednesday, at which it is widely expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.25%, though uncertainty remains about its next moves. Australia will see the release of data on monthly CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday, which have gained more importance after its central bank opened the door to further policy easing. A rate cut in July is now priced at a 60% probability, with a total easing of 65 basis points expected by year-end. Local bond markets, which have cheered the RBA's pivot, are set for bumper gains this week. Australian three-year government bond yields fell 13 bps in the week to 3.499%, their biggest weekly drop since early April.
