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Politico
30-06-2025
- Business
- Politico
How Republicans think they can win the megabill message
TOP LINE So far, public polling has shown that Republicans' megabill is broadly unpopular. But broken down to some of the specific policies, the GOP sees a way forward politically, and party leaders are encouraging their members to lock in and stick to the messaging script. Republican members are getting messaging guidance (and a bit of pressure) in conference meetings, from the National Republican Congressional Committee and from outside conservative groups such as the Club for Growth. In particular, they want Republican members to paint Democrats' 'no' vote on the bill as a tax increase. A May poll commissioned by the Club for Growth showed that 76 percent of the 1,000 likely voters in battleground House districts do not support increased taxes. 'Republicans have to take their policy hat off and put their politics hat on when they start selling the bill, and focus on that,' Club for Growth President David McIntosh told reporters during an event hosted by the group last week. 'You have to pivot to go on offense.' A messaging memo from the NRCC that was put out when the House passed the bill says the same. The megabill bill, they say, 'is more than a messaging opportunity; it's a midterm roadmap.' But just because there's a way forward does not mean it will be easy for the message to land with voters. Already, some Republicans are worried about how proposed Medicaid cuts will impact their constituents back home — such as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who announced on Sunday he would not seek reelection in 2026 and put out a bruising statement over the weekend as the upper chamber voted to advance the bill. 'We can and must do better than this,' Tillis said in a statement, warning that the Senate's proposed Medicaid cuts 'will force the state to make painful decisions.' Regardless of the exact changes that come from the Senate, which are still being hashed out, Democrats plan to lambaste GOP members for their vote on the House version of the bill. Democrats are sure they have the upper hand. With continued negative public polling for the legislation as a whole, the party doesn't think Republicans' strategy will hold, especially in an already uphill midterm cycle. 'Republicans know they're on the wrong side of this fight,' Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a memo on Saturday. 'Vulnerable congressional Republicans can either vote against this bill now, or get voted out in November.' Good Monday morning, I hope you enjoy this last day of June. Reach me: @andrewjfhoward or ahoward@ Days until the AZ-07 primary: 16 Days until the 2025 election: 128 Days until the midterms: 492 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL VIRGINIA SPECIAL — James Walkinshaw, the late Rep. Gerry Connolly's former chief of staff, prevailed in the Democratic primary to fill the vacant northern Virginia seat on Saturday. Walkinshaw primarily fended off two state lawmakers, who both conceded over the weekend. He's expected to carry his primary win to September's general election, given the blue lean of the district. More on the race from Friday's Score. TILLIS IS DONE — Following threats of a primary over his 'no' vote on the megabill Saturday, Tillis said on Sunday he will not seek reelection in 2026. 'In Washington over the last few years, it's become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species,' Tillis said in a statement. Read more from POLITICO's Jordain Carney. … Tillis' seat was already a prime target for Democrats, and a wide-open race could lure some more high-profile candidates, like former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, into the race. Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel is already in the race. BRINGING HOME (THE) BACON — Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is expected to announce that he will not seek reelection as early as Monday, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reports. Bacon is a key GOP centrist in the House and represents one of only three Republican-held districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. His seat was already a top target for Democrats in 2026. … The Democratic primary was starting to heat up before the Bacon news dropped on Friday. Nebraska Democrat Crystal Rhoades, a county court clerk who ran John Ewing Jr.'s winning campaign for Omaha mayor, is exploring a run in the state's 2nd District, potentially joining state Sen. John Cavanaugh. More on the Dem side from the Nebraska Examiner's Juan Salinas II. IN SOUTH DAKOTA — GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson will announce a bid for South Dakota governor Monday, according to two people granted anonymity to speak about private conversations, Lee Hill reports. … South Dakota Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley said he is 'preparing to run' for the House seat, and a new poll from Guidant of 400 South Dakota primary voters shows him as the 'prohibitive frontrunner' over two other likely primary candidates, though a large portion of the electorate was still undecided. PRIMARY WATCH — White House officials will host Kentucky state Sen. Aaron Reed in the coming weeks for a discussion about challenging GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in next year's Republican primary, according to two people granted anonymity to describe the private plans, my colleagues Lisa Kashinsky, Rachael Bade and Ben Jacobs reported Sunday. LEGAL CORNER — The Supreme Court's punt on a Louisiana redistricting case has injected uncertainty into the battle for the House, with one Democratic-held House seat in limbo, your host reported Friday. Because of the state's election timeline, it isn't immediately clear what map will be in use for the midterms. Louisiana's primaries are currently scheduled for April. AZ SPECIAL — 'Gen Z content creator challenges old guard with long-shot run for Congress,' by the Washington Post's Dylan Wells, who went to Tucson, Arizona, to profile Deja Foxx, who is running a longshot bid in the district formerly held by Rep. Raul Grijalva. Grijalva's daughter, Adelita, is also in the race, and Foxx hasn't been afraid to go after her. DEM MOMENTUM — 'Democrats are showing up and seeing major gains in off-cycle elections. Can they keep the trend going through the midterms?' the Washington Post's Lenny Bronner and Nick Mourtoupalas asked on Friday. 'Among all special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris's vote share in 2024 by 13 percentage points, based on Harris-Trump baselines calculated by the Downballot, an election data newsletter. That's the largest shift toward any party in years. In fact, all but four of the 31 special elections have seen movement toward Democrats.' NEVER TOO EARLY — Emerson College is out with an early look at the field for 2028, and right now former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is leading the pack on Democratic side, with Vice President JD Vance out front for the GOP. What does this mean? Well, we're a long way from 2028. CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: 'Dead members of Congress can't stop posting,' by POLITICO's Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Newsom's political future 'practically nonexistent' as LA devolves into riots, social media critics predict
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's floated potential run for the White House in 2028 was likely thwarted by his handling of the anti-ICE riots gripping Los Angeles, conservative social media critics predict. Newsom has been floated as a likely 2028 Democratic contender for the White House as he wraps up his second term as governor in 2026. Riots plaguing the city in response to the Trump administration's efforts to remove illegal immigrants residing in Los Angeles, which come on the heels of massive wildfires that rocked southern California this winter, have left Newsom on precarious political ground, according to conservatives who are balking at his response to the LA chaos. "Gavin Newsom's odds of clinching the 2028 presidential race are practically nonexistent," X user Angela Belcamino posted Monday. "Across the country, Americans are eyeing California's struggles under his watch, convinced he'd unleash the same chaos nationwide if he ever won the White House." "Gavin Newsom's handling of the LA riots should be considered an in-kind contribution to the @JDVance2028 presidential campaign. Newsom is providing a lot of ad material for free," one social media account posted on Sunday. Jonathan Turley: Democrats' Rabid Anti-ice Resistance In La Against Trump Could Backfire "Notice how Newsom has no adverse commentary about the rioters – he saves all his venom for American authorities," author and retired Army Col. James Hutton posted to X Sunday. "This is why he has no chance to be president one day. Most Americans tend to believe in this country." Read On The Fox News App Many critics of the riots unfolding in Los Angeles argued that photos of the scene would live in infamy and dash any hopes Newsom may hold on running for president. Some users remarked that the photos depicting rioters surrounded by flames and smoke while waving a Mexican flag "will cost Newsom his 2028 presidential run," and that the Trump administration "couldn't have asked for better" representation of California politics captured in photos. "Gavin Newsom is refusing to help stop the riots AND denying their existence because he bows to open borders donors... hoping they'll fund his 2028 Presidential run. Do not forget this!," Club for Growth senior analyst Andrew Follett posted to X, accompanied by a photo showing a rioter with a Mexican flag on a motorbike as smoke billowed behind him. California Lt. Governor Says Los Angeles Riots Are 'Generated By Donald Trump' "Newsom 2028 off to a 🔥 start," editor-in-chief of the DC Report Matt Foldi posted, accompanied by a similar photo showing a rioter waving what appeared to be the Mexican flag as a fire raged in front of him. "Gavin Newsom 2028," DC Draino, a popular conservative X account, posted accompanied by a photo of a pair of masked rioters standing on a destroyed car waving the Mexican flag. Newsom spokesperson Lindsey Cobia told Fox News Digital when approached for comment on the matter: "President Trump's actions are straight out of a dictator's playbook. Governor Newsom won't stop protecting California and the rule of law from Trump's unprecedented assault on American freedom. " Newsom is viewed as a potential leader of the Democratic Party as it navigates its future following the disastrous 2024 election cycle that saw President Joe Biden exit the race just over 100 days from Election Day and former Vice President Kamala Harris fail to rally support against now-President Donald Trump. The Democratic governor has not yet said whether he would launch a presidential run in 2028. Ny Times Says 'Real Emergency' Is Trump Sending Troops To Los Angeles Riots broke out in the left-wing city Friday evening after federal law enforcement officials converged on Los Angeles to carry out immigration raids as part of Trump's vow to deport illegal aliens who flooded the nation under the Biden administration. Local leaders such as Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Newsom, however, quickly denounced the raids in public statements while offering words of support for illegal immigrants in the state. Protests over the raids soon devolved into violence as rioters targeted federal law enforcement officials, including launching rocks at officials, as well as videos showing people looting local stores, setting cars on fire and taking over a freeway. Trump announced Saturday that he was deploying 2,000 National Guard members to help quell the violence, bypassing the governor, who typically activates the National Guard and sparking Newsom to file a lawsuit against the Trump administration for efforts to allegedly "federalize the California National Guard." Trump and Newsom have long sparred, stretching back to the first Trump administration, including when Newsom installed coronavirus restrictions in the state during the pandemic, such as mask and vaccine mandates and social distancing rules, as well as Trump slamming Newsom for California's spiraling crime rate as a national crime wave spiked in 2020. Trump also frequently refers to the California Democrat as "Newscum" as an ongoing jab at the governor. The pair, however, have most frequently and recently traded barbs over California's fire response, which came under fierce scrutiny in January when wildfires plagued the Los Angeles area and Trump pinned blame on Newsom. "Governor Gavin Newscum refused to sign the water restoration declaration put before him that would have allowed millions of gallons of water, from excess rain and snow melt from the North, to flow daily into many parts of California, including the areas that are currently burning in a virtually apocalyptic way," Trump posted to Truth Social as the fires raged just weeks ahead of Trump's inauguration. Newsom's Office Compares La Riots Against Federal Agents To Sports Celebrations "He wanted to protect an essentially worthless fish called a smelt, by giving it less water (it didn't work!), but didn't care about the people of California. Now the ultimate price is being paid. I will demand that this incompetent governor allow beautiful, clean, fresh water to FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA! He is the blame for this. On top of it all, no water for fire hydrants, not firefighting planes. A true disaster!" Newsom's office shot back that "there is no such document as the water restoration declaration – that is pure fiction. The Governor is focused on protecting people, not playing politics, and making sure firefighters have all the resources they need." Trump has a long history of putting Newsom's handling of wildfires under the microscope across his first four years in the White House, including in January 2019 when he threatened to cut off federal funds to California if reforms were not made to the state's forest management services. California Republicans Slam Newsom, Bass For Letting La Burn With Riots Amid Trump Immigration Blitz "Billions of dollars are sent to the State of California for Forest fires that, with proper Forest Management, would never happen," he posted to X that year. "Unless they get their act together, which is unlikely, I have ordered FEMA to send no more money. It is a disgraceful situation in lives & money!" Newsom and other Democrats have historically pushed back that wildfires in the state are due to climate change and global warming. "You don't believe in climate change," Newsom shot back at Trump in 2019, for example, after the president slammed him for his wildfire leadership. "You are excused from this conversation." Los Angeles Wildfires: California Gov. Newsom Slammed For 'Sideshow' As He Defends State's Response The riots gripping LA following the massive Palisades wildfires in January stack the odds against a potential Newsom presidential run, other commenters argued on social media. "Let's evaluate this, Gav. First... devastating fires due to you and your state's negligence. Second, riots... once again due to your love for illegals, sanctuary cities, etc. Your aspirations for 2028 have gone up in the flames you are responsible for," one social media commented posted to X on Monday. "The LA fires and the LA riots have burned Newsom's chances of a successful presidential run to the ground," another X user posted. Others on X argued the riots in Los Angeles would help Newsom's chances should he run in 2028. "Trump is making a strong case for Newsom '28," Fox News' Jessica Tarlov posted to article source: Newsom's political future 'practically nonexistent' as LA devolves into riots, social media critics predict
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Clean energy tax credit repeals could cost Utah thousands of jobs, industry group says
WASHINGTON — The massive reconciliation bill making its way through Congress could lead to the loss of thousands of energy-related jobs in Utah, according to a new study released on Tuesday. The report, conducted by the Solar Energy Industries Association, found that the tax bill being considered by lawmakers could eliminate 330,000 industry jobs by 2028, including 2,700 in Utah. The GOP-led reconciliation bill would repeal clean energy tax credits previously passed by the Biden administration through the Inflation Reduction Act as Republicans look to end federal subsidies related to green energy. 'Lost jobs in every single state are a recipe for disaster for American families, businesses, and the U.S. economy,' said SEIA president Abigail Ross Hopper in a statement. 'Axing energy jobs means shuttered U.S. factories, canceled local investments, and energy shortfalls nationwide. We hope that U.S. senators won't let their constituents lose their livelihoods on their watch,' Hopper said. If the tax credits are overhauled, clean energy groups warn that hundreds of factories across the country could be closed and 'erase $286 billion in local investment in American communities.' The IRA creates significant tax credits for renewable energy projects such as solar, wind and geothermal. These Investment Tax Credits incentivize households and businesses to install renewable energy systems by allowing them to deduct a percentage of the cost from federal taxes. However, some Republicans and conservative organizations argue the federal subsidies actually raise energy prices while reducing the reliability of power systems. The Club for Growth has spoken out against green energy subsidies, arguing renewable energy sources struggle to remain competitive with other energy sources without government support. The group has also pointed to studies that show the tax cuts resulting in job growth over the next decade. 'This is an obviously biased report on an industry that is being subsidized by American taxpayers,' David McIntosh, president of Club for Growth, said in a statement to the Deseret News. 'It would be unfortunate if Sen. (John) Curtis put his liberal environmental benefactors above basic economics and good energy policy.' The Club for Growth is targeting Curtis for his efforts to protect green energy tax credits currently on the chopping block in President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.' Curtis is among those pushing to preserve some of those policies, particularly those dealing with nuclear energy, net-zero emissions, battery storage and more. The first-term senator has long centered his climate policies on clean energy solutions, suggesting earlier this week he will push for those changes as the Senate considers the bill. 'We must build a thoughtful, principled bill that doesn't pull the rug out from under American innovators,' a spokesperson for Curtis told the Deseret News. 'Doing otherwise risks freezing investment, delaying domestic production, increasing costs, and forfeiting our energy edge and national security to China and Russia.' Meanwhile, some senators — including Curtis's counterpart, Utah Sen. Mike Lee — have pushed to repeal all green energy tax credits passed under the Inflation Reduction Act. 'The government shouldn't use the tax code to pick winners and losers in the marketplace: Americans should choose what works for them,' Lee, who is chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, told the Deseret News. 'Right now, we're crafting a reconciliation bill that will create tens of thousands of jobs, while ensuring Utah families have reliable, affordable, and abundant energy.' The Senate is set to vote on the reconciliation package in the coming weeks, with Republican leaders pushing to get the bill to Trump's desk before the Fourth of July.
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
After struggling in the Senate, Alabama's Tommy Tuberville launches campaign for governor
Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville's interest in Alabama's gubernatorial campaign has been anything but subtle. The coach-turned-politician has spent recent months telling people on Capitol Hill that he intended to forgo re-election and run for governor, and last week, the Club for Growth's political action committee took the unusual step of endorsing his candidacy — before it was even announced. The question was when, not whether, the GOP senator would kick off his second statewide bid for elected office. That question now has an answer. During a Tuesday afternoon appearance on Fox News, the Republican made it official, announcing that he's ending his congressional career after just one term and running for governor in his adopted home state of Alabama. The on-air comments coincided with the launch of his new campaign website, which leans on the senator's alignment with Donald Trump. Tuberville's chances of success are excellent. While it was widely assumed that Will Ainsworth, Alabama's incumbent lieutenant governor, would succeed term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey, Ainsworth saw the writing on the wall, realized he'd face an uphill fight against Tuberville and bowed out of consideration last week. The senator, in other words, is likely to run unopposed in next year's Republican gubernatorial primary in one of the nation's reddest states. If anyone's is prepared to gamble on the 2026 contest, Tuberville's odds look pretty good. That said, to the extent that merit dictates election outcomes, the senator doesn't have much of a record to run on. Tuberville's 2020 candidacy was an unfortunate indicator of what to expect from his political career. As regular readers may recall, the Alabama Republican settled on a specific kind of strategy that American voters don't generally see from those seeking statewide office: He said very little, did very little and expected to win while maintaining a relatively low public profile. During the GOP primaries, for example, Tuberville refused to debate former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. During the general election, he also refused to debate incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. After struggling to discuss the basics of the Voting Rights Act, the retired coach seemed to retreat even further from microphones. With just a few weeks remaining before Election Day 2020, the Alabama Media Group's Kyle Whitmire noted, 'Tuberville is in hiding.' The columnist added, '[I]f a campaign won't let its candidate speak openly because he can't do so without saying dumb things that hurt his chances of winning the election, what the heck is going to happen when he's in the United States Senate?' As it turns out, we didn't have to wait too long for the answer to come into focus: Tuberville's tenure in the Senate can charitably be described as an embarrassment. The Republican is perhaps best known for becoming the first and only senator in American history to impose a 10-month blockade against confirming U.S. military officials, as part of an anti-abortion fight that he didn't seem to fully understand. The gambit left Tuberville's reputation on Capitol Hill in tatters. Indeed, in the midst of his blockade, several Senate Republicans publicly accused him of, among other things, being dishonest, damaging the military during international crises, assisting U.S. adversaries abroad and relying on tactics that were 'ridiculous' and 'dumb.' But while this failed effort was a stain on Tuberville's career, it was not his only fiasco. Remember when he accused Democrats of partnering with 'a Satanic cult' to destroy America's youth? How about the time he suggested to a group of veterans that he was 'more military' than they were — despite the inconvenient fact that he never actually served in the armed forces? Or maybe the time he said it's not up to senators to 'determine' whether Donald Trump's Cabinet nominees are qualified? Over the course of four years and four months, there are countless related incidents. Upon arriving in Congress in January 2021, the first votes Tuberville cast were against certification of the 2020 presidential election results. Two months later, the Alabama Republican said the three branches of the federal government were the House, the Senate and the White House — he apparently forgot about the judiciary — and talked up government-imposed religious lessons, in defiance of the First Amendment and U.S. Supreme Court rulings. In the months and years that followed, Tuberville became known for election denialism, provocative rhetoric about race, disparaging the U.S. military, struggling with policy details and needlessly giving Russia's Vladimir Putin the benefit of the doubt. All the while, he's faced residency questions he apparently doesn't want to answer — as recently as 2018, the ostensible Alabaman was casting votes in Florida — while engaging in more stock trading than 98% of other members of Congress. If Tuberville makes it to the governor's office next year, it'll be a classic example of a politician failing up. This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tuberville announces Alabama governor run
Sen. Tommy Tuberville is running for Alabama governor in 2026. The Alabama Republican launched his campaign website on Tuesday, ending weeks of speculation about his ambitions for the state's highest office. He's set to officially announce his campaign Tuesday afternoon on Fox News. Tuberville is looking to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Kay Ivey. He is immediately the frontrunner to win the seat in the deep red state, with other potential Republican candidates opting against a campaign. His decision also sets up an open Senate race in Alabama in the midterms. Even before entering the contest, Tuberville's interest in the post had already started to clear the field. GOP groups like the Club for Growth preemptively backed him, and other would-be Republicans candidates like Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth opted out of the race. Tuberville is relatively new to politics, following a long-running college football coaching career at schools including Auburn University and the University of Cincinnati. He beat out former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions for the Republican nomination for Senate in 2020. Painting himself as a political outsider, he received President Donald Trump's endorsement for the seat after the president had grown tired with Sessions. Tuberville then defeated the incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in the 2020 election, putting the seat back into the GOP's hands. Jones won an upset in the 2017 special election after then-senator Sessions left to become Trump's attorney general — making Jones the first Democrat to represent the state in decades. The first-term senator has been a staunch Trump ally since he took office, and is casting his campaign as part of Trump's 'America First' movement. His Senate seat will be one Republicans will fight to keep as they look to maintain their Senate majority in the midterm elections. Jones is rumored to be considering another run for office, with his name being floated for both Senate or governor. One of the biggest questions swirling around Tuberville's upcoming campaign will focus on Alabama's constitution, which has a seven year residency requirement for the governor. Tuberville has defended that he meets the requirements for the office.
