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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Rural consumption to drive India's GDP growth this fiscal year, economists say
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Rural consumption is poised to remain a bright spot in the Indian economy, supporting growth in the ongoing fiscal year, economists said after fourth-quarter GDP growth beat estimates. India's economic growth rose to a one-year high of 7.4% in the January-to-March quarter, higher than forecast, data showed on Friday. Personal consumption grew 6% during the three months after an 8.1% rise in the previous quarter. For the fiscal year ending March, inflation-adjusted consumption growth of 7.1% outpaced broader economic expansion of 6.5%, reflecting a rural consumption recovery, Citibank said in a note on Friday. "High frequency data indicates rural demand is faring better even as urban demand is patchy," said A. Prasanna, head of research at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership. "Given rural consumption is a bigger part of overall consumption pie compared to urban consumption and was generally hurting from Covid shock in last few years, it is likely consumption growth will stay resilient." Above-average monsoon rains this year and the resultant rise in farm incomes are likely to boost rural demand as will easing inflation, economists said. Tractor and two-wheeler sales, the bellwether of demand in rural India, have been rising in recent quarters while sales of fast-moving consumer goods have been robust. Rural wage growth, adjusted for inflation, is at its highest in four years, data from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership showed, with demand for jobs under a rural jobs scheme has fallen in recent months, as per a recent JP Morgan report. Over the last two fiscal years, consumption growth in India has risen while investment growth has eased, and the trend may continue, Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, told Trading India on Monday. "For consumption, to be honest, rural demand can be a source of hope... I think consumption growth can beat GDP growth, but not by a large gap." India's central bank sees economic growth at 6.5% this fiscal year. GROWTH RISKS Even as the rural economy hums along, global uncertainties could hold back wider momentum at a time when trade wars and geopolitical tensions threaten global growth and financial flows. "While India is a domestically-oriented economy, it will not be entirely insulated from a global growth slowdown," said Aastha Gudwani, chief India economist at Barclays. "Given the Indian economy's domestic orientation, where private consumption accounts for more than 55% of GDP, domestic demand is indeed the key driver," she said. India's corporate capex is likely to remain tentative amid heightened uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs and the uncertainty on urban consumption outlook, Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, said. Good monsoon rains, along with a pickup in government spending and rate cuts by the central bank could offset some of this hit to growth, economists said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economic Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Rural consumption to drive India's GDP growth this fiscal year, economists say
Rural consumption is poised to remain a bright spot in the Indian economy, supporting growth in the ongoing fiscal year, economists said after fourth-quarter GDP growth beat estimates. India's economic growth rose to a one-year high of 7.4% in the January-to-March quarter, higher than forecast, data showed on Friday. Personal consumption grew 6% during the three months after an 8.1% rise in the previous quarter. For the fiscal year ending March, inflation-adjusted consumption growth of 7.1% outpaced broader economic expansion of 6.5%, reflecting a rural consumption recovery, Citibank said in a note on Friday. "High frequency data indicates rural demand is faring better even as urban demand is patchy," said A. Prasanna, head of research at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership. "Given rural consumption is a bigger part of overall consumption pie compared to urban consumption and was generally hurting from Covid shock in last few years, it is likely consumption growth will stay resilient." Above-average monsoon rains this year and the resultant rise in farm incomes are likely to boost rural demand as will easing inflation, economists said. Tractor and two-wheeler sales, the bellwether of demand in rural India, have been rising in recent quarters while sales of fast-moving consumer goods have been robust. Rural wage growth, adjusted for inflation, is at its highest in four years, data from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership showed, with demand for jobs under a rural jobs scheme has fallen in recent months, as per a recent JP Morgan report. Over the last two fiscal years, consumption growth in India has risen while investment growth has eased, and the trend may continue, Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, told Trading India on Monday. "For consumption, to be honest, rural demand can be a source of hope... I think consumption growth can beat GDP growth, but not by a large gap." India's central bank sees economic growth at 6.5% this fiscal year. Even as the rural economy hums along, global uncertainties could hold back wider momentum at a time when trade wars and geopolitical tensions threaten global growth and financial flows. "While India is a domestically-oriented economy, it will not be entirely insulated from a global growth slowdown," said Aastha Gudwani, chief India economist at Barclays. "Given the Indian economy's domestic orientation, where private consumption accounts for more than 55% of GDP, domestic demand is indeed the key driver," she said. India's corporate capex is likely to remain tentative amid heightened uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs and the uncertainty on urban consumption outlook, Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, said. Good monsoon rains, along with a pickup in government spending and rate cuts by the central bank could offset some of this hit to growth, economists said.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Rural consumption to drive India's GDP growth this fiscal year, economists say
Rural consumption is poised to remain a bright spot in the Indian economy, supporting growth in the ongoing fiscal year, economists said after fourth-quarter GDP growth beat estimates. India's economic growth rose to a one-year high of 7.4% in the January-to-March quarter, higher than forecast, data showed on Friday. Personal consumption grew 6% during the three months after an 8.1% rise in the previous quarter. For the fiscal year ending March, inflation-adjusted consumption growth of 7.1% outpaced broader economic expansion of 6.5%, reflecting a rural consumption recovery, Citibank said in a note on Friday. "High frequency data indicates rural demand is faring better even as urban demand is patchy," said A. Prasanna, head of research at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership. "Given rural consumption is a bigger part of overall consumption pie compared to urban consumption and was generally hurting from Covid shock in last few years, it is likely consumption growth will stay resilient." Live Events Above-average monsoon rains this year and the resultant rise in farm incomes are likely to boost rural demand as will easing inflation, economists said. Tractor and two-wheeler sales, the bellwether of demand in rural India, have been rising in recent quarters while sales of fast-moving consumer goods have been robust. Rural wage growth, adjusted for inflation, is at its highest in four years, data from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership showed, with demand for jobs under a rural jobs scheme has fallen in recent months, as per a recent JP Morgan report. Over the last two fiscal years, consumption growth in India has risen while investment growth has eased, and the trend may continue, Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ, told Trading India on Monday. "For consumption, to be honest, rural demand can be a source of hope... I think consumption growth can beat GDP growth, but not by a large gap." India's central bank sees economic growth at 6.5% this fiscal year. Growth risks Even as the rural economy hums along, global uncertainties could hold back wider momentum at a time when trade wars and geopolitical tensions threaten global growth and financial flows. "While India is a domestically-oriented economy, it will not be entirely insulated from a global growth slowdown," said Aastha Gudwani, chief India economist at Barclays. "Given the Indian economy's domestic orientation, where private consumption accounts for more than 55% of GDP, domestic demand is indeed the key driver," she said. India's corporate capex is likely to remain tentative amid heightened uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs and the uncertainty on urban consumption outlook, Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank , said. Good monsoon rains, along with a pickup in government spending and rate cuts by the central bank could offset some of this hit to growth, economists said. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )
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Business Standard
15-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
RBI pushes lenders to revive funding market vital for monetary policy
A dwindling borrowing market used mainly by Indian banks is showing signs of life as authorities champion its usage to lenders, according to people familiar with the matter. Average daily volumes in the interbank call market have climbed to their highest in about five years this month, despite a plethora of often more attractive alternatives. Officials at the Reserve Bank of India have been asking dealers at banks to use the facility to keep its relevance to monetary policy alive, the people said, who asked not to be named, citing private discussions. While overall money-market turnover has risen to an average $70 billion a day, interbank trades account for just 2 per cent of that, down from 20 per cent a decade ago. That's as non-bank players like mutual funds and insurers use other venues for funding, contributing to the market's waning significance. The call money market is a vital component of India's financial plumbing, allowing the central bank to gauge how well its interest rate changes are being reflected in the broader economy. Shrinking volumes threaten to disrupt this process, weakening the link between policy rates and real-world borrowing costs, and by extension, the pricing of key financial derivatives. 'The weighted average call rate is the best operational target for monetary policy, despite dwindled share of call market volumes in overnight markets,' said Abhishek Upadhyay, an economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership. 'It represents the balance between demand and supply of bank reserves that is controlled by the RBI.' An email sent to the RBI seeking comment on the matter wasn't immediately answered. Daily average volumes in the call market are about Rs 16,490 crore ($1.9 billion) so far this month, Bloomberg-compiled data show. That's the highest in more than five years. Volumes reached 200 billion rupees on May 5, the highest since March 2020. To be sure, reviving the market comes at a cost: unsecured borrowing is typically more expensive and exposes lenders to credit risk. The trend away from the bank-to-bank call market isn't unique to India. Since the 2008 financial crisis and the stricter banking rules that followed, several countries embraced secured markets. For instance, the US replaced the scandal-hit Libor with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. In India, the transition comes as players like mutual funds and insurers — whose assets have ballooned since the pandemic — are borrowing in the secured funding markets such as repo. The waning impact of the interbank rate has reduced the effectiveness of its link to the policy rate, making it harder to price loans and other financial products. This has spurred the central bank to push for a new benchmark — the Secured Overnight Rupee Rate (SORR) — which may eventually replace the Mumbai Interbank Outright Rate for pricing derivatives. The transition will depend on liquidity building up in the products tied to the new rate, according to the RBI. About 86 per cent of India's Rs 100 trillion outstanding in interest interest rate derivatives are overnight indexed swaps, tied to MIBOR, according to the central bank. The SORR, based on secured overnight repo trades that account for 98 per cent of activity, offers greater reliability and transparency.
Business Recorder
28-04-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India rupee, bonds to be guided by fallout from Kashmir attack
MUMBAI: The path for Indian rupee and government bonds this week hinges on the geopolitical fallout from the militant attack in Kashmir, traders said. India has said there were Pakistani elements in the April 22 attack, when militants shot 26 men in a meadow in the Pahalgam area of Kashmir, and Islamabad has denied any involvement. The nuclear-armed nations have unleashed a raft of measures against each other, with India keeping a critical river water-sharing treaty in abeyance and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines, among other steps. Fears of fresh tensions with long-time rival and neighbour Pakistan spooked markets last week. On Friday, the rupee swung between 85.09 and 85.65 to the dollar and closed at 85.45. Stocks declined 0.7%-0.9% while the 10-year benchmark bond yield rose 4 basis points to end at 6.3645%. Friday's trade underscored the market's concern over the potential fallout from the Kashmir attack, Kunal Kurani, Assistant Vice President at Mecklai Financial, said. 'For now, the rupee's near-term range is 85.00 to 85.70. That could shift if there are significant developments.' Currency traders will also keenly watch U.S. tariff headlines, after there were signs of a de-escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China. A positive shift in trade negotiations could support the dollar, while a lack of progress or negative headlines would likely pressure it lower. Indian rupee falls amid rising tensions with Pakistan after Kashmir attack Meanwhile, traders expect that India's benchmark bond yield to hover between 6.30% and 6.40% this week, with any flare up in tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals resulting in a break to the upside. The yield has been on a downtrend recently due to expectations of more rate cuts from the domestic central bank and its assurance on a banking system liquidity surplus. The Reserve Bank of India will buy 200 billion rupees of bonds this week. It has bought nearly 3.7 trillion rupees of bonds in the first four months of 2025. 'A rate cut in June appears to be a done deal barring some severe dislocation in global markets that adversely affects EM currencies like rupee,' ICICI Securities Primary Dealership said.
