Latest news with #NOAAClimatePredictionCenter
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Is West Virginia done with winter weather for the season?
CLARKSBURG, (WBOY) — After seeing frost advisories and even snow in parts of West Virginia on Wednesday, April 16, things are looking up for West Virginians who are ready for summer. The StormTracker 12 Weather team predicts that Wednesday will stay chilly, but by Thursday, afternoon, spring weather is expected to return and stick around. Temperatures will remain warm for the rest of the week with highs in the 70s for the lowlands. Weather forecasts are generally accurate about seven days out, but the National Weather Service NOAA Climate Prediction Center is indicating that it will likely stay warm for the next month. Temperature outlooks released over the past week indicate that there is a decent chance of above average temperatures in West Virginia. For April 21-25, there is a 60-70% chance of warmer than normal temperatures across the Mountain State; for April 23-29 there is a 50-60% chance; and for April 26-May 9, there is a 50-70% chance, depending on where you live in the state. The same is true for most of the rest of the country. Invasive Spotted Lanternfly spreading across north central West Virginia NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlooks predict the probability of temperature being above or below normal, not how much temperature is expected to deviate from the normal. Also, the predictions do not claim to be 100% accurate, so even if there is a 70% chance of warmer weather, there is still a roughly 25% chance of normal temperatures and a 5% chance of cooler than normal weather. It is possible that West Virginia could see winter-like weather return after those outlook dates. In 2023, West Virginia saw record-breaking snow in May when up to 20 inches fell in some parts of the state. However, the three-month outlook released in March predicted a 40-50% chance of above average temperatures in April, May and June, so although there might be a few chilly days mixed in, if the outlooks are accurate, there will be more warm days. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
22-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Rainfall eases drought conditions but the relief may be temporary
Mar. 22—Maine might soon be on the way out of a monthslong drought — but hydrologists say it's too early to say for sure. Nearly 13% of Maine — a strip along the southern coast and Down East — is in a state of moderate drought and nearly two-thirds of the state was classified as "abnormally dry" as of Tuesday, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Just under a quarter of the state reported normal conditions, keeping up a dry spell that's covered much of Maine since September, according to the Drought Monitor. For most of 2025, about 92% of the state had been at least "abnormally dry," while more than 38% weathered moderate drought conditions, according to the monitor. Those numbers fell to their current levels last week, shortly before a storm dropped around an inch of rain over southern Maine early in the week. Greater Portland recorded between a half and 1 inch of rainfall by Tuesday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Sarah Jamison, senior weather service hydrologist in Gray, said recent rain could provide some quick moisture to dry regions, but "short-term relief does not necessarily wipe out the level of drought impacts that we have sustained in the fall." "Think of today as you received your paycheck: 'Boy we've got a lot of money,'" she said. "But in the background there's a bunch of credit card debt." The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's seasonal drought outlook says that the drought is expected to clear from Maine's coastal communities, as well as much of New England, by the end of June. New England has seen near-normal levels of precipitation so far, with more rain expected through the end of the month, forecast author Brad Pugh wrote. Cooler temperatures may also help moisture absorb into the soil, he said. But forecast confidence was low for the Northeast, Pugh said. The outlook, which was released Thursday, will be updated at the end of the month and more closely examine April precipitation trends, he said. "We are going to be reliant on a wet spring, some pretty decent spring showers," Jamison said. "To even get to normal, we've got to hope for a fairly wet spring." A DRY WINTER Part of the reason for Maine's ongoing drought has been the cycle created by an unusually dry January, Jamison said. Typically, Maine gets a thick layer of snow that insulates the ground. But this year, rapid oscillations between highs and lows left much of the ground bare, allowing the frost to penetrate deep into the ground. A deeper frost, in turn, prevents melting snow from being absorbed into the hard soil, leading to runoff, said Richard Tinker, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center. "If you get a sudden increase in temperature, it will melt that snow, but it will not be able to penetrate the ground," Tinker said. "When you get these warm, wet systems in the middle of the winter ... it just doesn't do as much as you might think it would." Tinker said that oscillation is most often a problem in higher elevation regions of the country out West, but it can happen in the Northeast as well. The ground frost was thicker this year than it has been in around a decade, Jamison said. The rapid fluctuations between above- and below-freezing temperatures created "an idealized setup for deep frost depth," she said. "Normally you have the snow to insulate," Jamison said. "That floor of concrete is a lot thicker than it's been." A recent warm spell also meant that the snow began melting about two weeks earlier than usual — while the deep frost was just beginning to soften — which compounded runoff issues. "If the snow melts and runs off before the ground thaws, we are not able to capture as much of that as we would like," she said. Meanwhile, snow depth and the overall amount of water stored in the snowpack this winter lags typical levels. She cautioned that, even if spring rain alleviates drought conditions in the next few weeks, there may not be enough moisture in the soil to last through the dry months of summer. "We're going to have to see how we are when we start to green up," Jamison said. "That soil moisture can get depleted fairly quickly." Copy the Story Link
Yahoo
04-03-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
NOAA outlook predicts warm, rainy March for West Virginia: How accurate is it?
CLARKSBURG, (WBOY) — All of West Virginia is leaning toward above average temperatures on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's most recent outlook for mid-March, but that doesn't mean the state will see summer-like temperatures. The maps released over the weekend predict that temperatures in West Virginia will be above average for most of the spring, with the highest chance for unseasonably warm temperatures from March 10-16. However, that does not mean that those days will be the warmest. The temperature outlooks from NOAA only predict the chance of warmer than normal temperatures, not how warm it will be. The same is true for the precipitation outlook; it does not indicate how much rain an area will actually get, according to NOAA's climate website. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a 'warmer and wetter' spring The outlooks never claim to be 100% accurate. Even though some of the maps above predict above average temperatures at up to 80%, there is still a chance they could be wrong. They are meant to give industries impacted by weather an edge. For example, farmers can reference the outlooks to determine when to plan crops. 'The climate is not that predictable. There's always a chance one of the other outcomes sneaks in there,' the NOAA website says. The outlooks are different from weather forecasts, which predict a temperature or amount of rain for an area. For more explanation on the NOAA outlooks, click here, and to see a breakdown of what the percentages in the maps above mean, click here. According to StormTracker 12 Chief Meteorologist Justin Kiefer, day-to-day forecasts from trusted weather sources are accurate about 3-5 days out. However, different models can have discrepancies, especially in areas like north central West Virginia that are not near a National Weather Service headquarters. StormTracker 12 Weather forecasts for the next seven days are available here, and other updates are shared on the StormTracker 12 Facebook and X pages. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
21-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Spring Weather Outlook: What to expect in Tennessee this year
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released its 90-day outlook on Thursday for March, April, and May. That includes the spring severe weather season. The forecast calls for both above-normal temperatures and precipitation averaged over the 90 days. So, could this bring an increase in severe weather? News 2 spoke with Ryan Husted, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Nashville: 'Going into a La Nina year, we typically have above normal severe weather, which could be large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes,' Husted explained. 'Now, in terms of tornadoes, it's kind of a mixed signal. Either we could be below normal for our tornado statistics across the state of Tennessee, or we could be significantly above normal, say 30% or more.' 📧 Have breaking news come to you: → 'With this La Nina spring upcoming, what this will mean for Middle Tennessee is that the surface low-pressure centers will go north of us,' Husted said. 'Last year, if you remember, they were going south of us. So, we were cool and not worried about severe weather until May. This year, we're already worried about it. We've had two events so far in February and five tornadoes already. And that's going to continue. We're going to be on the warm side of these systems, so the thunderstorms will have that warm, moist air that they need to work with to produce severe weather.' Low pressure passing to our north, keeping Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky in the 'warm sector.' 'I would plan for a more active severe weather year this year,' Husted warned. 'We're not going to be waiting until May for the season to start. It's already here. You can expect more severe weather, March-April-May during the peak of our traditional severe weather season. So, I would plan for more active severe weather.' ⏩ Husted also said that with above-normal precipitation, flooding could also be a concern this spring. Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
