Australian, New Zealand dollars eye multi-month tops as US-China talks continue

Business Recorder

10-06-2025

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were perched near multi-month peaks on Tuesday on hopes for good news from US-China trade talks in London that are set to extend to a second day.
The Aussie inched up 0.1% at $0.6523, having bounced 0.4% overnight to as high as $0.6533.
It is just under a seven-month top of $0.6537, with support now at the 200-day moving average of $0.6431.
The kiwi dollar was also 0.1% higher at $0.6052, after rising 0.5% overnight to as high as $0.6066.
It is hovering within a whisker of an eight-month peak of $0.6080, while the next upside targets are $0.6119 and $0.6379.
Top economic officials from the US and China are set to meet in London for a second day to defuse a bitter trade dispute that has widened from tariffs to restrictions over rare earths.
Beijing has started issuing rare earth licenses to suppliers of the top US automakers.
'The AUD/USD has spent the past month consolidating its rebound from the April lows in a range between 0.6350ish and 0.6540ish,' said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
'After the current period of consolidating is completed, we look for the AUD/USD to extend its gains towards medium-term resistance at 0.6740/50.'
The domestic backdrop for the Aussie is, however, not too favourable.
Local data showed business activity stalled in May as consumers kept their wallets shut despite a cut in interest rates during the month.
Consumer sentiment also lifted only marginally amid concerns about a worsening economic outlook.
Aussie little troubled by soft data, kiwi eyes 7-month top
They followed a subdued GDP report last week that had raised questions whether the Reserve Bank of Australia has left policy too tight for too long. Swaps imply a 75% probability that the RBA will cut rates in July while a total easing of 87 basis points has been priced in by mid-next year.
Looking ahead, this week is light on economic data or events in both Australia and New Zealand, with movements in the two Antipodeans largely dependent on the function of the US dollar.
The main global event is the US consumer price report for May, due on Wednesday, which will give insight into the inflationary impact of tariffs.
The bond market returned from a public holiday with yields slightly higher after investors sold Treasuries on Friday on a beat in the US jobs figure.
Australia's three-year government bond yields rose 2 basis points to 3.385%, while ten year yields gained 3 bps to 4.301%.