Latest news with #JSEALSI
The Star
17 hours ago
- Business
- The Star
Equities surged in May while the Rand stabilised
Chris Harmse | Published 3 days ago The JSE had a bumper month and year-to-date. Given all the growing uncertainties on the global and domestic geo-political front, investors and the public expected the worst for the share and foreign exchange markets during the month of May. Given the Trump administration's chop-and-change announcements in the trade war between the US and other countries, like China, Canada, and European countries, as well as the jittery South Africa/US relations, it was expected by many members of the public that the economy and financial markets would go from better to worse. Table 1: Various share indices performances since the beginning of 2015 Index 1 month 3 months Year-to-date JSE ALSI 3.4% 10.2% 12.1% JSE Top40 3.4% 10.8% 14.4% JSE Financial15 4.3% 8.7% 16.0% JSE Industrial 25 4.2% 8.7% 16.0% JSE Res 10 3.1% 21.1% 31.3% Dow S&P500 5.5% -0.13% -0.14% UK FTSE 3.3% -0.04% 7.3% MSCI Europe 3.8% 7.0% 18.3% Hang Seng 5.3% 1.7% 16.10% In contrast, share prices on the JSE reached record high levels and their best annual five months since the 2020 Covid-Virus equity downward streak, and all the main indices recorded growth of above 10% since the beginning of the year. Prospects for share and capital markets Despite the national budget woes, US trade tariff threats, the lack of domestic service delivery, and a deterioration of transport infrastructure and export facilities, signs of an economic recovery in South Africa boost capital and equity markets. The cut in the repo rate by the Monetary Policy Committee , nine consecutive months where the inflation rate remained less than the Reserve Bank's midpoint target of 4.5%, and expectations of an inflation rate remaining around the 3.0% proposed new target range, boosted domestic and global investment confidence. The expected further cut in fuel prices in June, despite the hike in the fuel levy by the Treasury, the possible extension of the Agoa agreement, and lower proposed US tariffs against South Africa, increase domestic and foreign investment appetite on the South African share and capital markets. The rand against the dollar stabilises and gives reason for a rate cut. On the foreign exchange market, the rand improved in May to its strongest level against the major currencies for 2025. Against the dollar, the rand improved over the month of May by 3.1% or 50 cents from R18.59 to R17.99 on Friday. Against pound sterling, the currency appreciated by 2.5% or 57cents to R24.21/£ and against the Euro, stronger by 3.0% or 64c to R20.24/€. The stronger rand also contributes to a surge in financial, retail, and property shares on the JSE with the capital market returns also higher. The Trump administration's latest tariff surge threatens. US President Trump doubled tariffs on steel imports on Friday from 25% to 50% and announced: 'Nobody is going to get around that,' as he also introduced 50% tariffs on imported aluminum. This 'new' tariffs surge will be introduced on June 4. This latest tariff craze put global equity markets and currencies under pressure. The Euro Stoxx 50 index lost 1.07% last week, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong traded 1.2% lower on Friday and tumbled by 1.4% over the week. Prospects for this coming week This coming week, domestic and foreign investors await the release of US non-farm payrolls for May 2025, which will be released on Friday. The market expects 140 000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. These two indicators will give an indication of prospects for a bank rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their next interest rate meeting later this month. Domestically, the new vehicle sales for May will be released today. Elsewhere, the ECB will make its interest rate decision on Thursday. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
4 days ago
- Business
- IOL News
Equities surged in May while the Rand stabilised
The JSE had a bumper month and year-to-date Image: Supplied The JSE had a bumper month and year-to-date. Given all the growing uncertainties on the global and domestic geo-political front, investors and the public expected the worst for the share and foreign exchange markets during the month of May. Given the Trump administration's chop-and-change announcements in the trade war between the US and other countries, like China, Canada, and European countries, as well as the jittery South Africa/US relations, it was expected by many members of the public that the economy and financial markets would go from better to worse. Table 1: Various share indices performances since the beginning of 2015 Index 1 month 3 months Year-to-date JSE ALSI 3.4% 10.2% 12.1% JSE Top40 3.4% 10.8% 14.4% JSE Financial15 4.3% 8.7% 16.0% JSE Industrial 25 4.2% 8.7% 16.0% JSE Res 10 3.1% 21.1% 31.3% Dow S&P500 5.5% -0.13% -0.14% UK FTSE 3.3% -0.04% 7.3% MSCI Europe 3.8% 7.0% 18.3% Hang Seng 5.3% 1.7% 16.10% In contrast, share prices on the JSE reached record high levels and their best annual five months since the 2020 Covid-Virus equity downward streak, and all the main indices recorded growth of above 10% since the beginning of the year. Prospects for share and capital markets Despite the national budget woes, US trade tariff threats, the lack of domestic service delivery, and a deterioration of transport infrastructure and export facilities, signs of an economic recovery in South Africa boost capital and equity markets. The cut in the repo rate by the Monetary Policy Committee, nine consecutive months where the inflation rate remained less than the Reserve Bank's midpoint target of 4.5%, and expectations of an inflation rate remaining around the 3.0% proposed new target range, boosted domestic and global investment confidence. The expected further cut in fuel prices in June, despite the hike in the fuel levy by the Treasury, the possible extension of the Agoa agreement, and lower proposed US tariffs against South Africa, increase domestic and foreign investment appetite on the South African share and capital markets. The rand against the dollar stabilises and gives reason for a rate cut. On the foreign exchange market, the rand improved in May to its strongest level against the major currencies for 2025. Against the dollar, the rand improved over the month of May by 3.1% or 50 cents from R18.59 to R17.99 on Friday. Against pound sterling, the currency appreciated by 2.5% or 57cents to R24.21/£ and against the Euro, stronger by 3.0% or 64c to R20.24/€. The stronger rand also contributes to a surge in financial, retail, and property shares on the JSE with the capital market returns also higher. The Trump administration's latest tariff surge threatens. US President Trump doubled tariffs on steel imports on Friday from 25% to 50% and announced: 'Nobody is going to get around that,' as he also introduced 50% tariffs on imported aluminum. This 'new' tariffs surge will be introduced on June 4. This latest tariff craze put global equity markets and currencies under pressure. The Euro Stoxx 50 index lost 1.07% last week, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong traded 1.2% lower on Friday and tumbled by 1.4% over the week. Prospects for this coming week This coming week, domestic and foreign investors await the release of US non-farm payrolls for May 2025, which will be released on Friday. The market expects 140 000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. These two indicators will give an indication of prospects for a bank rate cut by the Federal Reserve at their next interest rate meeting later this month. Domestically, the new vehicle sales for May will be released today. Elsewhere, the ECB will make its interest rate decision on Thursday. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Image: Supplied Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. BUSINESS REPORT
IOL News
19-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Financial markets: The JSE ALSI is a silent warrior, with fuel prices heading for another cut
This coming week investors domestic and foreign await the release of South Africa's inflation rate for April to be released by STASSA on Wednesday. Image: File. Despite all the attention on the US trade debate and the South African lack of budget consensus, the worrying unemployment data (32.9%) for Q1, the ALSI on the JSE continue its impressive performance. The index closed on Friday on 92 619, only twenty points away from its record level of 92 638, which was recorded last Tuesday. Not only did ALSI end the week with 0.9% in the green but it is now 9.7% up for the year to date. Foreign buying interests in SA shares, the strong recovery in Naspers and Prosus saw the Rand exchange rate moving close to the R18.00/$ level. Financial shares were the best performer on the JSE last week as the FIN15 index gained 2.7%. JSE ALSI compared with other global indices. (15 May 2025) Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ JSE ALSI compared with other global indices. (15 May 2025) Image: Supplied. On the foreign exchange market, the Rand improved against the US$ over the week by thirty cents to close on Friday at R18.04/$. This is the strongest level for the year-to-date. Against the British £ the Rand improved by twenty-five cents to R23.96/ £ and against the Euro appreciated the last five days by twenty-two cents to R20.12/€. Given the stable but lower Brent oil price around $65 per barrel, the price for fuel is expected to come down by between twenty-two cents (petrol) and fifty-seven cents (diesel) at the beginning of June 2025. In the week after the drastic cut in the proposed tariff increases by both the USA (down from 147%) and China (down from 120%) to 30% and 10% on imports from the other one, S&P500 on Wall Street shot up by 5,5%, whereas the Shanghai in China initially recovered last week up to Wednesday by increasing 2.2%, but ended Friday flat for the week, with 22 point gaining only 0.65% on the pre-trade US trade discussions level the previous weekend. This coming week investors domestic and foreign await the release of South Africa's inflation rate for April to be released by STASSA on Wednesday. It is expected that the annual increase in the CPI will be 2.9%. This is higher than the annual inflation rate of 2.7% recorded for March 2025, but still lower than the 3.0% target envisaged by the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank, that it had set 'unofficially' for their new inflation rate target. It also will be the ninth consecutive month that the rate is lower than the current midpoint target of 4.5%. The debate around when the MPC lowers its repo rate will continue. A rate of lower than 3.0% will be favorable for the Rand and especially financial shares. STATSSA will also publish the retail sales for March 2025 on Wednesday. The meeting between President Trump and President Ramaphosa on Wednesday will also attract attention of investors and will also affect equity prices, bond rates and the rand exchange rate. Globally countries like Great Britain, Canada, Japan, and the EU will announce their inflation rates for April during the week. China will release its retail numbers for April today. In the US data on home sales, jobless claims, and various Purchasers Managers Indices (PMI's) will be announced. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Chris Harmse is the consulting economist of Sequoia Capital Management and a senior lecturer at Stadio Higher Education. Image: Supplied BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
