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New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch Xavier vs. Illinois: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Illinois got perhaps the slightly tougher matchup between Xavier and Texas, who played for the No. 11 spot in the Midwest on Wednesday. Xavier put Texas away 86-80 and now faces a team in the Fighting Illini that, at full strength, can compete with almost anyone. Our Bracket Breaker analysts gave Xavier just a 26.9 percent chance of making this an upset. The odds are a bit closer, with Illinois favored by only a few points. We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Own your bracket pool with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title | Best bracket names Strengths: Illinois owns the length and athleticism to compete against almost anyone. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley are legitimate NBA lottery prospects who stuff the stat sheet through facilitations, dribble drives and arc splashes. As a collective, the Illini are capable of defending with the nation's best. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic is a versatile rim protector who is disruptive on both ends. A phenomenal rebounding team, Illinois generates abundant second and third chances. When getting downhill, its kick-out game and free-throw conversions can demoralize the competition. Advertisement Weaknesses: The Illini are kings of inconsistency. Yes, they're talented enough to blow out early-round foes by 30. However, their often unwavering devotion to the 3-pointer is extremely problematic. When they've settled for outside jumpers instead of attacking the rim, it's led to prolonged scoring droughts. Down the regular season's homestretch, Illinois also loosened defensively, ranking No. 286 in opponent's eFG% over its final eight games. That slide was only exacerbated by an alarming lack of frontcourt depth. Turnovers also took a toll. Frankly, predicting where the roulette wheel stops is an easier exercise than figuring out which Illini team shows up. Outlook: Enigmatic best describes Illinois. When bringing its best, it can flatten opponents in convincing fashion. However, when complacently chucking 3s and not staunchly defending, the Illini are susceptible to a knockout. The Orange and Blue recaptured their early season mojo in the final two weeks of the regular season. Most importantly, key reserve Morez Johnson Jr. returned to action in the Big Ten tournament. With confidence regained and given their baseline talents, the Illini are quite possibly the most dangerous mid-seeded team in the entire Dance. —Brad Evans Strengths: Peaking at the right time is a phrase that best applies to the citizens of Cincinnati. Over the regular season's last month, Xavier was the Big East's highest-performing team, checking in at No. 17 overall, according to BartTorvik. Popping nets during that stretch, Sean Miller's men showed considerable scoring giddyup. In their final eight games before the postseason, they ranked No. 34 nationally in effective field goal percentage, drilling 55.8 percent on 2-pointers and 38.7 percent on 3s, and they shot 79.3 percent on free throws and finished top-five in assist rate. Also, the Musketeers forced a turnover on close to 21 percent of opponent possessions and masterfully sealed off the glass. Advertisement Weaknesses: The biggest liability for Zach Freemantle and friends is defense. Over the regular season's final month, Xavier was a rather doughy No. 254 in effective field goal percentage D, surrendering 55.6 percent inside the arc. That around-the-rim vulnerability is a concern when facing teams with formidable post action. Per Haslametrics, the Musketeers slotted a very average No. 99 in near-proximity percentage defense. Outlook: Momentum is often one heck of a postseason elixir. The X-Men enter March's main event influenced by it. Yes, they sorely lacked quality resume wins, but their divine offensive execution on the regular season's back nine collected numerous birdies. It's buyable the Muskies leave a divot or three in non-believers' brackets. According to KenPom, they are the most experienced team in the entire field next to Kansas. The never-gets-carded group shouldn't be underestimated. —Brad Evans This matchup can also be streamed on the NCAA March Madness Live app and Paramount+. Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Kasparas Jakucionis: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch Maryland vs. Grand Canyon: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Maryland was one of the best teams in the Big Ten this season and is a No. 4 seed, but Grand Canyon is a dangerous Cinderella. The Antelopes are in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in five seasons and knocked off Saint Mary's as a No. 12 seed last year. Can they do it again against the Terrapins? We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Dive into March Madness with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title Strengths: Brawn and balance best sum up the Crab Five's scoring abilities. Derik Queen and Julian Reese are interior bruisers who comprise arguably one of the best frontcourts in the country. The dynamic duo is an absolute load to contain. They're highly active on the glass, execute efficiently in the back-down game and often rock rims with thunderous dunks. Maryland's mashers are flanked by sharpshooters Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel, a trio who greatly elevated their games down the regular-season homestretch. Over the Terps' final 10 pre-tourney games, they converted a sensational 38.0 percent from distance. Also dedicated defenders, they enter the Dance ranked top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Advertisement Weaknesses: Whether examining Maryland's advanced metrics at KenPom or BartTorvik, the prominent color highlights are green, green and more green. On paper, the Terrapins show few, if any, glaring weaknesses. One nitpick would be their depth. At No. 303 in bench minutes, according to KenPom, they must avoid foul trouble. Interestingly, despite the stellar play of Queen and Reese, they ranked only No. 15 in the Big Ten regular season in 2-point percentage offense. They also slotted near the bottom of the league in assists-to-field goals made. Again, considering they have only three losses since early January, there isn't much to fuss about. Outlook: Thought to be competitive, though not a Big Ten contender, in the preseason, Maryland has greatly exceeded expectations. It enters the postseason sizzling on all fronts. Its execution throughout February and early March was generally clean and highly efficient across the board. As someone who holds a betting slip for the Terps to visit the Alamo and the Final Four at +1300, I don't need to be convinced of their potential. Kevin Willard has the warriors to cash this wagering enthusiast's ticket, and presumably Scott Van Pelt's. They unquestionably have the goods to bloody non-believers' brackets. —Brad Evans Outlook: Everyone remembers the famous Bryce Drew shot that sunk Ole Miss during his playing days at Valparaiso. Fans of the Madness have it stained on the cerebral cortex. GCU's current head honcho is hoping for another memorable March moment. His 'Lopes are one of the field's stiffest defensive squads. On the season, they rank No. 20 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, conceding a mere 46.4 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s. They also thrive on unforced errors. Over 20 percent of opponent possessions resulted in a turnover. Trotting out a sizable frontcourt for a mid-major at 6-foot-7 (Tyon Grant-Foster), 6-foot-8 (JaKobe Coles) and 6-foot-10 (Duke Brennan), the Phoenix area reps can hang with high majors on the glass. Self-inflicted wounds, however, hindered it often and it will need to ramp up its arc execution (31.5 3-point percentage), but GCU's stupendous defense and consistent free-throw conversions has it in play to potentially bloody brackets. —Brad Evans (Photo of Derik Queen: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch Ole Miss vs. North Carolina: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
North Carolina is fresh off trouncing San Diego State in the First Four. Did that win alleviate any concerns about the Tar Heels' spot in this NCAA Tournament? That's a different argument, but the Tar Heels are favored against Ole Miss in Friday's first-round game. We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Dive into March Madness with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title Strengths: The gents from Oxford have the ability to score in bunches. Yes, they ranked above No. 240 in effective field goal percentage offense over the regular season's final month, but on a points per possession basis, they were significantly better (1.183). Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are accurate marksmen who both shoot over 38 percent from distance. Malik Dia, Dre Davis and sixth man Jaemyn Brakefield are significant reasons why the Rebels are top-25 nationally in near proximity percentage, according to Haslametrics. Defensively, they thrive on applying pressure and traps. On the season, they forced an opponent turnover on over 20 percent of their possessions. Those mistakes often led to conversions in transition. Preferring a brisk pace, Beard's experienced bunch aims to exhaust. Advertisement Weaknesses: Checking in at No. 329 in effective height, Ole Miss doesn't exactly trot out dudes capable of reaching the top shelf. Its lack of size is a glaring flaw. Outmuscled repeatedly in the regular season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 225 in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounding percentage. As proven by Auburn, Memphis, Mississippi State and others, they can get destroyed on the glass. Also inadequate defending the perimeter over its final 10 games (39.4 3-point percentage allowed), they're flammable in several unfortunate areas. Outlook: As witnessed at previous stops, Beard is capable of invigorating teams widely perceived as average and guiding them to previously believed unreachable territory. This Ole Miss club, however, throws soft hands in the interior. Bullying frontcourts will brutalize it. That weakness and a crumbling perimeter D has the Rebels on upset alert. The advanced data sketches a grim picture. —Brad Evans Strengths: Shifting into high gear and sprinting up the floor is North Carolina's game. It's a fast-paced and well-oiled offensive machine equipped with multiple engine-revving scorers. In their last nine regular-season games (7-2), the Tar Heels ranked No. 11 in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 55.3 percent on 2-pointers and an outlandish 42.6 percent on 3s. On the season, RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Drake Powell and Jae'Lyn Withers all netted at least 35 percent from distance. Also tenacious on the glass, UNC ranked inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage since February 1. Weaknesses: Carolina's defense couldn't stop a toddler from scoring on a Little Tikes hoop. Its questionable rotations, wide driving lanes and general passive manner are why the Heels ranked a miserable No. 282 in effective field goal percentage defense over the regular season's final month. Most horrendously, they allowed 39.3 percent on 3s during that span to rank a hideous No. 338 nationally. With no player over 6-foot-9 logging 40 percent of the team's minutes, Michael Jordan U's thin frontcourt can also be brutalized at times. Advertisement Outlook: North Carolina is more deserving of the NIT. Sure, it's a brand name that has cranked out numerous legends over the years, but this mediocre bunch lacks the defense and height to compete beyond Round 1. There are better double-digit sleepers to advance bracket lines. As good as the Tar Heels are offensively, they simply have too many flaws in critical categories. —Brad Evans (Photo of Elliot Cadeau: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch Memphis vs. Colorado State: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Memphis racked up 29 wins and the AAC tournament title to earn a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Colorado State also made a run through the Mountain West tournament to book its place in the Big Dance. Colorado State is actually favored despite being a No. 12 seed. We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Dive into March Madness with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title Strengths: You may be surprised to hear this, but Memphis has one of the best backcourts in all of college basketball. It starts with PJ Haggerty, a big-time scorer who is one of the top guards in the country at getting to the foul line. He gives the Tigers their high floor, while Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers give them their ceiling. Both Hunter and Rogers are capable of going for 25 points, and the trio is why Memphis is one of the nation's most dangerous 3-point shooting teams at nearly 39 percent accuracy. There is a reason to be worried here. Hunter injured his foot in the semifinals of the AAC tournament and did not play in the final. His status for the tournament is in jeopardy. The flip side is the space that gets created in the paint by the threat beyond the arc has allowed Dain Dainja to develop into one of the better frontcourt weapons. A refrigerator with ballerina feet, Dainja has a soft touch around the basket, and his post moves have created an entirely different way for the Tigers to win games. Advertisement Weaknesses: One of the trends in college basketball is for teams to focus on dominating in three key areas: shooting the 3, forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle. In short, the theory is that doing so maximizes the number of offensive possessions available and the expected points per shot on those possessions. Memphis is an elite 3-point shooting team, but it ranks outside the top 275 in turnover rate and the defensive rebounding percentage. If the Tigers run into a team that can pressure and get to the offensive glass, they will be in trouble. Outlook: The NCAA Tournament is based on matchups, draws and, frankly, a little bit of luck. If you are a No. 3 seed in a region where the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds get upset in the first weekend, you're lucky. If you end up in a region with a bunch of teams you match up well against, you have a better chance of making a deep run than someone who doesn't. Memphis is a team that, on paper, looks to be matchup-dependent. Texas A&M, St. John's, Houston and teams of that ilk can give the Tigers some problems. At the same time, they have three players on the perimeter who are capable of winning a game all on their own. Wins over Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson and Ole Miss weren't flukes. A Final Four is a big ask, but Memphis certainly can make some noise and get to a second weekend. —Rob Dauster Strengths: On offense, the Rams lower their heads, charge hard and send opponents flying. Hotter than a sunbaked blacktop in mid-July, they finished the last month of the regular season No. 7 nationally in effective field goal percentage offense, shooting 53.1 percent on 2-pointers and an absolutely bananas 43.0 percent on 3s. Clifford is the straw who stirs the drink. Blessed with an all-around scoring skill set, he racked 25-point performances regularly. Colorado State is a strong pick-and-pop squad with Jalen Lake, Kyan Evans and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson routinely inflicting damage, and it has a tremendous rebounder in Rashaan Mbemba. He and Clifford are major reasons why CSU ranks top-20 in defensive rebounding percentage over the entire season. Advertisement Weaknesses: Defense isn't one of State's signature characteristics. In its last 10 regular-season games, it checked in at a terribly bland No. 181 in effective field goal percentage defense. Most alarmingly, it ranked outside the top 220 in 3-point percentage D, surrendering close to 36 percent. Also, the Rams are often too sloppy. Over their final 10 games before the postseason, they coughed up the rock on nearly 18 percent of their possessions. Playing composed must live at the top of their priority checklist. Outlook: For teams firmly sitting on the bubble, Colorado State's automatic berth triggered tears. An 11th-hour entrant, the Rams shouldn't be taken lightly. Clifford is a pro — a top NBA prospect who is projected to be drafted in the first round. His shot creation, versatility and finishing talents are unquestionably spectacular. Overall, with a penchant for 3-point bombardments and glass waxings, CSU could be a Sweet 16 sleeper. Party on, Fort Collins. —Brad Evans Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo credit: David Becker / Getty Images)
New York Times
21-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch Mississippi State vs. Baylor: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
Mississippi State is one of 14 teams from the SEC to make the NCAA Tournament, looking for its first win in the tourney since 2008. Baylor, four years removed from its first national title, is looking for its 20th win, which would mark the seventh straight season of reaching that milestone. We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Own your bracket pool with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title | Best bracket names Strengths: Chris Jans' junkyard dogs possess considerable size. They're 6-foot-4 or taller at shooting guard, on the wing and across the frontline. It's no shock they're one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the field, generating a second chance on 34.4 percent of their possessions. Stretch Armstrongs RJ Melendez and KeShawn Murphy also steadily rack shots within 15 feet. Both are major reasons why MSU ranks top-80 nationally in 2-point percentage offense. Generally in control due to the crafty handles of Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs commit few turnovers. Conversely, they coax numerous mistakes, as evidenced by their No. 81 slotting in defensive turnover rate in the regular season. Advertisement Weaknesses: The defensive inadequacies are alarming and apparent. MSU has a tendency to overcommit, leading to frequent open opponent 3-pointers. Over the last month of the regular season, competitors shot a blistering 38.5 percent from distance against them. Only subpar at challenging hoists inside the arc, the Bulldogs ranked an abhorrent No. 344 in effective field goal percentage in their last 10 games. On the opposite end, their perimeter execution was equally ineffective, ranking No. 330 in 3-point percentage offense. Their lack of conversions at the charity stripe are also inexcusable. State entered the postseason No. 255 in free-throw percentage. Spoiled opportunities in close games are likely to lead to its demise. Outlook: Roll the dice on the representatives from StarkVegas, and your chip stacks could immediately disappear. Yes, Hubbard is a scoring machine who can leave opposing coaches vexed. His dishing and scoring wizardry are well documented. However, the Bulldogs' gashable defense is an unignorable weakness. Save that Milkbone for a more deserving dog. Mississippi State last reached the Round of 32 in 2008. It's doubtful the streak of futility ends. —Brad Evans Strengths: Elite one-and-done talent has been a theme for Scott Drew over the past few years, and this season is no exception. Baylor has one of the nation's best NBA prospects in projected top-10 pick VJ Edgecombe, a 6-foot-5 freshman who is a walking highlight reel. The Bears are also one of the best offensive-rebounding teams, grabbing 36 percent of their misses to rank top-30 nationally. Their team speed stands out when you watch them play. They have athletes all over the floor capable of taking defenders off the dribble when they deploy 6-7 Norchad Omier at the five in small lineups. Another strength is Drew. He's one of six active coaches with a national title on his resume. Advertisement Weaknesses: Baylor lacks size, making it difficult to play consistently good defense. Only one player from its top eight — 6-10 Josh Ojianwuna — is taller than 6-7, and the team's average height of 77 inches ranks 211th in the country. That puts a lot of pressure on the guards to limit paint touches. The Bears are top-20 in offensive efficiency but just top-60 in defensive efficiency, making for a less-than-ideal blueprint for March Madness success. They also rank below 190th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage defense. To make a run, they'll have to correct some of their defensive inefficiencies. Outlook: When playing a team capable of filling it up, Baylor struggles. All but two of its losses (Tennessee and TCU) have come against teams in the top 25 of KenPom's offensive efficiency metric. This team can score, but when that ability is matched, the Bears tend to falter. That could make them an easy out before the second weekend. —Sam Lance This matchup can also be streamed on the NCAA March Madness Live app and Paramount+. Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Josh Hubbard: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
