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Winnipeg Free Press
41 minutes ago
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Letters, Aug. 18
Opinion The point of pasture land Re: 'Drought aid misguided' (Letters, Aug. 14) Regarding cattle ranching and drought: to the two readers who responded regarding dried-up pasture land, while meat production does include environmental issues, (as does modern society) if there is a lack of rain for pasture, what makes the letter writers think that vegetables will grow in a drought? Besides, the land given over to cattle is usually substandard for the growth of vegetables, that's why there are cows on it. If one is to criticize those that feed us, it is best to get your facts straight. Gary Billson Winnipeg The letter writers suggested that there are better sectors to provide aid to than the cattle industry. As a former cattle rancher, I find their assertion that the cattle industry is unsustainable to be misguided. The beef industry is not taking high-value land for food production for humans, and the idea that it is a significant contributor to climate change laughable. One of the most important ways to fight climate change is to eat local, not imported foods from the other side of the world. Kerry Arksey Winnipeg On asset preservation Re: Yet another hopeful patch on failing infrastructure (Editorial, Aug. 12) The editorial categorizes remedial work on the Louise Bridge as 'kicking the can down the road for someone else to consider. Really! Perhaps the writers aren't aware of the notion of asset preservation to defer future costs. There are several far more critical portions of Winnipeg's infrastructure constructed in the early 1900s that are still performing well. The Shoal Lake aqueduct, the Branch 1 aqueduct and the Tache pumping station have all been maintained and upgraded as appropriate to the benefit of the citizens of Winnipeg. There are many aspects relating to the decision to repair instead of replacing an asset. Safety is paramount, followed by interruption of service, economics and construction sequencing. This might include integrating construction of a new bridge with the Phase 4 transit master plan. This is a cheap shot at a soft target. Tom Pearson Winnipeg Thinking things through Re: 'Emissions and disagreement' (Letters, Aug. 11); What do we do now regarding emissions? (Think Tank, Aug. 7) Thanks to Joe Leven for his comments on Robert Parsons' article. Just to add: Parsons makes the baffling statement that lower-income Canadians paid more with the carbon price and rebate system (CPRS) than they received. When the CPRS was shelved, a personal income tax rate cut from 15 to 14 per cent was supposed to help with affordability. In fact a recent CD Howe Institute article compared the benefits of the CPRS with the tax rate cut. They found that the lowest-income group is worse off with the tax cut compared with the CPRS with a loss of about $528 for the year. The highest-income groups are much better off with the tax rate cut than the CPRS. I write this not in the hopes that the carbon fee will be reinstated because it won't, but as a note to examine carefully what we are fed. In an effort to continue their enormous profits at the expense of our earth, fossil fuel companies and their representatives have been misleading us about climate change and its solutions for decades. As both writers said, think things through indeed. Lori Bohn Winnipeg Another blow to Lake Winnipeg The next time Republican politicians in Washington or Texas start pointing fingers at Canada over wildfire smoke, they should keep the following in mind as well. It's been reported that two massive dairy farms planned just south of the border in North Dakota could deliver a devastating blow to Lake Winnipeg and its already fragile ecosystem. The operations — one near Abercrombie Township south of Fargo, and another near Hillsboro south of Grand Forks — will generate hundreds of millions of litres of manure annually. That waste could flow upstream into the Red River, threatening to overwhelm one of the world's most endangered lakes and undo decades of restoration work. Be it land, water or air, we share this incredible piece of this precious planet so both USA and Canada are responsible for looking after it for the generations of humans and animals that follow. What else needs to be said ? Lois Taylor Winnipeg The complexities of reading Re: U of W puts post-grad literacy education program on hold (Aug. 5) In reading the article, I was reminded of my own experience in a University of Saskatchewan post-graduate reading specialist program during the early 1970s. One session in particular stands out — we explored the 'Great Debate' in reading instruction, then framed as phonics versus whole word methodology. Decades later, it's striking that the debate continues, albeit in new forms. I've come to believe that the persistence of controversy in reading instruction stems from a simple reality: most people learn to read with relative ease, regardless of the method used. That ease can lead to the assumption that reading itself is not particularly complex. Yet, as with any system, complexity becomes apparent when it fails. When a student struggles to 'catch on,' the intricacies of reading acquisition come into sharp focus. I recall attending a presentation by a neuropsychologist who began by essentially saying, 'I may be able to tell you which parts of the brain are involved in reading, but that alone won't help you teach kids how to read.' Many of us in the room — reading specialists — were disappointed, but it was a valuable reminder: teaching is an art, supported by science. Effective teachers are attuned to the individual needs of their students and adjust instruction accordingly. As a former reading clinician and Reading Recovery teacher, I've worked with many children who struggle with reading. If I've learned anything, it's that each child presents a unique complexity that defies any one-size-fits-all solution. Promising simple answers to a deeply nuanced challenge does a disservice to both educators and students. Edwin Buettner Winnipeg Canada must help in malaria fight Many do not realize that the tiny mosquito has profoundly shaped and even directed human history. A carrier for a variety of diseases, like malaria, this pest has brought down armies and collapsed entire civilizations. It has even shaped human evolution with the emergence of the sickle-cell trait. It is the No. 1 animal killer of humans. As it has in the past, it still wreaks havoc today. Each minute a child dies somewhere from malaria, even though it is both preventable and treatable. A few decades ago the world decided to fight back with the Global Fund, and malaria-related deaths have dropped by almost a third. A new, powerful mRNA vaccine has just been developed. But then along came Trump and the collapse of U.S. funding. Two decades of battle with humanity's greatest enemy is now at risk of being forfeited, with countless more lives lost. This year is the year that funding is supposed to be renewed for this battle, but all there is now is uncertainty. It is critical that Canada pick up the torch dropped by the U.S. and carry on the fight. For humanity's sake. Nathaniel Poole Victoria, B.C.
National Post
4 days ago
- Business
- National Post
Federal government's spending review is 'flawed' and too narrow: report
OTTAWA — The federal government's 'comprehensive spending review' is too narrow and won't save enough tax dollars to put Ottawa back on solid footing, a new report will conclude. Article content The report, to be released Thursday by the C.D. Howe Institute, says the Carney government's spending review will only include about one-third of all federal program spending and is expected to save no more than $22 billion by 2028-29. The think tank says that's less than half the $50 billion in savings that are needed to return federal government coffers to 'a fair and prudent path' that would see Ottawa's debt-to-GDP ratio stop climbing. Article content Article content The report, called 'Federal Expenditure Review: Welcome, But Flawed,' says that the problem with focusing only on limited areas of federal spending is that it reduces the scope for improving the quality of spending and ensures that some programs that endure cuts will be superior to some that aren't touched. Article content Article content It's better to review broadly and eliminate programs that aren't working well, the report says, instead of across-the-board cuts that don't assess program success. John Lester, the report's author, said governments often opt for the across-the-board approach because it's easier than evaluating countless programs and can realize tangible results more quickly. Article content 'You need some time to evaluate those programs,' said Lester, a former federal government economist, during an interview. 'It's a big job.' Article content Lester recommends expanding the review to cover the missing two-thirds of program spending, imposing a multi-year cap on operating costs to deliver immediate restraint, and then assessing programs through a value-for-money lens. He also calls for transparent goals and clear communication to build public consensus around the various options. Article content Article content The government's spending review follows years of hefty deficits that have left Ottawa and future generations with mountains of debt. Article content National Post reported last month on an earlier C.D. Howe report that forecasted that the Carney government is poised to post a massive deficit of more than $92 billion during this fiscal year, almost double what was forecast just a few months ago by a non-partisan officer of Parliament. Article content Just four months ago, the Parliamentary Budget Officer projected that the federal deficit would fall to $50.1 billion during this fiscal year, a slight improvement over the $61.9 billion shortfall recorded in 2023-24. The PBO also said at that time that federal deficits would continue to fall in the ensuring years, unless there were new measures to cut revenue or increase spending.
Globe and Mail
02-08-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Canada Post is a case study in Canadian dysfunctionality
Les Viner was managing partner at Torys LLP for 22 years and was seconded to Canada Post as interim general counsel from October, 2022, to June, 2023. He is a senior fellow with the C.D. Howe Institute. Canada Post, which predates Confederation, is a vital national institution, playing a particularly important role in serving rural, Northern and Indigenous communities across our vast country. But today, Canada Post is effectively insolvent. Indeed, it would have run out of cash had the government not recently extended a billion-dollar lifeline. This situation is no surprise, and it has been developing for a long time. Canada Post has been impeded from adapting to modern business realities because of long-standing labour inflexibility as well as oscillation by prior governments between political indifference and political interference. However Canada Post and its main union, CUPW, resolve their current impasse, a much bigger problem looms for the Crown corporation and the federal government. Explainer: What you need to know about the Canada Post contract dispute William Kaplan, a highly respected mediator and arbitrator, recently examined this stalemate as a commissioner appointed under the Canada Labour Code. In his report this month he described Canada Post as facing an 'existential crisis.' He recommended drastic changes to its operations. And these changes must be made. Our new government said that it will do things differently, promising to act decisively and urgently in charting a new path for our country. It now has a golden opportunity to meet the moment by accepting all of Mr. Kaplan's recommendations and if there is any pushback from any of the parties, by appointing him to do it for them. As letter-mail business continues to erode, the future of Canada Post lies in parcel delivery, which is intensely competitive. Customers expect and demand seven-day-a-week service at competitive prices without undue risk of disruption. Paradoxically, the stakeholders who would be expected to have the keenest interest in ensuring the corporation's viability are blocking the company's ability to succeed. CUPW refuses to allow Canada Post to hire a dedicated force of flexible weekend workers. Meanwhile, workers, who get overtime pay for weekend work, earn more – roughly $30 per hour to start – than their counterparts at unionized competitors and vastly more than their counterparts at non-unionized competitors. As the Kaplan report outlined, those workers with tenure have job security for life, a defined-benefit pension plan, and postretirement benefits indexed to inflation, a multitude of generous leave entitlements, and are paid for eight hours of work whether or not it takes eight hours to complete a route. All these factors make seven-day-a-week parcel delivery impossible to achieve at competitive prices, which means that parcel delivery competitors are taking over most of the market share. Indifference of and interference by prior governments have exacerbated the situation. For example, even though 30 per cent of the thousands of corporate postal outlets classified as rural are now urban or suburban, Canada Post is directed not to close or consolidate any of them. Further, although door-to-door delivery costs 75 per cent more than delivery to community mailboxes, Justin Trudeau's incoming government imposed a moratorium on community mailbox conversions in 2015. The Kaplan report threads the needle. His recommendations include ending the moratoriums on rural post office closings and community mailbox conversions, changing collective agreements to allow for the flexible use of well-paid part-time employees, requiring employees to work the hours for which they are paid, and introducing dynamic routing to adapt routes to daily volumes. His well-reasoned report lays out the path for a future that sustainably preserves the institution of Canada Post and respects labour and other key stakeholders in a fair and balanced approach. Absent urgent structural change, the future of Canada Post will be doomed by private competition, unsustainable demands of labour combined, and no clear directional oversight by the sole shareholder as represented by prior governments. As the world evolved from paper to digital, from letter mail to parcels, and from a relatively benign competitive landscape to an intensively competitive one, politicization of key issues impeded necessary reform, perpetuating a cycle of waste, inefficiency and financial recklessness. Canada Post now loses a billion dollars of taxpayer money each year, and the prognosis is materially worse, absent major change. The operational straitjacket imposed by the union, together with past governments' failure to address the underlying structural issues, mean that Canada Post has effectively been disabled from running an operation that is even remotely commercially sensible. The math simply doesn't work.
Globe and Mail
30-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Cracks in the economy mean rate cuts are coming
Jeremy Kronick is vice-president and director of the Centre on Financial and Monetary Policy at the C.D. Howe Institute, where Steve Ambler, a professor of economics at Université du Québec à Montréal, is the David Dodge Chair in Monetary Policy. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent. Although headline inflation has been at or below target for 9 of the last 11 months, there are some signs of underlying upward pressure on inflation. Also, Canada's economic performance has been more resilient than expected, so the decision made sense. However, some cracks are showing, and the next few months will be telling. We have argued in these pages on many occasions that the data the Bank of Canada receives often tell contradictory stories. The Bank must also account for the fact that its policies affect the economy only after long and variable lags. This lagged effect is important to understand, and we would make the case that while holding made sense today, more rate cuts remain the most likely outcome as we look ahead. Given the lags, the Bank should implement these cuts sooner rather than later. Bank of Canada holds key rate, says economy weathered tariffs better than expected First, let's break down the case to hold steady. The Bank's preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out the more volatile components of inflation like energy, and which supposedly capture the trend in price changes, have remained elevated, stubbornly sitting around 3 per cent since the beginning of the year. GDP growth has continued to surprise on the upside, and the word 'resilience' has been bandied about. In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth was 2.2 per cent, significantly outpacing the Bank's 1.8 per cent forecast. Lastly, although economists expected a flat jobs report in June, the economy created more than 80,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down. However, we think there are reasons to question how truly resilient the economy is. Let's look at these in the reverse order from which we looked at the reasons to hold. While more than 80,000 jobs were created, the gains were dominated by part-time jobs, which increased by 70,000. The results of the most recent Business Outlook Survey by the Bank of Canada suggest that businesses are now placing less weight on the worst-case scenario for the tariff situation. However, uncertainty is still driving their decisions relative to hiring and investment. The majority of firms plan to keep hiring levels where they are and plan no significant investment beyond maintenance of their existing productive capacity. Weak hiring and investment will slow GDP growth. So will a fall in exports, in particular to the U.S. Exports were strong in the early months of 2025 despite the on-again, off-again tariff threats, but this appears to have been the result of Americans front-running more permanent increases in prices of goods and services bought from Canadian businesses. Exports have fallen 27 per cent since their peak in January. This will feed through to the rest of the economy, and whatever trade deal we eventually get is unlikely to be tariff-free on the remaining goods not covered by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. Businesses downbeat but less worried about worst-case tariff scenario, Bank of Canada surveys find The last crack – and perhaps the most important one given the Bank's mandate – is the stubbornness of core inflation. In addition to the 3 and 3.1 per cent reading in June for the two main core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, year-over-year increases in more than 40 per cent of CPI components are above 3 per cent. However, as business investment weakens and consumer confidence continues to worsen (as it did in the Bank's most recent Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations) consumer spending will slow, driving core inflation down. The core inflation measures are supposed to be good indicators of where inflation is headed over the medium term. However, they have been poor predictors over at least the past year. As inflation came down, the core measures increased, and the divergence between headline inflation (1.9 per cent in June) and the two core measures has been more than a full percentage point for three months. The decision to hold steady was understandable. Despite some signs of resilience in the Canadian economy, however, we don't believe it will last much longer. Cracks are beginning to show. Trade deal or not, more rate cuts are coming. Given the lag between changes in monetary policy and their impact on the economy, it is important for the Bank of Canada to make these cuts in timely fashion.
National Post
21-07-2025
- Business
- National Post
The pandemic drove up inflation. How come, years later, we're still paying more?
Article content While the programs broadly succeeded in providing relief to individuals and businesses and creating a cushion for the economy during a crisis, the C.D. Howe Institute noted that injecting that much extra money into an economy while unemployment is low results in inflation. Article content David Andolfatto, chair of the department of economics at the University of Miami and an international fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, said inflation should be expected when governments add that much extra demand to the economy. 'Of course prices went up,' he said. 'There's no such thing as a free lunch. Somebody will have to pay.' Article content And not only do consumers pay higher prices but they must then pay again with the higher interest rates the central bank then implemented to try bringing those prices back down. In 2020, interest rates were down to 0.25 per cent as the Bank of Canada aimed to cushion the blow from the pandemic; by 2023, the rate had risen 20-fold, to five per cent. Article content Jean-Francois Perrault, chief economist at the Bank of Nova Scotia, estimated in a November 2023 report that government spending and pandemic-era transfers to Canadians were responsible for about 42 per cent (200 of the 475 basis points) of the increase in the Bank of Canada's prime interest rate during that period. About one-third of those interest rate hikes can be traced back to provincial governments, he calculated. Article content Since the start of 2023, inflation has remained at less than four per cent, just over the Bank of Canada's preferred band of between one and three per cent, but a big decrease from the peak of pandemic-era inflation. Article content And, at least for now, it's largely under control. Statistics Canada reported last week that Canada's inflation rate accelerated to 1.9 per cent in June, up from 1.7 per cent the previous month. Article content Why have some prices kept rising since the pandemic? Article content The Russian invasion of Ukraine, for example, still hasn't been resolved. Many of the people who started working from home during the pandemic still do so, either part-time or full-time, which puts a little more money in most of their pockets. The glut of baby boomers is also at the stage of life where many are retiring, having saved up their money, and now want to spend it. Article content Article content Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets said consumer markets are also still getting a boost from pent-up demand and extra savings that consumers accumulated during the pandemic. Article content Wages, meanwhile, have actually been growing faster than inflation since mid-2024, so household purchasing power has also increased. Article content In recent months, the tariff wars launched by U.S. President Donald Trump have started to put upward pressure on inflation in both components and finished goods and will continue to do so unless they are resolved. Article content Economists say that prices don't normally drop — or even approach inflation of less than one per cent — unless demand falls because the economy is in a recession or governments adopt severe cost-cutting measures. Article content Neither has happened since the pandemic. The federal government kept running large deficits in spending. And while it has spoken recently about cutting costs in the bureaucracy, it also plans to boost outlays on defence and infrastructure projects.
