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Los Angeles Times
2 days ago
- Science
- Los Angeles Times
Hollywood loves quake disaster flicks, but do we know what the real ‘Big One' will look like?
If you live in Southern California, there is an ever-present fear about the inevitable 'Big One,' the quake that seismologists say is coming, it's just a matter of time. And Hollywood has no problem reminding us of this existential threat: There was the ominous NBC miniseries in 1990, dubbed 'The Big One: The Great Los Angeles Earthquake,' that raked in the ratings and the 2015 action flick San Andreas, plus the Universal Studios Hollywood's 'Big One' earthquake ride (based on a San Francisco quake) that paints a violent and thrilling end. But we don't need Hollywood to remind us. Many suffered through real damaging earthquakes that weren't quite 'The Big One': 1987 Whittier Narrows (5.9), 1992 Landers (7.3), 1994 Northridge (6.7) and the 1999 Hector Mine (7.1), to name a few. The memory of those quakes, however, nor the imagination of Hollywood will probably match the 'Big One' when it finally hits, according to my colleague Rong-Gong Lin II who wrote about this recently. So, what can we expect when California's next mega-earthquake strikes along the San Andreas fault? That's the implication of a study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer reviewed journal. The report, co-authored by scientists at Caltech in Pasadena, studied a massive earthquake that struck the Southeast Asian country of Myanmar on March 28 — along a fault known for being eerily similar to California's San Andreas. The earthquake ended up rupturing a much longer section of the fault than scientists expected, given the seismology of the region. The implications of this study are that 'earthquakes never come back exactly the same way,' Solene L. Antoine, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech and the study's lead author, said in an interview. March's Mandalay earthquake devastated Myanmar, killing at least 3,791 people and an additional 63 people in Thailand. High-rise buildings were damaged as far away as Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam along with homes in the Ruili area of China. Damage was estimated at $1.9 billion, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. It was the most powerful earthquake in Myanmar in at least 79 years. What's clear from the study is that while California's next 'Big One' may share some characteristics of previously documented devastating quakes, it's unlikely to be an exact replay. As the recent experience in Myanmar shows, even well-documented faults can behave in surprising ways. Maybe the San Andreas fault will rupture in smaller, separate earthquakes, said Jean-Philippe Avouac, a co-author of the study and a professor of geology and mechanical and civil engineering at Caltech. Or it could be a much larger earthquake — rupturing the fault not just from Monterey to Los Angeles counties, but perhaps all the way east into San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties. Such a quake would possibly exceed magnitude 8 and rank as the largest simultaneous disaster in modern California history, with huge swaths of the state racked by powerful seismic shaking all at once. Modeling previous activity on the San Andreas fault will offer a glimpse into the wide range of possible outcomes, but it will not pinpoint precisely when the next great quake will strike. 'We can't just expect the exact same thing to happen,' Antoine said. 'It is a matter of just showing what scenarios are possible, the diversity of scenarios and seeing what are the consequences of each of those scenarios.' And that means Hollywood has plenty of fodder for more disaster films. This was a small excerpt from the full article, which can be found here. Have a great weekend, from the Essential California team Jim Rainey, staff writerDiamy Wang, homepage internIzzy Nunes, audience internKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorAndrew J. Campa, reporterKarim Doumar, head of newsletters How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Los Angeles Times
26-06-2025
- Health
- Los Angeles Times
More measles cases in California this year than reported in all of 2024
California has already reported more measles cases this year than in all of 2024, a worrisome development that comes as the nation is suffering its biggest outbreak of the super-infectious disease in extent of the national outbreak has rocketed measles from a back-of-mind issue, one rarely if ever encountered by a whole generation of Americans, to a pressing public health concern. Los Angeles Times reporter Rong-Gong Lin II breaks down the state of measles in California and the nation.
Los Angeles Times
01-05-2025
- Science
- Los Angeles Times
Sunken coastline and higher flooding risks: Scientists chart a worst-quake scenario
Good morning. Here's what you need to know to start your day. The Cascadia subduction zone might not be on the minds of most Californians, but it was for more than a dozen geologists and other scientists in a recent study analyzing flood risks along the Pacific coast. Sea-level rise is the typical focus of such studies, but the authors focused on another hazard that experts say is a matter of when, not if: a megaquake. According to the study, when the next magnitude 8-plus temblor occurs along the Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from Northern California up to Canada's Vancouver Island, it could cause sudden subsidence (aka land sinking) of 1.6 to 6.6 feet, dramatically heightening flood risk. 'Earthquake deformation modeling and geospatial analysis show that [land sinking] from a great earthquake at Cascadia today could double the flood exposure of residents, structures, and roads,' the authors wrote. The study, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concluded that the worst-case quake scenario would expand the area at risk of flooding by 116 square miles. That's 2½ times the size of San Francisco, The Times' expert earthquake reporter Rong-Gong Lin II noted in his coverage this week. 'Traditionally, scientists and government officials have focused on climate-change-driven sea-level rise to calculate the projected increased risk of coastal flooding,' Ron explained, 'But the study argues that neglecting the role of major earthquakes would be shortsighted.' Some parts of the Pacific coastline are already sinking, 'amplifying local relative sea-level rise (RSLR),' the authors noted. That includes California's Humboldt Bay area, which is sinking at the highest rate along the whole Pacific coastline, according to the study. The Humboldt Bay region, which includes the area around Eureka and Arcata, was identified in the study as especially prone to major land sinking in the event of a megaquake. Several other communities along the Oregon and Washington's coastline were also highlighted. This from the study caught my eye: Some areas along the Pacific coastline are actually rising slowly due to how the tectonic plates are moving. For now, that's a bit of a buffer against sea-level rise, but it won't last much longer, the authors wrote. 'By [about] 2030, rates of climate-driven sea-level rise are expected to outpace gradual uplift,' the study states, adding that over the 70 years after that, sea levels are projected to rise roughly 1 to 3 feet. You can read more about the study and the history of major quakes in Ron's full story. L.A. County approves a $4-billion sex abuse settlement, the largest in U.S. history LAFD union head made $540,000 in a year, with huge overtime payouts What else is going on Get unlimited access to the Los Angeles Times. Subscribe here. Hauntingly beautiful tintype photos memorialize what was lost in Altadena. While everyone's seen images of the devastation, no photographers have captured the sadness quite as well as Sunny Mills, a set decorator who lost her home in the fire. Skilled in tintype photography, Mills has leaned into her hobby since Jan. 7, using a pair of cameras she was given and whatever nervous energy she has to head out into the community, shooting pictures of Altadenans with the structures they've lost. Other must reads How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@ Going out Staying in On May 1, 1971, Amtrak began service, operating nearly all intercity passenger trains in the United States. In California, traveling by car is the most popular way to travel. But the train is the best mode of vacation transportation. Last spring, The Times published seven epic day trips to take by train from Union Station. Have a great day, from the Essential California team Ryan Fonseca, reporterAndrew Campa, Sunday reporterKevinisha Walker, multiplatform editorChristian Orozco, assistant editorKarim Doumar, head of newsletters Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on
Yahoo
14-02-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Series of small earthquakes shake Bay Area near Hayward fault
A magnitude 3.7 earthquake shook the Bay Area city of Hayward just before 2 p.m. Thursday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The temblor followed three earlier small earthquakes — a magnitude 2.7 that struck near the Hayward fault at 5:03 a.m., followed by a magnitude 3.3 at 11:52 a.m., then a 3.2 at 11:54 a.m. The epicenter for each was about one mile east of the East Bay city, the agency said. The first quake occurred at a depth of about 3.3 miles; the second, 3.5 miles; the third, 3.8 miles; and the fourth, 4.4 miles. About 4,000 people reported feeling the largest of the four quakes, according to the USGS. Light shaking was felt around Hayward. Residents in Vallejo to the north and Sunnyvale and San Jose to the south reported weak shaking. Previous reports from the USGS have noted the danger posed by the Hayward fault. Though less of a household name than the San Andreas fault, the Hayward fault poses a significant risk, the agency said in a 2018 report. The Hayward fault is particularly dangerous because it runs through some of the most heavily populated parts of the Bay Area, spanning the length of the East Bay from the San Pablo Bay through Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward, Fremont and into Milpitas. An average of 234 earthquakes with magnitudes between 3.0 and 4.0 occur each year in California and Nevada, according to a recent three-year data sample. Quakebot, a computer application that monitors the latest earthquakes detected by the USGS, contributed to this article. If you're interested in learning more about the system, visit our list of frequently asked questions. Are you ready for when the Big One hits? Get ready for the next big earthquake by signing up for our Unshaken newsletter, which breaks down emergency preparedness into bite-sized steps over six weeks. Learn more about earthquake kits, which apps you need, Lucy Jones' most important advice and more at Times staff writer Rong-Gong Lin II contributed to this report. Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
