The President Wears No Suit: Polymarket's $3.7M Problem
Prediction markets have evolved from academic thought experiments into a mainstream financial phenomenon. Users can wager on everything from presidential elections to papal successions. And yes, even whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025.
The sector has gained serious credibility. Market leader Polymarket boasts prominent analyst Nate Silver as an adviser. Polymarket operates on Polygon, an Ethereum Layer 2 solution, using a hybrid-decentralized system and generated $2 billion in monthly volume during the 2024 US election, maintaining over $1 billion monthly even post-election. Competitor Kalshi counts Donald Trump Jr, son of the US president, as a strategic adviser. Board member Brian Quintenz is President Donald Trump's nominee to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,
Beyond entertainment value, these platforms create liquid markets that often outperform expert predictions. Prediction sites allow users to stake money on anything from economic data to the weather. Because their products are structured as peer-to-peer trades, providers are regulated not as betting groups but derivatives platforms, allowing them to bypass sports gambling bans in 11 states.
However, an unlikely controversy involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's wardrobe choices has exposed potential vulnerabilities in the oracle systems that resolve these markets.
The Suit Heard 'Round The World
THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS - JUNE 24: President Volodymyr Zelensky of Urkaine arrives at Huis ten Bosch ... More Palace for a dinner hosted by the King and Queen of The Netherlands during the NATO Summit 2025 on June 24, 2025 in The Hague, Netherlands. (Photo by Patrick)
A Polymarket question asked whether Zelenskyy would wear a suit before July 2024. When the Ukrainian president appeared at a June NATO summit in what appeared to be formal attire, chaos ensued.
"Yes" holders argued the garment clearly constituted a suit, citing endorsements from prominent menswear expert Derek Guy and even the designer who created the outfit. Initially, one of Polymarket's associated Twitter accounts agreed, posting that Zelenskyy had indeed worn a suit.
But "No" holders disagreed, and the dispute moved to UMA's Optimistic Oracle, which acts as a generalized escalation game between contracts that initiate a price request and UMA's dispute resolution system known as the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM). This system allows UMA token holders to stake tokens and vote on disputed outcomes.
Despite seemingly clear evidence, including confirmation from fashion experts and the garment's designer, the UMA oracle system appears poised to rule that Zelenskyy did not wear a suit, sparking outrage among "Yes" holders who stand to lose their wagers.
Is Polymarket's Oracle Unsuitable?
THE HAGUE, NETHERLANDS - JUNE 24: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives as NATO leaders and ... More spouses arrive for a dinner hosted by the King and Queen of the Netherlands during the 2025 NATO Summit on June 24, 2025 at Huis ten Bosch Palace in The Hague, Netherlands. This year's NATO summit, which brings together heads of state and government from across the military alliance, is being held in the Netherlands for the first time. Among other matters, members are to approve a new defense investment plan that raises the target for defense spending to 5% of GDP. (Photo by)
The controversy highlights a fundamental vulnerability in decentralized prediction markets. UMA's oracle system is constructed with economic guarantees around the cost of corrupting the DVM to ensure it will cost more to corrupt the oracle (i.e., obtain 51% or more UMA tokens) than the amount someone could profit from corrupting the oracle.
However, critics argue that UMA's relatively small market capitalization compared to Polymarket's trading volumes creates opportunities for economic attacks. Large UMA token holders, or "whales," could potentially manipulate dispute outcomes when the financial incentives align favorably.
The situation has sparked intense debate across social media, with some alleging coordinated efforts to influence the outcome. Rumors have circulated that competitors like Kalshi might be purchasing "Yes" tokens specifically to challenge Polymarket in court, though this remains unverified.
Are The Suits Coming For Prediction Markets?
The timing couldn't be worse for Polymarket, which already faces scrutiny from multiple fronts. Seven states have sent cease and desist letters to Kalshi, which they say did not comply with their laws. The company has responded with lawsuits against the gaming regulators of Nevada, New Jersey and Maryland. While this refers to Kalshi, similar regulatory pressures affect the entire prediction market sector.
The sudden arrival of a new type of competitor threatens to disrupt an industry that has grown rapidly since the Supreme Court overturned a near-nationwide ban on sports gambling in 2018. Traditional sports betting generated $14bn in US revenues last year.
Traditional gambling operators are taking notice. DraftKings and Flutter, which account for more than 80 per cent of the US sports betting market according to Barclays, are now considering how to fight back, viewing prediction markets as a genuine competitive threat.
When Smart Contracts Do Not Suit The Occasion
The Zelenskyy suit controversy illustrates broader challenges facing decentralized prediction markets. UMA has successfully verified over 26,000 data assertions onchain, most of which come from prediction market platforms including Polymarket. Less than two percent of data assertions sent to UMA are disputed, high-stakes disputes can expose systemic vulnerabilities.
The question goes beyond whether Zelenskyy wore a suit. Can current oracle systems can handle subjective determinations fairly and consistently as prediction markets scale? When millions of dollars ride on seemingly simple questions, even minor disputes can have outsized consequences.
For Polymarket and its competitors, the resolution of this particular market may be less important than the broader lesson: as prediction markets mature, their dispute resolution mechanisms must evolve beyond purely crypto-native solutions toward more robust systems that can handle both objective and subjective determinations at scale.
The president may or may not have worn a suit, but one thing is certain: prediction markets are learning that growth comes with growing pains, and not all of them can be solved with smart contracts alone.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
5 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Sibanye Stillwater Limited on by walter99. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on SBSW. Sibanye Stillwater Limited's share was trading at $9.24 as of July 25th. SBSW's trailing and forward P/E were 4.67 and 10.94, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. A mine entrance, showcasing the precious metals and minerals that this company produces. Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW), a major producer of platinum group metals (PGMs)—platinum, palladium, and rhodium—offers a leveraged play on a sector where years of underinvestment and misjudged demand forecasts have created the setup for an extended upcycle. PGMs are essential for automotive catalysts and jewelry, with catalytic converters alone accounting for 43% of platinum and 84% of palladium demand. Market pessimism has been fueled by overestimates of battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration, but BEV sales growth in the U.S. and Europe flatlined in 2024, suggesting that internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicle demand—and thus PGM demand—will remain resilient. Supply is structurally constrained: South African PGM miners underspent by ~$18 billion over the last decade, 40% of global supply operates at or below cash costs, and production is forecast to decline through 2029. With long lead times for new supply, a persistent deficit projected by the World Platinum Investment Council, and palladium in deficit until at least 2028, any uptick in demand can drive a sharp price response. Recycling, a secondary supply source, remains depressed post-COVID, adding to market tightness. SBSW's profits, crushed by low PGM prices in 2024, have substantial torque to higher prices, as shown in 2020–2021 when the stock hit $20 on elevated metal prices. Today, at $7, platinum's rebound to $1,250 suggests early signs of a cyclical turn. Risks include economic weakness, faster BEV adoption, and rising recycling supply, but with constrained production, a decade of underinvestment, and platinum already rallying, SBSW presents asymmetric upside if PGM prices sustain an upcycle. Previously, we covered a on Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) by Hugo Navarro in February 2025, highlighting its diversified asset base in PGMs, gold, lithium, and recycling, with growth levers despite weak PGM prices. The stock has appreciated by about 130% as PGM prices rebounded. The thesis still stands, and Walter99 shares a similar view but emphasizes SBSW's leverage to a sustained PGM upcycle. Sibanye Stillwater Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 20 hedge fund portfolios held SBSW at the end of the first quarter which was 18 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of SBSW as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Associated Press
7 minutes ago
- Associated Press
Brewery-Inspired Scalable CO2 Liquefaction Solves Missing Link for Carbon Capture Startups
From Craft Beer to Climate Solutions: Kim Dalum's Scalable Brewery-Inspired CO2 Liquefaction Solves Missing Link for Carbon Capture Startups. 'It's been a rewarding experience working with some of the brightest pioneers and innovators in the carbon capture industry to help them solve this ongoing challenge of processing and liquefying CO2.'— Kim Dalum SøNDERSø, DENMARK, August 4, 2025 / / -- The fight against climate change demands innovative solutions, and sometimes, the most impactful advancements emerge from unexpected places. DALUM Beverage Equipment, a Danish startup initially focused on CO2 recovery within the craft brewing industry and is now proving to be a critical enabler for broader carbon capture and direct air capture (DAC) initiatives, thanks to its pioneering and cost-effective CO2 liquefaction technology. Founded by veteran engineer Kim Dalum, a recognized expert in CO2 processing, DALUM Beverage Equipment developed a patented solution allowing craft breweries and distilleries to recover, purify, and liquefy CO2 produced during fermentation for reuse or sale. This process is a significant 'low-hanging fruit' for carbon avoidance, given that fermentation CO2 boasts over 97% purity, a stark contrast to the mere ~12% purity typically found in industrial flue gases. The potential impact within the beverage sector alone is substantial. With 22 million barrels of craft beer produced globally each year, there's a potential to recover 80,000 metric tons of CO2 annually, at an estimated cost of just €70 per ton. A prime example of this success is Stewart Brewing in Scotland, which not only reuses its recovered CO2 but also sells the excess, turning a waste product into a valuable revenue stream. Beyond breweries, distilleries represent another largely untapped source of biogenic CO2. While distilleries don't typically use CO2 in their processes, captured CO2 could be sold, sequestered in building materials, or even used for dry ice – all applications that directly displace CO2 sourced from industrial, fossil fuel-intensive processes. However, DALUM's journey has taken an unexpected turn, revealing a critical need in the wider carbon capture landscape. Over the past two years, numerous carbon capture and DAC startups have approached DALUM, seeking solutions for the final, crucial stage of their process: CO2 liquefaction. Many of these nascent companies, while excelling in front-end capture and enrichment technologies, struggle with finding cost-effective, turn-key solutions for liquefying CO2, especially pilot programs and smaller-scale commercial plants. Kim Dalum elaborates, 'It's been a rewarding experience working with some of the brightest pioneers and innovators in the carbon capture industry to help them solve this ongoing challenge of processing and liquefying CO2 – no single project is the same and very much experimental in nature.' This is where DALUM's specialized expertise shines. Kim Dalum's background as the former CEO of Union Engineering (now owned by Pentair), a leading manufacturer of industrial CO2 recovery plants, provides an unparalleled foundation in gas processing. DALUM has leveraged this experience to design custom liquefaction solutions capable of purifying CO2 with purity as low as 70% coming from flue gas at a project with the environmental technology company ESTECH in Denmark at the municipality of Odense. Another project Kim Dalum personally was involved in, is in Germany, an innovative DAC project led by DACMA and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). Crucially, DALUM's plants are designed for accessibility. Starting at €44,000, for their smallest size, a 5kg/hr unit, they arrive fully assembled and are remarkably compact – about the size of a phone booth. This makes them an attractive proposition for startups that need efficient, scalable, and readily deployable liquefaction capabilities without significant upfront infrastructure investment. To date, DALUM has sold ten plants to carbon capture and DAC customers ranging in capacities from 5kg per hour of CO2 to 30kg+ per hour, demonstrating the versatility of their technology, with some units customized for lower purity CO2 streams and others being standard models. By providing this essential 'last mile' solution, DALUM enables carbon capture and DAC startups to focus on their core capture technologies, accelerating the deployment of crucial climate solutions. DALUM Beverage Equipment's evolution from a niche beverage industry supplier to a pivotal player in the broader carbon capture ecosystem highlights the interconnectedness of sustainable practices across industries. Their innovative approach to CO2 liquefaction is not just optimizing brewing; it's helping to unlock the potential of a truly circular carbon economy. About Dalum Equipment DALUM Equipment based in Denmark and Wisconsin, USA was founded by Kim Dalum, PhD. Dalum's mission is to make a significant contribution to the reduction of global CO2 emissions in the craft brewing market and beyond. Kelly Fetherolf Dalum Beverage Equipment +1 818-391-7544 email us here Visit us on social media: LinkedIn Instagram Facebook YouTube Legal Disclaimer: EIN Presswire provides this news content 'as is' without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the author above.
Associated Press
7 minutes ago
- Associated Press
EU Awards €1.5M Grant to AIxBlock, With €61.5M More in the Pipeline
EU backs AIxBlock's mission to decentralize AI development and automate infrastructure workflows—starting with a €1.5M grant and €61.5M in non-dilutive funding pipeline CALIFORNIA, Aug. 04, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In a significant show of institutional support, AIxBlock, a decentralized AI tech startup in the Bay Area, has secured a €1.5 million innovation grant from the European Union, alongside with up to €61.5 million in 2 additional grants pre-approved to support its long-term expansion across Europe. The backing positions AIxBlock as a frontrunner in a fast-emerging category: decentralized, automation-first AI infrastructure. The move signals growing European interest in infrastructure that empowers open, decentralized, community-driven platforms—not just hyperscalers—to play a leading role in the AI ecosystem. A Regulatory-Ready Alternative to Centralized AI Infrastructure AIxBlock's €1.5M secured grant comes with zero dilution (with onboarding (KYC) underway prior to fund disbursement), allowing the company to deepen its technology footprint in the EU while preserving ownership and control. The €61.5M in pre-approved funding of 2 other grants will include support for building a physical decentralized GPU network, leveraging underutilized data centers in the region to offer scalable, eco-aligned compute infrastructure in future phases. What AIxBlock Builds AIxBlock is a full-stack platform for end-to-end AI development and workflow automation. It allows startups, agencies, and enterprises to: The platform is designed to give builders full ownership of their infrastructure stack—without vendor lock-in—and to make AI development and automation more affordable, modular, and decentralized. Open Source with Long-Term Contributor Incentives AIxBlock is built with an open-source foundation and invites the global developer and AI community to contribute. Those who participate in improving the platform—whether through code, infrastructure, validation, or ecosystem support—will be eligible for long-term revenue and benefit sharing, proportionate to the value and level of their contribution. This model ensures that core contributors, infrastructure providers, and validators are aligned with the platform's long-term success, with transparent tracking of input and rewards over time. Blockchain as a Coordination and Incentive Layer Blockchain technology plays a critical role in AIxBlock's architecture, serving as the underlying layer for transparency, incentive distribution, and coordination across its decentralized ecosystem. It powers: Scaling Through EU Infrastructure, Responsibly A key part of AIxBlock's roadmap involves tapping into the EU's large base of underutilized data centers to deploy its decentralized GPU network. This expansion is planned for future phases supported by the broader grant pipeline, reflecting a strategy rooted in efficiency, sustainability, and digital sovereignty. By revitalizing existing infrastructure rather than building from scratch, AIxBlock aims to deliver scalable compute capacity while minimizing both environmental impact and geopolitical dependence. Quiet Execution, Long-Term Vision Without any paid marketing since MVP, AIxBlock has already onboarded over 12,000 users organically and secured some enterprise clients who are deploying large-scale model development workflows on the platform. The team continues to focus on expanding core capabilities and preparing for the next wave of infrastructure activation across the EU. As regulators, enterprises, and builders begin to question the scalability and transparency of centralized AI pipelines, platforms like AIxBlock offer an emerging alternative—designed for compliance, customization, and control. Strategic Positioning for Market Leadership With EU support secured and a substantial funding pipeline in place, AIxBlock has built both the credibility and resources to scale with confidence. Its ability to win institutional grants—combined with growing demand for decentralized infrastructure—makes it a compelling partner for strategic investors and ecosystem collaborators. The convergence of AI infrastructure demand and decentralized technology adoption presents a generational opportunity. EU backing provides the regulatory confidence that institutional investors and enterprise clients increasingly seek when evaluating infrastructure plays. As the decentralized AI landscape matures, platforms with public-sector backing, proven technology, and execution capital will be best positioned to lead. AIxBlock's current standing—anchored by confirmed funding, a pre-approved pipeline, and a clear expansion roadmap—signals its emergence as a serious contender in the global AI infrastructure race. Building the AI Operating Layer for Europe With institutional trust, a clear multi-stage public funding pipeline, and a differentiated approach to AI infrastructure, AIxBlock is positioning itself as a critical operating layer for the next era of enterprise and open-source AI development. At a time when developers are demanding more freedom, privacy regulations are tightening, and the cost of compute is rising, AIxBlock offers a new model: Decentralize the resources. Automate the workflows. Reward the community. Build locally, scale globally. About AIxBlock AIxBlock is a next-generation AI infrastructure platform built for developers, startups, and enterprises to build, fine-tune, and deploy AI models with unmatched flexibility and cost efficiency. Combining decentralized GPU resources, end-to-end AI development tools, and workflow automation, AIxBlock eliminates vendor lock-in and reduces compute costs by up to 90%. The platform offers a full-stack, automation-first environment—from data collection and labeling to model training, deployment, and integration with external apps—powered by a decentralized marketplace of models and compute providers. With institutional funding from the European Union (€1.5M Secured) and a roadmap to activate €61.5M more in non-dilutive grants, AIxBlock is building the AI operating layer for Europe and beyond. Website | X | Telegram Contact: Lee Ng [email protected] Disclaimer: This content is provided by AIxBlock. The statements, views, and opinions expressed in this content are solely those of the content provider and do not necessarily reflect the views of this media platform or its publisher. We do not endorse, verify, or guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information presented. We do not guarantee any claims, statements, or promises made in this article. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Investing in crypto and mining-related opportunities involves significant risks, including the potential loss of capital. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent advice if necessary. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither the media platform nor the publisher shall be held responsible for any fraudulent activities, misrepresentations, or financial losses arising from the content of this press release. In the event of any legal claims or charges against this article, we accept no liability or responsibility. Globenewswire does not endorse any content on this page. Legal Disclaimer: This media platform provides the content of this article on an 'as-is' basis, without any warranties or representations of any kind, express or implied. We assume no responsibility for any inaccuracies, errors, or omissions. We do not assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information presented herein. Any concerns, complaints, or copyright issues related to this article should be directed to the content provider mentioned above. Photos accompanying this announcement are available at:
