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Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Why College Football Playoff committee could be tested by these two SEC teams
Billy Napier chuckled when I asked him about Florida's schedule. What else could the Gators coach do but laugh? Florida's gantlet in 2025 projects to be among the nation's toughest, while its fourth-year coach tries to stay off the hot seat. 'I don't have control over' the schedule, Napier said in May as we chatted in a hotel basement during the SEC's spring meetings. Hard to imagine any coach asking for a schedule like the one Napier's Gators will play. Florida will face seven teams expected to be ranked in the preseason US LBM Coaches poll. With non-conference games against Miami and Florida State in the mix, the Gators are one of three SEC teams that will play 10 games against Power Four competition. 'Big-picture wise, it can be an advantage or a disadvantage,' Napier said of the schedule, 'based off' how the College Football Playoff committee makes its at-large selections. Oklahoma's Brent Venables can relate. His Sooners will face seven, maybe even eight, teams likely to be ranked in the preseason Top 25. Florida and Oklahoma serve as a backbone of the SEC's quest for the playoff committee to more heavily weight strength of schedule when making at-large selections. The SEC continued its strength-of-schedule drumbeat this week during the conference's media days. PRESSURE POINTS: Alabama, Kalen DeBoer face big questions in post-Saban era GO TIME: Auburn's Freeze ends excuses, but is he ready for expectations? Why Florida, Oklahoma could challenge playoff committee The SEC positioned three 9-3 teams for playoff consideration last season based on schedule strength, but neither Alabama, Mississippi nor South Carolina earned selection. On paper, at least, Florida and Oklahoma will endure a more intense gantlet than those 9-3 SEC teams navigated in 2024. A 9-3 team from the SEC qualifying for the playoff would vindicate the conference's relentless messaging campaign touting its strength of schedule and as it implores the committee to more heavily weight those metrics. In truth, the committee traditionally values the SEC's strength of schedule, but Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina each presented résumés that were too flawed a year ago. Also, it became difficult to distinguish which of those three 9-3 teams most deserved playoff consideration. The committee opted for none of them. Lessons from Alabama, Ole Miss not earning playoff selection I thought the committee erred by awarding the final at-large bid to SMU, which lacked a signature victory despite its 11-2 record, but I didn't interpret the committee's choice as a rule that it would never take a three-loss SEC team instead of a one- or two-loss team from another conference. Florida and Oklahoma, with their capable lineups but daunting schedules, are candidates to become the playoff's first 9-3 qualifier. Each touts one of the nation's most talented quarterbacks, in Florida's DJ Lagway and Oklahoma's John Mateer, a Washington State transfer. Mateer highlighted Oklahoma's portal plunder that transformed its roster after a losing season. Alabama, too, could present a more compelling playoff case if it finished at 9-3 this season, compared to its three-loss résumé from 2024. The Crimson Tide will play 10 Power Four opponents, after facing nine last year. Two of Alabama's three losses last season came against teams that finished the regular season 6-6. Ole Miss, like Alabama, secured a marquee victory against Georgia, but the Rebels lost at home to woebegone Kentucky. Strength of schedule influences the committee's rankings, but losses to bad or mediocre teams become an anchor on a résumé. Interestingly, Oklahoma and Florida landed crippling blows to SEC's quest for four playoff bids last year, by upsetting Alabama and Ole Miss, respectively, in late November. Let Alabama and Ole Miss be a lesson for Florida and Oklahoma: If you must lose, don't lose to the weaker teams on your schedule. Score some wins against Top 25 opponents, let your strength of schedule work for you, and don't lose to Vanderbilt or Kentucky. Oklahoma won't need to worry about that last point. Its schedule includes neither Kentucky, nor Vanderbilt, nor any SEC opponent that's expected to finish among the bottom four of the conference standings. Oklahoma's schedule amounts to 'the biggest challenge in all of college football,' Venables said on the SEC Network in December. That's not hyperbole. I could say the schedules staring down Florida and Oklahoma seem engineered to get a coach fired. Alternatively, they're also designed to nudge a team that finishes 9-3 into the playoff. Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@ and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Florida, Oklahoma could test College Football Playoff committee


USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Florida tied for 11th best blue-chip ratio in college football
The blue-chip ratio isn't a perfect science, but it remains true that each of the last 14 NCAA champions has a roster comprised of at least 50% four- and five-star talents. Bud Elliott of CBS Sports invented the stat over a decade ago, and it has remained a popular projection tool for identifying which teams are true contenders entering the regular season. While any team has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, only 18 have the blue-chip ratio necessary to finish on top. Florida finds itself in a three-way tie for No. 11 on the list, alongside Auburn and Miami, with a 64% blue-chip ratio. Sixteen of the 26 class of 2025 signees are rated four stars or higher, which is just below the four-year average used. Billy Napier might have signed his first top-10 class, but the BCR trend says he's relying a little too heavily on three-star talent to buff the numbers. Signing one or two fewer three stars would have helped the BCR over the next four years, but the potential of adding an undervalued recruit is too high for Napier to ignore. 2025 Blue Chip Ratio Top 18 How has this stat performed in the past? The Blue-Chip Ratio is not... "A requirement to make the College Football Playoff. While related, making the College Football Playoff and winning it are two drastically different accomplishments in terms of difficulty. Schedule strength plays a much bigger role in the former. Plenty of teams outside the BCR threshold made the four-team College Football Playoff (typically getting crushed, by the way), and many more will make the new 12-team field." "A substitute for player development, culture or coaching. All of those elements matter and are necessary to win the national title. The BCR is simply the minimum historical standard of recruiting necessary to win it all." "To be used to pick games. It is not an effective predictive measure in single-game settings." Florida Blue-Chip Ratio history Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Florida football QB DJ Lagway shuts down injury rumors during 2025 SEC media days
Florida football quarterback DJ Lagway had one clear message during the 2025 SEC media days event in Atlanta: he's healthy, and he's ready to lead the Florida Gators this season. Lagway was limited during spring practice with a shoulder injury, but he told reporters that it is no longer an issue heading into the 2025 season. "Just to say, I don't have a prosthetic arm," Lagway joked. "Just letting y'all know that." Lagway, a former five-star recruit out of high school, was recovering from a shoulder issue that kept him from throwing during the spring. Despite the missed reps, the Gators' quarterback said he's confident in how far he's come. "I'm itching and crawling to get back on the field with the guys," Lagway said. "But I'm feeling great. Training has been amazing, I've been working. I'm actually getting better at doing that, just trying to get back to throwing the ball." Lagway added that the recovery process has given him time to focus on refining the mental and technical side of his game. "I've been working on mechanics that's going to help my accuracy this year, help my decision-making," he said. "It's been great. I'm just excited to get out there with the guys." The injury caused concern throughout Gator Nation this offseason, as Florida's success this season plays a large part on Lagway's health. Head coach Billy Napier didn't dive into the details of Lagway's injury status during his SEC media days appearance, but he did share a positive update. According to Napier, Lagway took part in a throwing session earlier before the team's trip to Atlanta, a promising sign as fall camp approaches. Napier added that the staff expects the sophomore quarterback to be fully healthy and ready to go when preseason practices begin. "We don't have anyone that we anticipate not being available at the beginning of training camp," Napier said when asked about the health surrounding the team. While specifics remain scarce with Lagway's status, both he and Napier expressed confidence in his recovery trajectory. When asked whether he underwent a procedure to address lingering issues, Lagway acknowledged minor setbacks but kept the details minimal. "Yeah, you know, a lot of players have (nooks) and crannies, little things that was lingering during the season," Lagway said. "Outside of that, I'm just ready to get out there." All eyes will be on Lagway as he returns to full strength with a chance to become one of the top quarterbacks in the SEC this season. Follow us on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as , and like our page on to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions. This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: DJ Lagway injury update: Florida football QB healthy for 2025 season
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Where Billy Napier lands on CBS Sports Hot Seat Rankings
A year ago, Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports gave Florida head coach Billy Napier a four (out of five) hot seat rating and listed him second on the "now or never" section of his breakdown. The Gators rattled off four wins to cap off an 8-5 2024 campaign, and Dodd retired, leaving the door open for a fresh assessment ahead of the 2025 season. With a new methodology in place, and multiple minds meeting to provide a more precise rating for all 136 FBS head coaches, the CBS Sports Staff gave Napier a 3.67 heading into his fourth year in Gainesville. Eight head coaches are on a hotter seat than Napier, according to this system, including Arkansas's Sam Pittman, Auburn's Hugh Freeze and Oklahoma's Brent Venables. Wisconsin's Luke Fickell is tied with Napier for the ninth hottest seat in the country. "Our panel of nine experts rated every coach on a scale from 0 to 5," reads the methodology. "The average score offers a clearer picture of the hot seat landscape heading into the 2025 season. Across the FBS, things appear relatively stable — at least for now — with 88 of 136 coaches receiving a composite rating between 0 and 1.99, indicating they're "safe and secure." But among the (seven) coaches with ratings higher than "4", and even the (21) with scores above "3", there are big-name programs that will demand attention after the slightest stumble." Matt Zenitz, Shehan Jeyarajah, Brandon Marcello, John Talty, Tom Fornelli, Bud Elliott, Chris Hummer, Chip Patterson and Richard Johnson make up the panel. What Billy Napier needs to stay at Florida Things looked bleak for Napier after a blowout loss to Texas last season. Graham Mertz had already gone down with his ACL injury and DJ Lagway got hurt in the Georgia game a week earlier. Now 4-5 on the season with LSU and Ole Miss coming up, Florida needed an upset to reach bowl eligibility. Athletic director Scott Stricklin released a public vote of confidence in favor of Napier, both confusing and riling up the fan base. Still, Florida committed to seeing things through with Napier and it paid off on the recruiting front. Upsets against LSU and Ole Miss with DJ Lagway running the show also helped Florida secure the No. 7-ranked class, a program best since 2013. Once again, Napier and Florida face the league's toughest schedule. Winning two of three against LSU, Miami and Texas would put everyone in a good position, but dropping two of three means Texas A&M and Mississippi State become must-wins. The Georgia game is the golden snitch of it all. Beating Kirby Smart in Jacksonville in front of recruits is the best thing a Florida coach can do for his career. Still, it's easier said than done. There are three winnable games against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee before the regular season finale against Florida State. A nine-win season would show progression under Napier, but an eight-win year could spell doom in the sport's most impatient conference. Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions. This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Florida Gators coach Billy Napier hot seat rankings CBS Sports 2025


USA Today
6 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Where Billy Napier lands on CBS Sports Hot Seat Rankings
A year ago, Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports gave Florida head coach Billy Napier a four (out of five) hot seat rating and listed him second on the "now or never" section of his breakdown. The Gators rattled off four wins to cap off an 8-5 2024 campaign, and Dodd retired, leaving the door open for a fresh assessment ahead of the 2025 season. With a new methodology in place, and multiple minds meeting to provide a more precise rating for all 136 FBS head coaches, the CBS Sports Staff gave Napier a 3.67 heading into his fourth year in Gainesville. Eight head coaches are on a hotter seat than Napier, according to this system, including Arkansas's Sam Pittman, Auburn's Hugh Freeze and Oklahoma's Brent Venables. Wisconsin's Luke Fickell is tied with Napier for the ninth hottest seat in the country. "Our panel of nine experts rated every coach on a scale from 0 to 5," reads the methodology. "The average score offers a clearer picture of the hot seat landscape heading into the 2025 season. Across the FBS, things appear relatively stable — at least for now — with 88 of 136 coaches receiving a composite rating between 0 and 1.99, indicating they're "safe and secure." But among the (seven) coaches with ratings higher than "4", and even the (21) with scores above "3", there are big-name programs that will demand attention after the slightest stumble." Matt Zenitz, Shehan Jeyarajah, Brandon Marcello, John Talty, Tom Fornelli, Bud Elliott, Chris Hummer, Chip Patterson and Richard Johnson make up the panel. What Billy Napier needs to stay at Florida Things looked bleak for Napier after a blowout loss to Texas last season. Graham Mertz had already gone down with his ACL injury and DJ Lagway got hurt in the Georgia game a week earlier. Now 4-5 on the season with LSU and Ole Miss coming up, Florida needed an upset to reach bowl eligibility. Athletic director Scott Stricklin released a public vote of confidence in favor of Napier, both confusing and riling up the fan base. Still, Florida committed to seeing things through with Napier and it paid off on the recruiting front. Upsets against LSU and Ole Miss with DJ Lagway running the show also helped Florida secure the No. 7-ranked class, a program best since 2013. Once again, Napier and Florida face the league's toughest schedule. Winning two of three against LSU, Miami and Texas would put everyone in a good position, but dropping two of three means Texas A&M and Mississippi State become must-wins. The Georgia game is the golden snitch of it all. Beating Kirby Smart in Jacksonville in front of recruits is the best thing a Florida coach can do for his career. Still, it's easier said than done. There are three winnable games against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Tennessee before the regular season finale against Florida State. A nine-win season would show progression under Napier, but an eight-win year could spell doom in the sport's most impatient conference. Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.