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Irish Times
18-05-2025
- Politics
- Irish Times
Romanian run-off the most crucial vote on Europe's ‘Super Sunday' of elections
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country's strategic alignment and economic prospects, as voters in Poland and Portugal also cast their ballots in a European electoral 'super Sunday'. The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU -critical, Trump-admiring populist against a centrist independent in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country's post-communist history. George Simion, a former soccer ultra and ultranationalist agitator who sees his far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party as a 'natural ally' of the US Maga movement, comfortably won the May 4th first round with a score of 41 per cent, double that of the Bucharest mayor, Nicuşor Dan. Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Mr Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between 'a pro-western and an anti-western Romania' – ahead. READ MORE 'This election isn't just about the president of Romania but about its entire direction,' said Siegfried Mureşan, a liberal Romanian MEP. Mr Simion would 'weaken Europe's unity, undermine support for Ukraine, and benefit only Vladimir Putin,' he added. In Poland, 13 contenders are vying to be the country's next head of state in the first round of presidential elections, with the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a senior member of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition, the front-runner. Polls predict that Mr Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is formally independent but has been endorsed by the former national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, will advance to the second round, which is due on June 1st. A win for the centrist would boost Mr Tusk's ability to push through his reformist agenda, which has been hampered by Polish presidents' power to veto legislation passed by parliament. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a PiS ally. Portugal, meanwhile, heads to the polls for its third snap general election in three years after the centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered and lost a confidence vote in parliament over questions about his family's business activities. Mr Montenegro's Democratic Alliance platform is forecast to finish first but fall short of a majority, and could struggle to form a government, especially if the Socialist party, likely to finish second, keeps its pledge to oppose his legislative agenda. Mr Montenegro has vowed not to work with the far-right Chega, whose leader, former TV football pundit André Ventura, was hospitalised on Friday after twice collapsing at rallies, but could be replaced as party leader with someone more Chega-compatible. In Romania, Mr Simion's first-round win triggered the collapse of Romania's government of centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL), and whoever wins will nominate the next prime minister and influence the formation of a new ruling coalition. The vote is a rerun of last November's ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling. Mr Simion has promised to nominate Mr Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president. Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations. Analysts have said that since neither PSD or PNL would want a snap election with Mr Simion's AUR – the second biggest party in parliament – in the ascendant, a minority AUR-led government, backed perhaps by PSD, is a clear possibility if Mr Simion wins. Mr Simion opposes further aid to Ukraine and has sharply criticised the EU's leadership. While he insists he wants Romania to stay in the EU and Nato, he could ally with Hungary's Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico as another disruptive force. – Guardian
The Guardian
18-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Romanian run-off the most crucial on Europe's ‘Super Sunday' of elections
Romanians have started voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country's strategic alignment and economic prospects, as voters in Poland and Portugal also prepare to cast their ballots in a European electoral 'super Sunday'. The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist against a centrist independent in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country's post-communist history. George Simion, a former soccer ultra and ultranationalist agitator who sees his far-right AUR party as a 'natural ally' of the US Maga movement, comfortably won the 4 May first round with a score of 41%, double that of the Bucharest mayor, Nicuşor Dan. Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between 'a pro-western and an anti-western Romania' – ahead. 'This election isn't just about the president of Romania but about its entire direction,' said Siegfried Mureşan, a liberal Romanian MEP. Simion would 'weaken Europe's unity, undermine support for Ukraine, and benefit only Vladimir Putin,' he added. In Poland, 13 contenders are vying to be the country's next head of state in the first round of presidential elections, with the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a senior member of prime minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition, the frontrunner. Polls predict that Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, a historian who is formally independent but has been endorsed by the former national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government, will advance to the second round, which is due on 1 June. A win for the centrist would boost Tusk's ability to push through his reformist agenda, which has been hampered by Polish presidents' power to veto legislation passed by parliament. The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a PiS ally. Portugal, meanwhile, heads to the polls for its third snap general election in three years after the centre-right prime minister, Luís Montenegro, triggered and lost a confidence vote in parliament over questions about his family's business activities. Montenegro's Democratic Alliance (AD) platform is forecast to finish first but fall short of a majority, and could struggle to form a government, especially if the Socialist party (PS), likely to finish second, keeps its pledge to oppose his legislative agenda. Montenegro has vowed not to work with the far-right Chega, whose leader, former TV football pundit André Ventura, was hospitalised on Friday after twice collapsing at rallies, but could be replaced as party leader with someone more Chega-compatible. Simion's win triggered the collapse of Romania's government of centre-left Social Democrats (PSD) and centre-right Liberals (PNL), and whoever wins will nominate the next prime minister and influence the formation of a new ruling coalition. Sign up to This is Europe The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment after newsletter promotion The vote is a rerun of last November's ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling. Simion has promised to nominate Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president. Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations. Analysts have said that since neither PSD or PNL would want a snap election with Simion's AUR – the second biggest party in parliament – in the ascendant, a minority AUR-led government, backed perhaps by PSD, is a clear possibility if Simion wins. Simion opposes further aid to Ukraine and has sharply criticised the EU's leadership. While he insists he wants Romania to stay in the EU and Nato, he could ally with Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico as another disruptive force. 'Simion's election would mark a sea change in Romanian politics, creating significant risks to domestic stability, Bucharest-Brussels relations, and EU unity over Ukraine,' said Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. The prospect of a Simion win has spooked markets and investors, causing the Romanian leu to plunge and major foreign business chambers in Romania have warned of a 'rapid deterioration' in the business climate. Romania has the EU's highest budget deficit.
Bloomberg
16-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Tusk Ally Slides in Polls Before Polish Presidential Ballot
Support for Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski declined in the latest opinion surveys before Poland's presidential election on Sunday, signaling a closer race with the populist opposition and weakening stocks and the zloty. Trzaskowski, a centrist ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is backed by 30% of the electorate, according to an average of four surveys published on Friday. At the start of the week, he was polling around 33%. His nearest competitor, the candidate of the Law & Justice party Karol Nawrocki, is backed by around 25%, which has changed little in the past days.
Arab News
07-05-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
World peace and security in the balance once again
Societies throughout the world are at risk of repeating the mistakes of 80 years ago (File/AFP) Short Url This week, the world is celebrating the 80th anniversary of Europe's victory over Nazi fascism in the Second World War. However, after that victory was declared in early May 1945, all the warring parties — allies and foes, victors and vanquished — interpreted it in ways that best suited their narrative, or simply turned it into a purely ceremonial occasion. Today, the world looks as splintered and conflict-ridden as it did in the late 1930s. The protagonists on all sides, whether democratic or autocratic, seem to be caving under the weight of disappearing trust, diminishing legitimacy, limited resources and ever more persistent global warming. Meanwhile, the glaring gap between rich and poor is increasingly prominent, with no real efforts being made to bridge it. Will anyone seek to save the era of relative peace, prosperity and rule of law-based order that has existed for the past 80 years? For the victors in Europe who have been celebrating this week, the continent appears to be at the same point it was before the Second World War. The chaos overshadowing transatlantic relations, the war in Ukraine, the rise of ultranationalist and populist right politics, weak economic performance and ever lower satisfaction among the populace are a recipe for conflictive politics and an explosive, divisive narrative that could undermine European cohesion. The victims of Nazi atrocities in Europe are being remembered at ceremonies this week. Veterans who fought in the war may be appearing for the last time due to old age, as their numbers continue to dwindle. The questions on everybody's mind are how much the war is remembered and what lessons have been drawn from it. Societies throughout the world and, alarmingly, the youth in particular, seem to know little about history and are at risk of repeating the mistakes of 80 years ago or tolerating new ones being made. Societies throughout the world seem to know little about history and are at risk of repeating the mistakes of 80 years ago Mohamed Chebaro A simple reason for this is that the world system we live in seems to be under duress. One does not need to look very hard to see the killing fields dotting the world map today, accompanied by a deafening silence or even complicity. OK, one could easily point to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the appetite to reopen the history books and tap into nationalistic fervor by some actors to justify the invasion of another sovereign country. And it was only natural for others to try to uphold the rules of international law and order to try to support Ukraine in defending itself. But they have also failed miserably to defend innocents or uphold the same rules of international humanitarian law in other conflicts. Israel's continuing onslaught against Gaza is another conflict that demonstrates the breakdown of the rules-based order established 80 years ago. The absurd failure of the international community to exert pressure on Israel and stop the killing, destruction and starvation of Gaza, regardless of the gravity of what Hamas committed on Oct. 7, 2023, is no less a crime than those committed during the Second World War and that inspire the Victory in Europe Day commemorations. The same could be said about the thousands of victims of the Sudan war, which many believe was also avoidable. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing another conflict, not to mention Yemen, as well as other human-made so-called forever wars, just because they are complicated ethnic, tribal or religious conflicts, such as those in Afghanistan, Somalia and recently Syria or Myanmar. These seem ever harder to tackle, even with seasoned conflict-resolution and peacekeeping missions. A close friend recently asked me what else an activist could do to raise their voice and help stop the killing in Gaza and elsewhere. This friend voiced the concern, which is today shared by many people, that such wars are now tolerated and are even becoming normalized. For a moment, I felt unable to answer. Then I found myself repeating the need to keep engaging, believing and raising one's voice against carnage and injustice everywhere. Later, when I looked at the figures as I was researching this article, it became clear that the task of finding peace is really daunting — but there are not many choices. We live in an era in which the number of conflicts taking place keeps growing. According to the UN, more than 300 million people need humanitarian aid and protection. Meanwhile, resources continue to dwindle and paralysis grips the decision-making level due to the growing rivalries between major powers. Multilateralism is surely dying. It needs resuscitating to continue its efforts to open dialogues, attempt conflict resolution and mount crucial peace missions that might preserve some hope. In the complex world we live in, war and conflict are the products, not causes, of the global competition that has led to disorder Mohamed Chebaro Instead of cutting aid budgets and funding for international agencies, major powers ought to double down on funding crucial peacemaking and peacekeeping organizations, regardless of their lack of immediate impact in many cases. President Donald Trump's blunders in his tariff, culture and other wars reduce certainty and weaken resolve everywhere. The US is $1.2 billion in arrears to the UN's peacekeeping budget and maybe its funding will soon come to an end entirely. In the complex world we live in, war and conflict are the products, not causes, of the global competition that has led to disorder. The origins of this disorder are primarily political, ideological or interest-driven. It could be attributed to historical rivalries, recent acts of instability or even political fragmentation and the rejection of globalization and the old international rulebook. This disorder is compounded by a less-than-upstanding tech realm that is fueling toxic narratives and distortions of truth, thus empowering the rising tide of populism and authoritarian right-wing politics disguised as ultranationalism. But, in essence, it is primarily down to fear overcoming hope, resulting in a 'me-first' mantra and all the prejudice and loss of faith, trust and moral purpose that comes with it. Despite all that, despair could be the worst enemy for people all over the world. The Victory in Europe Day celebrations would be useless if people allowed themselves to be overwhelmed by the complexity and sheer volume of relentless, upsetting and challenging news stories. An 'I don't care' attitude and loss of empathy, as witnessed in many circles today, could undermine the actions of those who sacrificed their lives 80 years ago. Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years' experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
