Latest news with #DylanFederico
Newsweek
5 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Dexter Update as Chances of Cyclone Changes
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The chances of invest 93L—a disturbance over the Gulf Coast with the potential to become Tropical Storm Dexter—developing into a cyclone have fallen, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Why It Matters The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month. What To Know As of early Wednesday, the NHC was giving the system a "medium," 40 percent chance of cyclone development. This was a four-fold increase from Monday, when chances were reported at 10 percent. But in an update on Thursday morning, the NHC had downgraded chances to 30 percent, or "low." This NHC map highlights the area in question. This NHC map highlights the area in question. National Hurricane Center "Recent satellite wind data, in combination with surface and radar observations, indicate the broad area of low pressure located over the far northern portion of the Gulf remains quite disorganized," the agency said. "In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the broad center." "While some additional development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are decreasing." However, the NHC added that regardless of whether the system develops further, it could bring heavy rainfall and localized flash-flooding to parts of the north-central Gulf Coast through Friday. The agency gave a 30 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours. What People Are Saying Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X, on Wednesday: "Invest #93L looks like a plate of scrambled eggs this morning on satellite. I thought it made a run at depression status yesterday, but this thing is a mess and has a long way to go before being named #Dexter. AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, in an advisory shared with Newsweek on Wednesday: "Flash flooding is a major concern through the end of the week into the weekend as this tropical rainstorm moves across the Gulf coast and inches closer to Louisiana. "Do not wait for this tropical rainstorm to strengthen to a named tropical storm before taking action. We expect serious flooding issues regardless, even if does not get an official name designation." What Happens Next Forecasts are subject to change, and meteorologists will continue to monitor the system. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, while the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
Newsweek
6 days ago
- Climate
- Newsweek
Tropical Storm Dexter Update: Spaghetti Models Show Louisiana Landfall
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Forecast models indicate that a disturbance crossing over Florida, with the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Dexter, could move towards Louisiana this week, meteorologists say. Why It Matters The Atlantic Hurricane season has seen three named systems so far in 2025: Andrea, Barry and Chantal. Chantal brought heavy rain and flooding to North Carolina earlier this month. What To Know Spaghetti models shared by meteorologist Dylan Federico on the social platform X showed the system tracking west from Florida along the Gulf Coast towards Louisiana. NEW MODELS bring Invest #93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models. A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named #Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling.#TropicalUpdate 🌀 — Dylan Federico (@DylanFedericoWX) July 16, 2025 "NEW MODELS bring Invest 93L straight into Louisiana on Friday. Keep in mind if the center reforms south tonight so will the models," Federico wrote. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the disturbance—known as Invest 93L—is moving west across the Florida Panhandle, bringing "disorganized" showers and thunderstorms south of its center. An NHC map highlights the area in question. An NHC map highlights the area in question. National Hurricane Center "This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday," the agency said in an update early Wednesday morning. "If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week." The agency reports a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next seven days, with the same likelihood projected for the next 48 hours. What People Are Saying Meteorologist Dylan Federico said on X, Tuesday: "A track further offshore would mean it's more likely this gets named Dexter. I still think a tropical storm is the ceiling." The National Hurricane Center said on X, Tuesday: "A low pressure area (Invest 93L) could emerge over the far northeastern & north-central Gulf, approaching Louisiana on Thursday as it moves westward. Environmental conditions over the Gulf are generally favorable, and a tropical depression could form if the system moves far enough offshore over the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall/flooding is the primary hazard from central Florida westward through portions of Louisiana." Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy said on X, Tuesday: "Dexter seeming like more of a possibility over the next two days. Developing in the Gulf west of Florida and then potentially making landfall around Southern Louisiana. A lot can still change but already parts of LA have a high risk for flooding rain!" AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski told Newsweek on Monday: "There's the potential this feature could become nearly stationary late this week near southeastern Louisiana along the central Gulf Coast. If this happens, there could be a greater concern for heavy, flooding rainfall. Even if this system fails to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, we feel there is still a flooding risk due to heavy rainfall." What Happens Next Meteorologists will continue to track the system. Forecasts are sometimes subject to change. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and lasts until November 30.
Newsweek
02-07-2025
- Climate
- Newsweek
Hurricane Flossie Breaking Records—What To Know
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season continues to churn out storms, with Hurricane Flossie becoming the earliest F-named storm on record. Why It Matters The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which started on June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the Eastern Pacific season in late May when it formed off the coast of Mexico and brought heavy rain across the U.S. Southwest. Alvin was followed by Hurricane Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme, Tropical Storm Dalila and Hurricane Erick. A forecast path shows Hurricane Flossie moving away from Mexico. The storm will soon begin rapid weakening. A forecast path shows Hurricane Flossie moving away from Mexico. The storm will soon begin rapid weakening. National Hurricane Center What To Know Flossie strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday. As of the most recent update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), maximum sustained winds are 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane. "The average for the first F-named storm is August 3," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek. "We are basically over a month ahead of schedule for the Eastern Pacific season, so it has certainly gotten off to a hot start." Although the storm is trekking further into the ocean, a public advisory issued by the NHC said that heavy rainfall was possible in the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through Wednesday. In addition to heavy rainfall, dangerous swells and life-threatening rip currents generated by the major hurricane could impact coastal southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the next few days. "Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day," the NHC forecast said. In addition to Flossie, the NHC is monitoring another disturbance in the Eastern Pacific that has a 50 percent chance of formation within the next seven days. AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes. What People Are Saying Hurricane specialist and meteorologist Dylan Federico, on Facebook on Tuesday night: "FLOSSIE A MAJOR - The eastern Pacific Basin continues its record breaking 2025 Hurricane Season, with Flossie being the earliest F storm on record, and now a major hurricane. The Eastern Pacific typically sees its second major around August 15th, so we're way ahead of schedule. The good news is Flossie is going out to sea and is fish food!" AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "We expected it to be an active season this year across the Eastern Pacific. We have already seen two major hurricanes. The average second major hurricane is August 15. So, we are a month and a half ahead of schedule." The NHC, in a public advisory: "Outer bands of Hurricane Flossie continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday. Localized flash flooding is possible. Large swells generated by Flossie will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days." What Happens Next Flossie is expected to begin weakening soon. There's a chance another tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific in the next week. If it does, it will be named Gil.
