Latest news with #NateSilver
New York Post
03-06-2025
- Health
- New York Post
Is it any wonder liberals are having a mental health crisis?
Liberals are more than twice as likely to say they have poor mental health — while conservatives are more than twice as likely to say their mental well-being is 'excellent.' Is it any wonder? Conservatives promote family and religious values and pro-community messaging. The left is the party of grievance politics and 'yes you can't' messaging. Advertisement 9 Liberals are twice as likely to say they have poor mental health, according to self-reported data. pressmaster – Now, data collected from the 2022 Cooperative Election Study from Tufts University and reported by statistician and political commentator Nate Silver reveals that, among voters who said their mental health was poor, 45% identified as politically liberal and just 19% were conservatives. Conversely, those who said they had excellent mental health identified as conservative 51% of the time, while 20% were liberal. 9 Nate Silver published data showing liberals have worse mental health outcomes on his Substack. Slaven Vlasic Advertisement The stark lifestyle differences between the two are illuminating. For one thing, Democrats have ceded a virtual monopoly on pro-family and pro-religious messaging to Republicans — the very values that can promote life meaning, interpersonal connection and mental well-being. Conservatives traditionally promote family values, and it's long been known that people who have other people who rely on them, like spouses and children, fare better than people who only worry about themselves. Take, for example, Fay Dubinsky, a 28-year-old Zoomer who actually describes herself as a happy member of the most depressed generation on record. Advertisement 9 Fay Dubinsky says her marriage and child give her meaning and purpose. Courtesy of Fay Dubinsky 'I take time for myself, but so much of my day is to help others, to take care of my family, to take care of my baby,' Dubinsky, a mother of a two-year-old, told The Post. 'People my age, their life is about them, and serving themselves, and always seeking out more pleasure.' Some 86% of conservatives identify with a religion, according to Pew. And religious people are more likely to self-describe as 'very happy' in the United States, likely because they have a connection to a higher purpose beyond the earthly world. This likewise applies to Dubinsky: 'I grew up Jewish and religious, and I think that's probably one of the reasons that I'm not depressed or anxious. I have so much meaning in my life, and that's not typical for my generation.' Advertisement 9 Religious people tend to report greater happiness in the United States. tutye – But it's also about the messaging coming from conservative politicians about self-reliance and self-confidence, two traits highly associated with mental well-being, according to mental health professionals and organizations alike. The right traditionally espouses pull-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps messaging — teaching people they can rely on their hard work and resolve to get by. On the flip side, Democrats have embraced just about the opposite of all of these values. Self-reliance?The libs aren't fans. 9 Young men have shifted to the right as Democrats embraced grievance politics. Michael Nigro Identity politics have overtaken the Democratic party, as lefty leaders insist that immutable characteristics like race and gender are constantly holding citizens back from their potential. Only government intervention — and a vote for their side — can fix it, they claim. It's the sort of ideology that saw the Biden administration attempt to give out loans exclusively to black farmers. What sort of message does that send? 9 The Biden Administration attempted to deliver loans to black farmers, while excluding other groups. Bloomberg via Getty Images Advertisement Or how about the endless insistence that non-white voters would be disenfranchised if voter ID laws were put in place, because they couldn't possibly be expected to produce identification like everyone else? Democrats have also become the party of handouts and free things — from student loan forgiveness to endless stimulus checks — implying that Americans can't get along without their help in a world stacked against them. 'Today the game is rigged — rigged to work for those who have money and power,' Elizabeth Warren declared in her memoir 'A Fighting Chance.' It's an ironic title, considering how the Massachusetts senator is pretty much implying regular Americans don't have one. 9 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said one's Zip code 'determines your destiny.' Paul Kitagaki Jr./ZUMA Press Wire / Advertisement 'I was born in a place where your Zip code determines your destiny,' Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, a graduate of Boston University and nationally famous politician, told her constituents who are from that same area. And sometimes it's not even clear who exactly is holding people back … but it's definitely someone. 'There will be a resistance to your ambition, there will be people who say to you, 'You are out of your lane.'' Kamala Harris bafflingly said in 2020. 'They are burdened by only having the capacity to see what has always been instead of what can be. But don't you let that burden you.' 9 Kamala Harris has alluded to 'burdens' borne by the American people. AP Advertisement There's a term in psychology called the 'locus of control,' which refers to your sense of whether things happen to you or whether you make things happen. No surprise that the latter — a greater sense of agency — is associated with vastly better mental health. When you stop thinking everything is working against you and start taking power over what you can control, the world becomes a far less scary place. Unfortunately, the left has taught its voters to externalize their locus of control, according to Greg Lukianoff, co-author of 'The Coddling of the American Mind.' 9 'The Coddling of the American Mind' theorized that some progressive ideas were making people depressed and anxious. Advertisement 'Progressivism, with its emphasis on victimhood and vulnerability to impersonal forces … weakens the sense of agency and, frankly, contributes to depression and anxiety,' he told The Post. 'As the political left reevaluates its strategies on everything from abundance to identity, it should also consider adopting an ideology that empowers individuals, fosters an internal sense of control and doesn't fuel emotional suffering.' It's no wonder, then, that the party of self-pity is also the party of poor mental health.
Yahoo
02-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump approval rating net positive on immigration only: Nate Silver
President Trump has a net positive approval rating only on the issue of immigration, according to the latest polling averages released by Nate Silver's 'Silver Bulletin.' The latest averages, updated Monday, show Trump with a net positive 2.5 percentage point approval rating on the issue of immigration, with an average of 49.6 percent approving of his handling of the issue and 47.2 percent disapproving. Trump began this term with a net positive 7-point approval on immigration, which has remained his best issue for most of the term so far. His approval on the issue peaked at net positive 11.1 percentage point approval in early March, and he only dipped into net negative territory in mid-April to early May. Trump's approval rating averages net negative on the three other issues the 'Silver Bulletin' tracks: the economy, trade and inflation. Trump began strong on the issue of economy. At the start of his term, he had a net 6-point approval rating there, and his average approval on the issue even eclipsed immigration for a brief period in late January and early February, when it was net positive 8.3 percentage points on the economy and net positive 8.1 percentage points on immigration. As June begins, however, Trump's average approval on the economy is net negative 11.3 percentage points, with 53.4 percent disapproving and 42.1 percent approving. Average approval of Trump's handling of the economy dipped into the net negative territory in mid-February. Trump's average approval on trade is net negative 9.6 percentage points, while his approval on inflation is net negative 17.5 percentage points. On both issues, Trump began his term with single-digit net negative approval but briefly managed to garner low net-positive approval averages in the first month of his term, before dipping back into negative territory. Overall, the latest polling average shows Trump with a net negative 5.4 percentage point approval rating, with 45.9 percent approving and 51.3 percent disapproving. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
The Hill
02-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Trump approval rating net positive on immigration only: Nate Silver
President Trump has a net positive approval rating only on the issue of immigration, according to the latest polling averages released by Nate Silver's 'Silver Bulletin.' The latest averages, updated on Monday, show Trump with a net positive 2.5 percentage point approval rating on the issue of immigration, with an average of 49.6 percent approving of his handling of the issue and 47.2 percent disapproving. Trump began this term with a net positive 7-point approval on immigration, which has remained his best issue for most of the term so far. His approval on the issue peaked at net positive 11.1 percentage point approval in early March, and he only dipped into net negative territory in mid-April to early May. Trump's approval rating averages net negative on the three other issues that the 'Silver Bulletin' tracks: the economy, trade and inflation. Trump began strong on the issue of economy. At the start of his term, he had a net 6-point approval rating on the economy, and his average approval on the issue even eclipsed immigration for a brief period in late January and early February, when it was net positive 8.3 percentage points on the economy and net positive 8.1 percentage points on immigration. As June begins, however, Trump's average approval on the economy is net negative 11.3 percentage points, with 53.4 percent disapproving and 42.1 percent approving of his handling of the issue. Average approval of Trump's handling of the economy dipped into the net negative territory in mid-February. Trump's average approval on trade is net negative 9.6 percentage points, while his approval on inflation is net negative 17.5 percentage points. On both issues, Trump began his term with single-digit net negative approval but briefly managed to garner low net-positive approval averages in the first month of his term, before dipping back into negative territory. Overall, the latest polling average shows Trump with a net negative 5.4 percentage point approval rating, with 45.9 percent approving and 51.3 percent disapproving.
Forbes
29-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Elon Musk Exits Trump Administration More Unpopular Than When He Started
Elon Musk has become significantly less popular since he joined President Donald Trump's administration, according to polls, as he exits his government role after a tenure marked by some fumbled attempts to gut government agencies. Elon Musk listens as reporters ask President Donald Trump and South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa ... More questions in the Oval Office at the White House on May 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by) The amount of people who like Musk hasn't changed much since he endorsed Trump on July 13, the day he was shot in Pennsylvania, but the number of people who view him unfavorably has increased significantly, according to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin. Musk's favorability rating has gone from 41% in mid-July to 39% as of Thursday, a day after he announced he was formally leaving his role leading the Department of Government Efficiency, according to the polling average. His unfavorability rating has increased 14 points, from 40% to 54%. One of the most recent reputable polls on Musk, conducted May 23-25 by Morning Consult, found 40% have a very or somewhat favorable opinion and 52% have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion. A CNN poll conducted in March, at the height of Musk's work at DOGE, found the majority of respondents believed Musk has neither the experience nor judgement to carry out Trump's changes to the federal government and found they were worried the cuts would go too far, though results were largely split along party lines. Musk announced Wednesday in a post on X he was formally exiting his role at DOGE, predicting 'the DOGE mission will only strengthen over time as it becomes a way of life throughout the government.' Musk made the announcement less than a month after he said he would significantly scale back political spending and just days after he publicly criticized Trump's signature policy legislation for adding to the federal deficit. We estimate Musk is worth $430.9 billion. It's unclear who will lead the Department of Government Efficiency in Musk's absence. While Musk was the de facto head of department, the Trump administration said that former health care executive, Amy Gleason, was technically the acting administrator of DOGE. Gleason did not have a public-facing role and the extent of her involvement in DOGE's activities is unclear, however. Musk took a heavy-handed approach to cutting government spending during his time in the Trump administration, gutting some agencies, such as the U.S. Agency for International Development, entirely, and laying off tens of thousands of employees across the federal government. He admittedly fell far short of his goal to make $1 trillion in cuts, however, and many of the terminations were reversed by the courts or acknowledgements that they were made in error. Musk became a fixture at Trump's side after he endorsed him in July and subsequently donated $250 million to Trump's campaign, joining him on international trips and weekends at Mar-a-Lago and sometimes spending the night at the White House. Trump's affinity for Musk did not extend to the broader Republican party, however, as many GOP lawmakers publicly expressed doubts about the cuts Musk made. Elon Musk Exits Trump Administration—What To Know (Forbes) Elon Musk Says He'll Remain Tesla CEO For Next 5 Years And 'Do A Lot Less' Political Spending (Forbes) Musk 'Disappointed' With Trump's Spending Bill—Says It Undermines DOGE's Work (Forbes)
The Age
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Did the polls get this election wrong?
American polling guru Nate Silver calls it the first rule of interpreting survey results: almost all polling errors occur in the opposite direction to commentators' predictions. Silver explained this rule in 2017, when many observers expected French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to do better than polls suggested in her country's presidential election. Instead, it was the centrist Emmanuel Macron who outperformed the polls. This phenomenon struck again in Saturday's federal election. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton repeatedly told reporters that the Coalition's internal research was rosier than public polls as he forecast Coalition victories in seats that weren't on anyone's radar. Some believed him, perhaps persuaded by the Coalition's surprise victory in 2019 and Donald Trump's repeated ability to outperform his poll results. Trump's success has popularised the notion there are 'shy' conservative voters who are not willing to share their political opinions with pollsters. In fact, the Australian polls published were off, but not the way Dutton hoped. They underestimated the scale of Labor's victory. 'Every poll underestimated Labor on two-party preferred and primary votes, and overestimated the Coalition,' says pollster Jim Reed, who runs the Resolve Political Monitor published by this masthead. 'Some polls got it really wrong and others slightly wrong.' Having analysed the performance of all the major pollsters, Reed is satisfied with how Resolve did. The two most accurate polls in two-party-preferred terms, he says, were Resolve and Redbridge, whose results were published in the News Corp tabloids. The final Resolve and Redbridge polls, published last week, showed Labor recording 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and the Coalition 47 per cent. The current count has Labor on 55 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, with the Coalition on 45 per cent, putting both Resolve and Redbridge within their margin of error.
