Latest news with #Subbarao
Indian Express
5 days ago
- Business
- Indian Express
India can weather even a 50 bps growth sacrifice but for a year: Former RBI governor D Subbarao
Indian Economy, US Tariff on India: The hike in US tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent is likely to have significant medium to long term implications for India, said D Subbarao, veteran economist, author and former governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Presently, exports account for about 22 per cent of India's GDP, with the US contributing approximately 17 per cent to that export share. Subbarao feels that India may be able to weather even a 50 basis points sacrifice in growth for a year because it is still a fast-growing economy. A hit of 40 to 50 basis points means a GDP growth that is down from 6.5 per cent to 6.1 per cent or even 6 per cent. However, in the medium to longer term, which is beyond a year, India cannot afford to sacrifice this 50 basis points on a year-on-year basis. This is all the more crucial for India, being a growing economy that has aspirations for a seat at the high table of rich nations be a $ 30 trillion economy. To get there, growth in the early years has to be high as high growth on a larger base in later years will be difficult. 'A 50 bps loss each year, will, in the long run upset the country's long-term objective to emerge as a Viksit Bharat or a developed economy by 2047,' he says. 'People are talking about the need to diversify our exports to other geographies, explore newer sources of exports, improve the infrastructure in the country to attract more tourists for instance, enter into free trade agreements with other countries and trading blocks,' says Dr Subbarao. 'All of these,' he says, 'we must pursue irrespective of what happens in the trade with the US.' Some of these could include concluding FTAs with EU, East Asian nations or joining the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership). The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between a dozen countries – Australia, Brunei, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam apart from the United Kingdom. Impact at the disaggregated level But on the implications of the latest news on the levies announced by the US (while we are still unaware of what the final negotiations will yield) what Dr Subbarao also finds significant is that the current numbers, apart from the impact at an aggregate level on the growth rate of the economy, also entail an adverse impact at a disaggregated level and especially on the low income segments of the population. 'This is because the hit will be in labour-intensive sectors like machinery and gems and jewellery that form major part of the exports to the US. Add to this, if India were to pivot from Russia to Saudi Arabia, for sourcing its petroleum needs, the aggregate cost of oil will increase for India and this will impact the inflation rate and the entire economy with higher impact on low-income households,' he says. Also, Dr Subbarao reminds, 'higher oil prices globally will reflect in lowering of demand and thereby lower the global growth rates, which in turn, could have adverse implications for India. Interrogate the internet or tap the easily accessible AI assistants and various numbers are being discussed. For example, there are estimates that suggest the negative impact on the exports to the US resulting in a decline in exports by as much as 40 per cent. A back of the envelope calculation of the net impact on the GDP taking into consideration also the export value to the US, the GVA (gross value added) of exports, will throw up a number of around US $ 20 billion for a full year but if, as several economists and industry leaders expect, nearly half of that could be offset by the other alternatives that the country could explore, the net direct impact would at most be 0.4 per cent of GDP (which today is at nearly $ 4 trillion). Hence, the argument doing the rounds is that India would be in a position to weather the impact. But the point Dr Subbarao is making is that this may not be sustainable in the medium to longer term and this is crucial given India's long term high growth, developed economy, aspirations. (
NDTV
30-05-2025
- Politics
- NDTV
Ex-RBI Governor Calls For Reforms In UPSC Exam, Proposes Age, Attempt Limits
Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Dr Duvvuri Subbarao has called for major reforms in the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) Civil Services Examination (CSE). He recommended significant changes, including an age cap, limits on the number of attempts, and the creation of a new entry channel for professionals in their 40s. In his opinion piece in The Times of India, Dr Subbarao highlighted what he described as a "colossal waste of human potential" under the current system, where aspirants spend years preparing for a highly competitive exam with limited chances of success. "For every successful candidate, there are at least 10 others who too have invested years in preparation but have failed to make the grade. They are back at square one. An abysmal waste of productive years?" he wrote. Dr Subbarao proposed two key reforms. First, he advocated a reduction in both the maximum number of attempts and the upper age limit. Currently, aspirants can take the exam up to six times between the ages of 21 and 32. He suggested this should be limited to three attempts and the age cap reduced to 27. "Lakhs compete for a thousand-odd positions, making the chance of success extremely small. Yet candidates keep at it till they exhaust all their allowed attempts, even as the odds are stacked against them. This is a colossal waste of human potential. It also pushes many candidates into deep financial and psychological turmoil," he said. He warned that the current framework leads aspirants to fall prey to the 'sunk cost fallacy'. "After all, they are susceptible to the 'sunk cost fallacy'-'I've invested so much time, money and effort. All that will go waste if I give up now. Maybe I will succeed this time round.'" Reflecting on his own experience in the 1970s, when the exam allowed only two attempts within the 21-24 age band, Subbarao said the system has now "gone too far" in the other direction. He also cautioned that too many attempts favour those who master exam techniques over those with genuine aptitude. "Any examination that allows as many as six chances is likely to privilege mastery of exam technique over inherent merit," he wrote. His second proposal is the introduction of a structured, annual Tier-2 recruitment channel for experienced professionals aged 40-42. Unlike current lateral entries, this route would function as a permanent part of the UPSC system. "They can pursue other careers and take another shot at the exam mid-career," he wrote, adding that such candidates would bring valuable external perspectives to governance. "Tier-2 recruits will make up for these lacunae and make the civil service collectively more relevant and useful, and maybe even more caring." Dr Subbarao emphasised that his proposals are not aimed at dismantling the existing entry route for younger candidates. "There is a lot to be said for continuing to recruit young people into the IAS. They bring in youthful spirit, raw enthusiasm, and unspoilt enterprise into administration." While acknowledging that the civil services examination has evolved significantly over the decades, the former RBI Governor said, "The civil service exam has vastly improved from the time I took it over 50 years ago. But there is still a need to push the envelope."
Economic Times
30-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
UPSC makes important changes to application process for all exams: Check the new four-part structure and new website
The UPSC has launched a new online application portal with a four-part structure to streamline the registration process for all future examinations. This system allows candidates to complete common information sections in advance, saving time and preventing last-minute congestion. The previous OTR module is discontinued, and applicants are advised to use their Aadhaar card for ID verification. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads UPSC Four-part structure for easier access Move to save time and avoid last-minute rush Previous OTR module discontinued Aadhaar card based ID verification Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads New portal to be used for upcoming exams Former RBI Governor calls for UPSC exam reforms Concerns over lost productive years and exam pressure Advocates mid-career IAS entry route and streamlined youth recruitment The Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) has launched a new online portal for registration and application submission for all future examinations. According to the official notice, the new UPSC Online Application Portal is structured in four parts, each shown as a separate card on the per the UPSC notification, 'The UPSC Online Application Portal has four parts, arranged in 4 separate cards at the home page, three of which namely, Account Creation, Universal Registration and Common Application Form contains information which are common to all examinations and can be filled anytime by the candidates. The fourth part i.e. Examination contains examination notices, Examination Application and applications status. Only examination specific information is to be filled up in this part by candidates during the time period allowed in the notification of an examination.'The commission stated that this new system is designed to allow candidates to complete the first three sections in advance and keep their profiles ready. This is expected to save time and prevent congestion near the closing dates of application has asked all applicants to freshly register and upload necessary documents on the new portal at The older One Time Registration (OTR) module will no longer be identity verification, candidates have been 'strongly advised to use their Aadhar Card as ID document in the Universal Application for easy, effortless and seamless verification and authentication of ID and other details.' According to the commission, this will act as a standard and permanent record for all UPSC has confirmed that applications for the CDS II and NDA & NA II exams for 2025 will be accepted only through the new online more details and updates, candidates should visit the official UPSC Subbarao, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has proposed significant changes to the recruitment system for India's civil services. Writing in The Times of India, he recommended reducing both the upper age limit and the number of attempts for the UPSC Civil Services Examination. He also suggested the introduction of a structured, annual mid-career entry route into the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) for professionals in their early on the 2024 civil service results, Subbarao congratulated successful candidates but raised concerns about the long-term impact on those who do not qualify after repeated attempts. 'For every successful candidate, there are at least ten others who too have invested years in preparation but have failed to make the grade. They are back at square one. An abysmal waste of productive years?' he wrote. He criticised the current policy of allowing six attempts up to age 32, saying it encourages aspirants to keep preparing due to the 'sunk cost fallacy.'Subbarao called for limiting the number of attempts to three and reducing the upper age limit to 27. He also proposed a permanent, annual IAS entry channel for mid-career professionals aged 40–42. 'They can pursue other careers and take another shot at the exam mid-career,' he noted. While supporting continued recruitment of young candidates, he emphasised that the system should be modernised. 'The civil service exam has vastly improved from the time I took it over 50 years ago. But there is still a need to push the envelope.'
Time of India
29-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
‘Abysmal waste': Former RBI Governor D Subbarao explains why UPSC urgently needs a reform
'Abysmal waste of productive years' Age limit and attempt reduction suggested Live Events Structured mid-career entry path proposed Keep youth entry but modernise process (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Duvvuri Subbarao, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has recommended major changes to the recruitment process for the Indian civil services. In a recent opinion piece in The Times of India, he suggested reducing the upper age limit and number of attempts for the UPSC Civil Services Examination. He also proposed a separate annual entry path into the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) for experienced professionals in their early on the recently declared 2024 civil service results, Subbarao congratulated the selected candidates but raised concerns about the large number of aspirants who fail after years of preparation.'The civil service results for 2024 are out. Congratulations to the thousand-odd candidates who have got through what is arguably one of the most competitive exams in the world,' he highlighted the toll on those who are unsuccessful. 'For every successful candidate, there are at least ten others who too have invested years in preparation but have failed to make the grade. They are back at square one. An abysmal waste of productive years?'Subbarao criticised the current policy that allows up to six attempts between the ages of 21 and 32. He said many aspirants continue preparing despite repeated failures due to the psychological pressure of sunk costs."After all, they are susceptible to the 'sunk cost fallacy' — 'I've invested so much time, money and effort. All that will go waste if I give up now. Maybe I will succeed this time round,'' he said this leads many to spend their most productive years in repeated attempts, and called on the government to limit attempts to three and reduce the upper age to 27. Citing his own experience from the 1970s, he said only two attempts were allowed between ages 21 and 24. He added, 'this levelling has gone too far.'He also argued that allowing six attempts gives an advantage to those who master exam techniques rather than those with inherent merit. 'There is another argument in favour of curtailing the number of allowed attempts. Any examination that allows as many as six chances is likely to privilege mastery of the exam technique over inherent merit,' he wrote, adding that the process is prone to "type I and type II errors."Subbarao's second major suggestion is an alternative annual entry route into the IAS for professionals aged 40–42. This would be a permanent and competitive channel, separate from the current ad-hoc lateral entry system.'They can pursue other careers and take another shot at the exam mid-career,' he said mid-career professionals can bring experience and a fresh perspective to governance. 'Tier 2 recruits will make up for these lacunae and make the civil service collectively more relevant and useful, and maybe even more caring.'Subbarao said the current system for young aspirants should remain, but needs reform. 'There is a lot to be said for continuing to recruit young people into the IAS. They bring in youthful spirit, raw enthusiasm and unspoilt enterprise into administration.'In conclusion, he acknowledged improvements over the years but stressed the need for further reform. 'The civil service exam has vastly improved from the time I took it over 50 years ago. But there is still a need to push the envelope.'
Hans India
24-04-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Simhachalam temple hundi nets Rs 1.81 cr
Visakhapatnam: The hundi of Sri Varaha Lakshmi Narasimha Swamy Devasthanam temple netted an income of Rs 1.81crore in the past 28 days. The hundi counting exercise was carried out at the temple premises in the presence of Executive Officer Subbarao here on Wednesday. As a part of the counting process, a total of 28 hundis were counted under the supervision of the temple officials. About 145-gram of gold, 250-gm of silver and currency notes from different countries, including UAE, Oman, England, Qatar, Kuwait, Singapore and Malaysia were received.
