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USA Today
a day ago
- Sport
- USA Today
CBS analyst predicts potential Red River Showdown in College Football Playoff
Oklahoma and Texas have met on the football field at least once every single year since 1929. The last time they faced each other twice in a season was in 2018 in the Sooners' Big 12 championship win over the Longhorns. But if one CBS Sports football analyst's prediction comes true, the two schools may do so again this season. Bud Elliott, who hosts a show for CBS Sports and 247Sports, released his College Football Playoff predictions on Wednesday. In it, he has the Sooners as the No. 11 seed facing No. 6 Clemson in the first round. Were the Sooners to win that game and Elliott's projection hold, OU would face No. 3 Texas in the national semifinals. To make it to the playoff, Oklahoma would have to outperform its preseason rankings. The Sooners enter the season ranked outside the Top 25 in the first USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. They're barely out of the Top 25, though, picking up the most poll points of any unranked team, checking in at a de facto No. 26. Texas is atop the poll, ranked No. 1 in FBS in the preseason. Last year, Texas rolled over Oklahoma, 34-3, in a season that didn't go the Sooners' way. OU finished 6-7 for the second time in coach Brent Venables' three years. The Longhorns, on the other hand, went 13-3, making the College Football Playoff for the second straight season, ultimately falling in the national semifinals to eventual national champion Ohio State. Those two schools open their regular season against each other this year on August 30 as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country. If the Red River rivals were to meet in the College Football Playoff, it would be a showdown of the two most talked about quarterbacks in the country in 2025, John Mateer and Arch Manning. There will be a ton of buzz surrounding the two signal callers throughout the season, and how they fare against SEC defenses will determine a lot about how the SEC season will go. Texas was picked to win the Southeastern Conference during SEC Media Days. OU was picked 10th in the 16-team league. Oklahoma opens its season August 30 against FCS Illinois State before an opportunity to make a statement comes week two against the Michigan Wolverines. Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.
USA Today
20-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Oklahoma Sooners among teams with a chance to win national title
With the 2025 college football season right around the corner, the time has come once again for CBS Sports and staff writer Bud Elliott to release their Blue-Chip Ratio for this season. Elliott has identified 18 teams that are capable of winning the national championship this season, and the Oklahoma Sooners were once again among the contenders. Elliott has a simple explanation for what his Blue-Chip Ratio is, and how it is used. Teams that have a legitimate chance to contend are a majority of four- and five-star players than not. Elliott says, "This has held true for every modern national champion. And while recruiting rankings aren't perfect, they are extremely effective -- especially when taken in the aggregate." Elliott also explains what the Blue-Chip Ratio is not, and outlines further how the metric has held up for every modern national title winner. Teams can make the College Football Playoff with a low blue-chip ratio, but they're going to have a hard time advancing and winning it all. Elliott also emphasized that transfers are not part of the standard Blue Chip Ratio, and that no team has ever won the national title by building through the portal. OU's Blue-Chip Ratio is 70% in 2025, good for ninth on Elliott's list. The SEC dominates the BCR, with nine of the top 18, and two teams that Elliott believes will make the list next year, in South Carolina and Ole Miss. That's 11 of the top 20 teams in BCR in the country this year. Oklahoma's mark of 70% puts them at sixth in the SEC. Alabama and Ohio State are tied for the top spot with an 89% BCR. When transfers were included, Oklahoma's number drops to 56%, placing them 12th in Elliott's metric and seventh in the SEC. Ohio State leads the way in this category, with an 82% blue-chip ratio. Though the Sooners have had a rough go at things over the past few years, there's still enough talent in the building, according to a metric that has held up for more than a decade, that Oklahoma has what it takes to compete for a title. OU has recruited well for the most part under fourth-year head coach Brent Venables, and they're one of the blue bloods of college football. It's not a surprise to see them on the BCR, as they've been regulars on this list. The 2025 season will go a long way in deciding the future of this program. Venables and Co. can't afford another year like 2022 or 2024. The Sooners have been preparing since the winter to show everybody what they're all about this year. In theory, they've got the pieces to make a run in 2025. Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Aaron on X @Aaron_Gelvin.
USA Today
19-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Florida tied for 11th best blue-chip ratio in college football
The blue-chip ratio isn't a perfect science, but it remains true that each of the last 14 NCAA champions has a roster comprised of at least 50% four- and five-star talents. Bud Elliott of CBS Sports invented the stat over a decade ago, and it has remained a popular projection tool for identifying which teams are true contenders entering the regular season. While any team has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, only 18 have the blue-chip ratio necessary to finish on top. Florida finds itself in a three-way tie for No. 11 on the list, alongside Auburn and Miami, with a 64% blue-chip ratio. Sixteen of the 26 class of 2025 signees are rated four stars or higher, which is just below the four-year average used. Billy Napier might have signed his first top-10 class, but the BCR trend says he's relying a little too heavily on three-star talent to buff the numbers. Signing one or two fewer three stars would have helped the BCR over the next four years, but the potential of adding an undervalued recruit is too high for Napier to ignore. 2025 Blue Chip Ratio Top 18 How has this stat performed in the past? The Blue-Chip Ratio is not... "A requirement to make the College Football Playoff. While related, making the College Football Playoff and winning it are two drastically different accomplishments in terms of difficulty. Schedule strength plays a much bigger role in the former. Plenty of teams outside the BCR threshold made the four-team College Football Playoff (typically getting crushed, by the way), and many more will make the new 12-team field." "A substitute for player development, culture or coaching. All of those elements matter and are necessary to win the national title. The BCR is simply the minimum historical standard of recruiting necessary to win it all." "To be used to pick games. It is not an effective predictive measure in single-game settings." Florida Blue-Chip Ratio history Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.
USA Today
19-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
CBS Sports names Clemson a National Championship contender based off their Blue-Chip Ratio
Clemson football is once again being recognized as a legitimate national title contender heading into the 2025 season, this time by way of the Blue-Chip Ratio—a recruiting-based metric from CBS Sports that identifies the teams most equipped to win it all. According to Bud Elliott, who developed the BCR formula, only 18 programs currently meet the standard for championship contention. That standard is simple: a team must sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting cycles. While Clemson's BCR rating dropped from last year, it still sits at 55%, which is above the 52% mark from the Tigers' 2016 title run, though below the 61% from the 2018 championship team. Blue-Chip Ratio does not include transfer portal additions, focusing solely on high school and JUCO scholarship signees. Elliott explains that while elite programs do use the portal to fill specific needs, sustained success still hinges on consistently signing top-tier talent out of high school. Miami leads all ACC teams with a 64% BCR, followed by Clemson, and then Florida State just under the mark at 54%. Clemson's season opener against LSU will feature two teams on the list—LSU checks in at 73%, seventh overall. The SEC and Big Ten dominate the list with a combined 14 teams, while the Big 12 is shut out entirely. Ohio State, last year's national champion, leads the nation at 89%, tied with Alabama Contact us @Clemson_Wire on X, and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Clemson Tigers news and notes, plus opinions.
