How Republicans think they can win the megabill message
So far, public polling has shown that Republicans' megabill is broadly unpopular.
But broken down to some of the specific policies, the GOP sees a way forward politically, and party leaders are encouraging their members to lock in and stick to the messaging script.
Republican members are getting messaging guidance (and a bit of pressure) in conference meetings, from the National Republican Congressional Committee and from outside conservative groups such as the Club for Growth.
In particular, they want Republican members to paint Democrats' 'no' vote on the bill as a tax increase. A May poll commissioned by the Club for Growth showed that 76 percent of the 1,000 likely voters in battleground House districts do not support increased taxes.
'Republicans have to take their policy hat off and put their politics hat on when they start selling the bill, and focus on that,' Club for Growth President David McIntosh told reporters during an event hosted by the group last week. 'You have to pivot to go on offense.'
A messaging memo from the NRCC that was put out when the House passed the bill says the same. The megabill bill, they say, 'is more than a messaging opportunity; it's a midterm roadmap.'
But just because there's a way forward does not mean it will be easy for the message to land with voters.
Already, some Republicans are worried about how proposed Medicaid cuts will impact their constituents back home — such as North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who announced on Sunday he would not seek reelection in 2026 and put out a bruising statement over the weekend as the upper chamber voted to advance the bill.
'We can and must do better than this,' Tillis said in a statement, warning that the Senate's proposed Medicaid cuts 'will force the state to make painful decisions.'
Regardless of the exact changes that come from the Senate, which are still being hashed out, Democrats plan to lambaste GOP members for their vote on the House version of the bill.
Democrats are sure they have the upper hand. With continued negative public polling for the legislation as a whole, the party doesn't think Republicans' strategy will hold, especially in an already uphill midterm cycle.
'Republicans know they're on the wrong side of this fight,' Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said in a memo on Saturday. 'Vulnerable congressional Republicans can either vote against this bill now, or get voted out in November.'
Good Monday morning, I hope you enjoy this last day of June. Reach me: @andrewjfhoward or ahoward@politico.com.
Days until the AZ-07 primary: 16
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Days until the midterms: 492
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CAMPAIGN INTEL
VIRGINIA SPECIAL — James Walkinshaw, the late Rep. Gerry Connolly's former chief of staff, prevailed in the Democratic primary to fill the vacant northern Virginia seat on Saturday. Walkinshaw primarily fended off two state lawmakers, who both conceded over the weekend. He's expected to carry his primary win to September's general election, given the blue lean of the district. More on the race from Friday's Score.
TILLIS IS DONE — Following threats of a primary over his 'no' vote on the megabill Saturday, Tillis said on Sunday he will not seek reelection in 2026. 'In Washington over the last few years, it's become increasingly evident that leaders who are willing to embrace bipartisanship, compromise, and demonstrate independent thinking are becoming an endangered species,' Tillis said in a statement. Read more from POLITICO's Jordain Carney.
… Tillis' seat was already a prime target for Democrats, and a wide-open race could lure some more high-profile candidates, like former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, into the race. Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel is already in the race.
BRINGING HOME (THE) BACON — Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is expected to announce that he will not seek reelection as early as Monday, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill reports. Bacon is a key GOP centrist in the House and represents one of only three Republican-held districts that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. His seat was already a top target for Democrats in 2026.
… The Democratic primary was starting to heat up before the Bacon news dropped on Friday. Nebraska Democrat Crystal Rhoades, a county court clerk who ran John Ewing Jr.'s winning campaign for Omaha mayor, is exploring a run in the state's 2nd District, potentially joining state Sen. John Cavanaugh. More on the Dem side from the Nebraska Examiner's Juan Salinas II.
IN SOUTH DAKOTA — GOP Rep. Dusty Johnson will announce a bid for South Dakota governor Monday, according to two people granted anonymity to speak about private conversations, Lee Hill reports.
… South Dakota Republican Attorney General Marty Jackley said he is 'preparing to run' for the House seat, and a new poll from Guidant of 400 South Dakota primary voters shows him as the 'prohibitive frontrunner' over two other likely primary candidates, though a large portion of the electorate was still undecided.
PRIMARY WATCH — White House officials will host Kentucky state Sen. Aaron Reed in the coming weeks for a discussion about challenging GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in next year's Republican primary, according to two people granted anonymity to describe the private plans, my colleagues Lisa Kashinsky, Rachael Bade and Ben Jacobs reported Sunday.
LEGAL CORNER — The Supreme Court's punt on a Louisiana redistricting case has injected uncertainty into the battle for the House, with one Democratic-held House seat in limbo, your host reported Friday. Because of the state's election timeline, it isn't immediately clear what map will be in use for the midterms. Louisiana's primaries are currently scheduled for April.
AZ SPECIAL — 'Gen Z content creator challenges old guard with long-shot run for Congress,' by the Washington Post's Dylan Wells, who went to Tucson, Arizona, to profile Deja Foxx, who is running a longshot bid in the district formerly held by Rep. Raul Grijalva. Grijalva's daughter, Adelita, is also in the race, and Foxx hasn't been afraid to go after her.
DEM MOMENTUM — 'Democrats are showing up and seeing major gains in off-cycle elections. Can they keep the trend going through the midterms?' the Washington Post's Lenny Bronner and Nick Mourtoupalas asked on Friday. 'Among all special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris's vote share in 2024 by 13 percentage points, based on Harris-Trump baselines calculated by the Downballot, an election data newsletter. That's the largest shift toward any party in years. In fact, all but four of the 31 special elections have seen movement toward Democrats.'
NEVER TOO EARLY — Emerson College is out with an early look at the field for 2028, and right now former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is leading the pack on Democratic side, with Vice President JD Vance out front for the GOP. What does this mean? Well, we're a long way from 2028.
CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: 'Dead members of Congress can't stop posting,' by POLITICO's Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing.
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