Australia dollar slips on rate burden, kiwi braces for jobs data
Data from ANZ and employment website Indeed showed the Australian job ads fell 1% in July, suggesting the labour market is easing gradually. Household spending rose modestly in June, although spending on services fell for the first month in three.
'Households are still choosing their spending targets wisely, with the selective pattern of spending shows households remain on average budget constrained,' said analysts at Citi in a note to clients.
'To us, this shows that cost of living concerns still matter. Relief should come in the form of a -25bp RBA interest rate cut next Tuesday.'
Indeed, swaps now see a quarter point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week is a done deal, after the second quarter inflation data surprised on the low side. The central bank last month passed up the chance to lower rates.
The Aussie slipped 0.1% at $0.6460, after easing 0.1% overnight. It is back in the recent trading range of between 64 cents and 66 cents, with the break higher to $0.6625 proving to be a false one.
The kiwi dollar was off 0.2% to $0.5894, after slipping 0.2% on Monday. It has support at $0.5850, while resistance is around $0.6050.
The two Antipodeans rallied after weak U.S. jobs data on Friday had markets price in a near-certain chance of a cut from the Federal Reserve next month, pummelling the U.S. dollar that had been on an uptrend.
However, they both gave ground to the ascending yen, hovering near a four-week low of 95 yen and a seven-week trough of 86.8 yen respectively.
It is a quiet week for the Australian dollar with little major economic data on tap, but the kiwi is bracing for uncertainty from Wednesday's quarterly jobs figure. The unemployment rate is likely to show another rise to 5.3%, adding to the case of a cut in rates this month.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now 85% priced for a 25 basis point cut on August 20, with maybe another move in the bag by early next year.
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